College Football Week 11 Expert Picks

These expert college football picks for Week 11 from our Sportsbook Review analysts is your one-stop shop for Saturday’s action. Our college football picks are based on the top NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps.

The College Football Playoff is starting to take shape, but these final weeks will determine which teams really stand a chance to contend for a national championship. Michigan needs to take care of business against Penn State to stay in the CFP picture during one of the several showdowns with postseason implications in Week 11.

Our college football experts have put together their favorite predictions for many of the marquee matchups on Saturday. For more betting coverage from this crew, check out our Week 11 predictions, Week 11 upset picks, Week 11 parlay, Week 11 best bets, and Week 11 college football player props.

Check out our college football Week 11 predictions and college football best bets, to accompany our best college football expert picks for Week 11 (odds via our best college football betting sites; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College football Top 25 schedule

(Odds via FanDuel)

• No. 2 Michigan (-4.5) at No. 9 Penn State
• No. 8 Alabama (-10.5) at Kentucky
• Texas Tech at No. 19 Kansas (-3.5)
• No. 23 Arizona (-10.5) at Colorado
• No. 14 Tennessee (-1.5) at No. 16 Missouri
• No. 15 Oklahoma State (-2.5) at UCF
• No. 13 Utah at No. 5 Washington (-8.5)
• Stanford at No. 12 Oregon State (-20.5)
• West Virginia at No. 17 Oklahoma (-13.5)
• No. 10 Mississippi at No. 1 Georgia (-10.5)
• No. 7 Texas (-12.5) at TCU
• Michigan State at No. 3 Ohio State (-31.5)
• Florida at No. 18 LSU (-14.5)
• Duke at No. 24 North Carolina (-14)
• USC at No. 6 Oregon (-14.5)

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College football Week 11 expert picks

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College football Week 11 top picks

Joe Milton III Over 18.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

It can be hard to trust quarterbacks to hit their rushing props in college football, with sacks contributing to negative yards. Still, this number is too low for Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton III in a highly anticipated SEC clash against Missouri on Saturday.

Milton knows when to use his legs and when to preserve himself. He's coming off a two-carry, seven-yard performance during a 59-3 win over UConn. But prior to that he registered 25 total rushing attempts in back-to-back road games against Kentucky and Alabama. Milton produced 59 yards against the Crimson Tide and 26 yards against the Wildcats.

For the season, Milton has recorded 265 rushing yards on 59 attempts as the top quarterback of an uptempo Tennessee offense. Projections indicate Milton should finish in the high 20s rushing yardage wise on Saturday, suggesting his alternate line of 25-plus rushing yards (+140 via FanDuel) could be worth a look.

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But what did I say about trusting QB rushing props? Let’s take the safer route with a rushing line of 18.5 yards at FanDuel, which is especially appealing after the rest of our best sports betting apps have set this line at 21.5 as of Friday.

–– Shane Jackson (SBR | Twitter/X)

Brady Cook Over 23.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tennessee boasts one of the best run defenses in the country while allowing just 99.6 yards per game on the ground. For that reason, Mizzou running back Cody Schrader’s rushing line jumping nearly 30 yards from 62.5 last week against Georgia (we loved the Over, and he smashed it) to 91.5 for this game makes the prop a stay-away for us.

Tennessee’s strong run defense was clearly a factor when the books set the rushing line for Missouri quarterback Brady Cook, but it seems there’s been an overcorrection. Recent trends suggest Cook can beat a 23.5-yard rushing line with relative ease. Although his season rushing average (19.2 yards per game) isn’t particularly noteworthy, he’s experienced a noticeable uptick in designed runs and scrambling opportunities.

Cook has compiled 40, 64, and 39 rushing yards against Kentucky, South Carolina, and Georgia, respectively, over his last three games, all while recording at least nine attempts in each contest. That's why this line feels light, even when considering Tennessee's defensive reputation on the ground.

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DraftKings and bet365 both list this prop at 23.5 yards with -115 odds on Over. Caesars also lists the rushing prop for Cook at 23.5 yards, but with -119 odds on Over. We prefer the value at DraftKings or bet365.

–– Brenden Schaeffer (SBR | Twitter/X)

Tyler Van Dyke Under 230.5 passing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tyler Van Dyke has been abysmal for the Hurricanes over the past two weeks. He's thrown for fewer than 175 yards in each game while recording zero touchdowns and five interceptions. Now he faces the country's 26th-ranked pass defense. There's no reason to expect him to break out of his slump, even in a rivalry game against Florida State.

Wagering at the right sportsbook is key to ensuring value on this prop. Both DraftKings and bet365 are listing the total at 230.5. However, the price is significantly better at bet365, as that shop is featuring this prop for -115 instead of -130.

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The most interesting line of all is being offered at FanDuel, which is posting Van Dyke’s total at just 214.5 yards. The price for both the Over and the Under is -114. That number is significantly lower than what DraftKings and bet365 are featuring, and this could be a good spot to try to hit the Over at FanDuel and the Under at bet365.

We’re much more confident in him going Under 230.5 than Over 214.5, but there's potential value for bettors willing to take a chance.

–– Phil Wood (SBR | Twitter/X)

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