SEC Best Bets, Odds for College Football Week 7: Can Aggies' Defense Slow Down Volunteers?
Five of the six AP top-25 teams from the SEC are in play this week, and our SEC best bets based on the college football odds across our best sports betting apps are the perfect complement to Saturday’s SEC action.
Georgia finally delivered its first statement win last week after failing to cover the spread in each of their first five games. The Bulldogs delivered an emphatic 51-13 win over then-No. 20 Kentucky to cement their case as the nation's best team and favorite in the CFP National Championship Odds.
Will Georgia keep it rolling, or will they have a letdown showing against the bottom-dwelling Vanderbilt Commodores?
Meanwhile, Missouri and Kentucky will both look to avoid a two-game losing streak in a prime-time matchup. The Tigers fell 49-39 to LSU, and as noted, the Wildcats were blown out by Georgia last week.
To help round out our college football predictions for Week 7 and our college football best bets, here are our SEC college football best bets for Saturday of Week 7 (odds via our best college football betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
SEC best bets for college football Week 7
- Payton Thorne (Auburn) Under 147.5 passing yards vs. LSU (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Tennessee team total Under 29.5 vs. Texas A&M (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Re’Mahn Davis (Kentucky) Over 104.5 rushing yards vs. Missouri (-114 odds via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Alabama first half spread -10.5 vs. Arkansas (-102 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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SEC schedule and odds Week 7
(Odds via Caesars)
- Georgia (-31.5) vs. Vanderbilt
- Arkansas vs. Alabama (-19)
- Texas A&M vs. Tennessee (-3.5)
- Florida vs. South Carolina (-2)
- Auburn vs. LSU (-11)
- Missouri vs. Kentucky (-2.5)
SEC college football predictions
Payton Thorne (Auburn) Under 147.5 passing yards vs. LSU (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
LSU's defense has been ridiculed throughout the 2023 campaign, with its low point coming during a loss to Ole Miss when it allowed 55 points and 706 total yards. And while the Over has cashed in all six LSU games during 2023 mostly because the team ranks in the bottom 20 of FBS squads in scoring defense (32.3 points per game allowed), we expect the unit to get right at home.
The Tigers have won both of their home games while allowing 20.5 points per contest and a 44% red-zone efficiency. However, they're 2-2 and have given up 38.3 points per game and a red-zone efficiency north of 80% during road outings and neutral-site matchups.
Granted, some of those statistics are tied to the level of competition played, but Auburn averages more rushing yards (202.0) than passing (156.2, the worst in the SEC). Auburn would like nothing more than to take that Baton Rouge crowd out of the game with a ground-and-pound approach. LSU ranks outside the top 110 in rushing success rate allowed, so there shouldn't be a need for a ton of passing from Thorne.
FanDuel is the only shop with odds posted for Thorne right now. But be sure to check back at DraftKings and bet365, which are often reliable shops for competitive college football player prop odds.
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Tennessee team total Under 29.5 vs. Texas A&M (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Tennessee will always be expected to score points if it keeps up the fastest pace of play in the country. However, we project the Aggies' defense to be up to the test a week after facing an improving Alabama offense.
Texas A&M entered Week 6 with 48 tackles for a loss (tied for first in the SEC), 42 disrupted dropbacks (also tied for first), and 20 sacks. We therefore expect some positive regression after the Crimson Tide torched them for 321 yards through the air and 9.7 yards per attempt.
Aggies backers need to be optimistic because the team held an imposing Alabama running game to fewer than one yard per carry. Making Tennessee one-dimensional would bode well for Texas A&M's chances of success. Volunteers quarterback Joe Milton entered Week 6 as the 106th-best quarterback in the country based on PFF's rankings.
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This is a four-star play, as Milton ranks 11th among SEC quarterbacks in passer rating and 10th in completion percentage (63.1%), which isn't ideal when facing a defense that will dare him to throw.
FanDuel is posting comparative value with -111 odds to back the same Under of 29.5 on Tennessee’s team total. But both FanDuel and DraftKings offer a much better number than bet365, which is listing the Volunteers’ team total at 28 as part of a three-way prop, with the Under at +105 odds.
Re’Mahn Davis (Kentucky) Over 104.5 rushing yards vs. Missouri (-114 odds via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Wildcats running back Re’Mahn Davis came into Week 6 with an SEC-best 594 rush yards, 7.8 yards per rush, 329 rushing yards after contact, and eight touchdowns. Additionally, his 23 forced missed tackles ranked second in the conference.
We're not down on Davis ahead of Week 7 despite his 15 carries against Georgia being the tailback's lowest of the last three weeks. The game began with Kentucky digging itself a 21-0 hole early in the second quarter, and the Wildcats were forced to abandon the run. That should not be the case against Missouri in a game with a point spread of 2.5 points, so we expect a significant bounce-back effort from Davis, and he'll be the focal point of the offense.
FanDuel is listing the same total of 104.5 rushing yards as DraftKings and bet365, but with slightly lower juice than the -115 found at the other two shops.
Alabama first half spread -10.5 vs. Arkansas (-102 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Alabama's playoff chances were left for dead after the school's Week 2 loss to Texas. However, the Crimson Tide have since rolled off three consecutive conference triumphs with a 14.3 average margin of victory. They likely know that more style points are needed in the coming weeks to improve their CFP standings.
Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe has completed 72.7% of his pass attempts over the last three games (and was under 80% in only one of those starts) after a 69.2 completion percentage in his first two. Milroe entered Week 6 with an impressive 4:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio when pressured, and he should take advantage of a Razorbacks secondary that ranks outside the top 50 in PFF's coverage grades. Additionally, Arkansas sits beyond the top 100 in passing explosiveness allowed, which is an issue when facing a passing attack that torched a talented Aggies defense on the road for 321 yards and 9.7 yards per pass.
The Crimson Tide have trailed at the half in two of their three home games, so we expect head coach Nick Saban to emphasize starting fast in this contest. All of our best sports betting sites are aligned with a first-half spread of -10.5, but DraftKings is the only one charging less than -105 to lay the points with the favorites.
SEC college football best bets made 10/12/2023 at 6:38 a.m. ET.
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