North Texas vs. San Diego State Predictions & Odds | 2025 New Mexico Bowl Best Bet & TD Pick
This is a clash of styles with the best Group of Six offense taking on the best G6 defense in the New Mexico Bowl, and my North Texas vs. San Diego State predictions expect the Mean Green's playmakers to win the day.
North Texas is a 6-point betting favorite for today's 5:45p.m. ET (ESPN) New Mexico Bowl from University Stadium in Albuquerque, N.M., in the the 14th bowl game featured in our college football predictions this week.
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🏈 North Texas vs. San Diego State predictions: 2025 New Mexico Bowl
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| Best bets | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| North Texas -6.5 | -110 via bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Caleb Hawkins 2+ TDs | -105 via bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 North Texas vs. San Diego State best bet
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North Texas -6.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Despite head coach Eric Morris leaving for Oklahoma State, it appears North Texas will have most of its best offensive players for the New Mexico Bowl. Led by Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins, and Wyatt Young, the Mean Green are ranked No. 1 in the country on offense by SP+ and average the most PPG in the nation (44.8).
And while San Diego State has an elite defense, its offense will give it next to no support with starting QB Jayden Denegal and star receiver Jordan Napier out.
UNT is among the best teams in the country ATS (10-3).
Score prediction: North Texas 27, San Diego State 10
🙌 Best North Texas vs. San Diego State touchdown pick: New Mexico Bowl
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Caleb Hawkins, RB, North Texas: 2+ TDs (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
There isn't a player I enjoy betting on to score more than Hawkins, even when he's minus-money to score multiple times. With Hawkins expected to be good to go in the New Mexico Bowl after being banged up in the American Championship, I'm going back to the well.
Hawkins is having a historic season. He leads the country in touchdowns (26) and ranks top 10 in rushing yards after contact (907), forced missed tackles (79), and receiving yards among running backs (345).
No player has had more multi-touchdown games than Hawkins this season, with seven on his resume. Even more jaw-dropping? He's scored three or more in four of his last five - you can get him at +300 via bet365 to score thrice against SDSU.
He's been a walking touchdown all season, and even against San Diego State's defense, that shouldn't change, especially with the Aztecs' defensive coordinator, Rob Aurich, leaving for Nebraska.
📝 Top NFL draft prospects for New Mexico Bowl
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| Player | Position | Key stats | NFL draft grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson, San Diego State | CB | Allowing a 16.1 NFL QB rating in coverage | Round 2-3 |
| Trey White, San Diego State | EDGE | 10.5 TFLs, 7 sacks | Round 6-UDFA |
| Lucky Sutton, San Diego State | RB | 1,237 rushing yards, 10 TDs | Round 7-UDFA |
| Ethan Wesloski, North Texas | LB | 104 tackles, 9 TFLs | UDFA |
| Gabe Blair, North Texas | OG | 2 sacks, 13 pressures allowed | UDFA |
📊 Live North Texas vs. San Diego State odds: New Mexico Bowl
North Texas vs. San Diego State opening odds
- Moneyline: North Texas +140 | San Diego State -165
- Spread: North Texas +3.5 (-110) | San Diego State -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110)
📈 North Texas vs. San Diego State betting trends
| North Texas | Statistic | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2 | W-L record | 9-3 |
| 10-3 | ATS record | 9-3 |
| 9-4 | O/U record | 3-9 |
| 7.3 | Yards per play | 5.4 |
| 5.3 | Yards allowed per play | 4.1 |
| +0.6 | Turnover margin | +0.3 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
| L, 34-21 vs. Tulane | Previous result | L, 23-17 vs. New Mexico |
📺 How to watch North Texas vs. San Diego State: New Mexico Bowl
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 27
- Kickoff: 5:45 p.m. ET
- Location: University Stadium (Albuquerque, N.M.)
- TV: ESPN
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