Northern Illinois vs. Toledo Prediction: Tonight's College Football Week 11 Betting Preview & Odds

Tonight's MACtion features at least one team that doesn't have a losing record, as Toledo (4-4) hosts Northern Illinois. My Northern Illinois vs. Toledo prediction breaks down all the action ahead of kickoff from the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio, at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2).

Toledo is 14-point betting favorite, but my college football Week 11 predictions are more interested in the total in what looks to be a defensive slugfest.

✅ Northern Illinois vs. Toledo prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11.

📊 Northern Illinois vs. Toledo odds

See live college football odds for every game in Week 11.

🏈 Northern Illinois vs. Toledo preview & score prediction

Toledo was expected to challenge for a MAC title this year, but now needs help to make it to the conference championship game in Detroit in December. 

The Rockets disappointingly lost two games as double-digit favorites this season. Since they have lost more games outright as heavy favorites than any other FBS team in head coach Jason Candle’s tenure, the Under is the best play as opposed to laying the two-touchdown spread.

Toledo’s defense is stout

Toledo lost its last game 28-7 to Washington State, but it did limit the Cougars to 321 total yards and 3.7 yards per carry.

While Washington State is one of the lone Pac-12 holdovers, it still has power conference talent, so I prefer to judge Toledo against competition similar to its level. Entering that game against the Cougars, the Rockets had allowed just 2.7 yards per carry, while its secondary that had excellent coverage grades allowed just 140 passing yards per game.

Northern Illinois prefers to play in grind-it-out games while cashing the Under in six of its eight contests. Its best chance of an upset is to keep scoring at a minimum, which it did in last year’s 13-6 defensive struggle.

The Under is juiced to -110 at 52.38% implied odds across the market, and would net $9.09 on a winning $10 wager. Our Rob Paul has more on why the Under is the play in this matchup with his MAC best bets.

Score prediction: Toledo 24, Northern Illinois 13

🆚 Northern Illinois vs. Toledo matchup to watch

John Holst vs. Toledo secondary

Northern Illinois’ John Holst’s 602 passing yards are the fewest of any MAC starting quarterback. He faces a Toledo secondary that grades as the best, per PFF. The Rockets also entered their last game ranked 11th in FBS in EPA per Pass allowed and 32nd in Pass Success Rate allowed.

The Huskies are not likely to sustain many long drives, as they rank 123rd in third down percentage, while Toledo allows opponents to convert just 30.6% of their third-down opportunities, ranking top 15 in the country.

There are no player props available as of this writing, but these trends have me backing the Under on Northern Illinois’ team total. 

All markets are in unison with the O/U of 13.5, but FanDuel is the only top sports betting site charging less than the standard -110 juice. Its -106 odds carry a 51.46% implied probability, and would net $9.43 on a $10 wager if the Huskies score 13 or fewer points.

Best prop bet:Northern Illinois team total Under 13.5 (-106 via FanDuel)

📈 Northern Illinois vs. Toledo betting trends

🌤️ Northern Illinois vs. Toledo weather

Temperatures will drop into the mid-30s in Toledo on Wednesday night. Wind gusts will blow up to 20 mph, but any precipitation that is predicted for earlier in the day will clear out by kickoff.

📺 How to watch Northern Illinois vs. Toledo

• Date: Wednesday, Nov. 5
• Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
• Location: Glass Bowl (Toledo, Ohio)
• TV: ESPN2