Northwestern vs. USC Prediction Tonight: Betting Preview & Odds for Friday
My Northwestern vs. USC prediction tonight digs into why I expect Lincoln Riley to help keep his squad's College Football Playoff hopes alive on Friday.
No. 19 USC is a 14.5-point betting favorite ahead of the 9 p.m. ET kickoff at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (FOX). My college football Week 11 predictions back the home favorite to cover the sizeable spread while also offering a best prop bet for one of the Trojans' wideouts.
✅ Northwestern vs. USC prediction & expert picks
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🏈 Northwestern vs. USC preview & score prediction
Northwestern was supposed to be one of the worst Power Four teams in the country this season; instead, David Braun has the Wildcats one win away from bowl eligibility. However, Northwestern's 5-3 record is slightly misleading, with the Wildcats ranking No. 46 in the country in resume, according to SP+.
With an offense that's ranked No. 101 in SP+, the Wildcats should struggle to take advantage of an inconsistent USC defense. Braun's squad is 1-2 on the road and averaging just 15.3 PPG in those games, and Northwestern isn't built to play from behind with starting QB Preston Stone having the fifth-most turnover-worthy plays in the country (16) and holding the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate of P4 QBs with at least 100 dropbacks (67.5%).
Maiava madness
While Braun's defensive background has helped Northwestern handle lesser offenses, USC is a different story. The Trojans' offense is ranked No. 3 by SP+, and the only other team that the Wildcats have played that was ranked in the top 10 was Oregon - a team Northwestern lost to by 20 at home.
In Northwestern's last game, Nebraska (No. 42 offense by SP+) dropped 28 on the Wildcats, and that's a program that scored a combined 23 points in the games before (Minnesota) and after its win against the Wildcats (USC). So, slowing Jayden Maiava, who's No. 2 in QBR (90.3) and No. 4 in big-time throw rate (7.1), and his plethora of weapons will be a tall task for Northwestern.
The Trojans have too much offensive firepower for Northwestern to keep up, with players like Makai Lemon, Ja'Kobi Lane, and King Miller. If USC can cover the spread for the fourth time in five games (51.22% probability), a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit.
Score prediction: USC 34, Northwestern 17
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🆚 Northwestern vs. USC matchup to watch
Makai Lemon vs. Northwestern secondary
Few receivers have been as impactful as Lemon this season, who has played his way into being a potential first-round pick in April. Lemon is top three in the Big Ten in receiving yards (776), yards per route run (3.29), YAC (383), and forced missed tackles on receptions (16).
He's proven to be a mismatch out of the slot, where he's played 69.7% of his snaps, and that should be a problem for Northwestern. Wildcats' starting nickel, Braden Turner, has allowed a 101.3 NFL QB rating when targeted in slot coverage this season.
Meanwhile, Lemon has been at his best in the City of Angels, averaging seven receptions for 117 yards in four home games this season. He's gone Over 89.5 receiving yards in every home game this season, including against a Michigan defense that's ranked No. 9 by SP+.
If he does it again (53.27% probability), a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit. Our Matt Jacob is also eyeing Lemon as part of his Northwestern vs. USC player props.
Best prop bet: Makai Lemon Over 89.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel)
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📈 Northwestern vs. USC betting trends
| Northwestern | Statistic | USC |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | W-L record | 6-2 |
| 5-2-1 | ATS record | 4-4 |
| 2-6 | O/U record | 4-4 |
| 5.5 | Yards per play | 7.6 |
| 5.3 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6 |
| -0.5 | Turnover margin | +0.2 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
| L, 28-21 vs. Nebraska | Previous result | W, 21-17 vs. Nebraska |
🌤️ Northwestern vs. USC weather
The weather in Los Angeles on Friday night will be about as perfect as it gets for football. The forecast calls for 0% precipitation and southeast winds of just 6 mph, with wind gusts getting up to only 7 mph. The temperature should be perfect at 65 degrees.
📺 How to watch Northwestern vs. USC
- Date: Friday, Nov. 7
- Kickoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles)
- TV: FOX
💡 College football expert picks: Friday
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