Northwestern vs. USC Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 11 Betting Preview

In a rematch of the 1996 Rose Bowl, my Northwestern vs. USC prediction expects the Trojans to come out on top once again, as Lincoln Riley tries to keep his team's College Football Playoff hopes alive against an overachieving Wildcats program.

The No. 19 Trojans are a 14.5-point betting favorite at home, and my college football Week 11 predictions think USC has too much firepower to not win in a big way on Friday at 9 p.m. ET from Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in L.A.

✅ Northwestern vs. USC prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11.

📊 Northwestern vs. USC odds

See live college football odds for every game in Week 11.

🏈 Northwestern vs. USC preview & score prediction

Northwestern was supposed to be one of the worst Power Four teams in the country this season; instead, David Braun has the Wildcats one win away from bowl eligibility. However, Northwestern's 5-3 record is slightly misleading, with the Wildcats ranking No. 46 in the country in resume, according to SP+.

With an offense that's ranked No. 101 in SP+, the Wildcats should struggle to take advantage of an inconsistent USC defense. Braun's squad is 1-2 on the road and averaging just 15.3 PPG in those games, and Northwestern isn't built to play from behind with starting QB Preston Stone having the fifth-most turnover-worthy plays in the country (16) and holding the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate of P4 QBs with at least 100 dropbacks (67.5%).

Maiava madness

While Braun's defensive background has helped Northwestern handle lesser offenses, USC is a different story. The Trojans' offense is ranked No. 3 by SP+, and the only other team that the Wildcats have played that was ranked in the top 10 was Oregon - a team Northwestern lost to by 20 at home.

In Northwestern's last game, Nebraska (No. 42 offense by SP+) dropped 28 on the Wildcats, and that's a program that scored a combined 23 points in the games before (Minnesota) and after its win against the Wildcats (USC). So, slowing Jayden Maiava, who's No. 2 in QBR (90.3) and No. 4 in big-time throw rate (7.1), and his plethora of weapons will be a tall task for Northwestern.

The Trojans have too much offensive firepower for Northwestern to keep up, with players like Makai Lemon, Ja'Kobi Lane, and King Miller. If USC can cover the spread for the fourth time in five games (51.22% probability), a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit.

Score prediction: USC 34, Northwestern 17

🆚 Northwestern vs. USC matchup to watch

Makai Lemon vs. Northwestern secondary

Few receivers have been as impactful as Lemon this season, who has played his way into being a potential first-round pick in April. Lemon is top three in the Big Ten in receiving yards (776), yards per route run (3.29), YAC (383), and forced missed tackles on receptions (16).

He's proven to be a mismatch out of the slot, where he's played 69.7% of his snaps, and that should be a problem for Northwestern. Wildcats' starting nickel, Braden Turner, has allowed a 101.3 NFL QB rating when targeted in slot coverage this season.

Meanwhile, Lemon has been at his best in the City of Angels, averaging seven receptions for 117 yards in four home games this season. He's gone Over 89.5 receiving yards in every home game this season, including against a Michigan defense that's ranked No. 9 by SP+.

If he does it again (53.27% probability), a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit.

Best prop bet: Makai Lemon Over 89.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel)

📈 Northwestern vs. USC betting trends

🌤️ Northwestern vs. USC weather

The weather in Los Angeles on Friday night will be about as perfect as it gets for football. The forecast calls for 0% precipitation and southeast winds of just 6 mph, with wind gusts getting up to only 7 mph. The temperature should be perfect at 65 degrees.

📺 How to watch Northwestern vs. USC

• Date: Friday, Nov. 7
• Kickoff: 9 p.m. ET
• Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles)
• TV: FOX