College Football Picks Against the Spread: Week 7 ATS Predictions

The Week 7 slate is as good as it gets with multiple massive matchups between top 25 teams, and my college football picks against the spread this week target a trio of favorites in overlooked games as part of our college football predictions for Week 7.

This week, my college football picks are backing an Ole Miss team on the rise against an FCS transfer-heavy Washington State, a James Madison squad that looks like it could make a College Football Playoff push, and TCU as it takes on a Kansas State program that can't catch a break.

🏈 College football picks against the spread: Week 7 ATS predictions

College football picks against the spread are based on the latest college football odds and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

💰 My best NCAAF Week 7 ATS picks

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🦈 Ole Miss (-32.5) vs. Washington State ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

With each passing week, this looks like the team Lane Kiffin will finally reach the College Football Playoff with, especially with Trindidad Chambliss emerging as a Heisman Trophy odds contender at QB. The Rebels are coming off a bye week following their upset win over LSU, and this Washington State team doesn't stand a chance.

This is a completely different Washington State team than the one that won eight games last year. After losing head coach Jake Dickert to Wake Forest and QB John Mateer and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle to Oklahoma, the Cougars hired South Dakota State's Jimmy Rogers. Rogers has essentially taped this team together with FCS transfers, and it's shown - Wazzu lost its lone Power Four game this season, the Apple Cup, by 35.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss is No. 7 in SP+ and 4-1 ATS this season behind an offense full of playmakers like Kewan Lacy, Harrison Wallace III, and Dae'Quan Wright. With Washington State's defense ranked outside the top 90 in both EPA per rush and pass, a blowout at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium is coming.

If Ole Miss covers for the fourth straight game, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit at Caesars.

👑 James Madison (-17.5) vs. Louisiana ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The American Conference is getting all the College Football Playoff odds buzz for the Group of Five spot, but James Madison has quietly been among the best G5s in the country yet again. With Alonza Barnett III healthy, Bob Chesney's team is 4-1 ATS this season, including covering on the road against Louisville in Week 2.

The Dukes are the seventh-highest rated G5 team by SP+ (No. 57) with the second-highest rated G5 defense (No. 36) led by linebacker Trent Hendrick and safety Jacob Thomas. Those two should have no problem taking care of business against a Louisiana offense that's No. 94 in SP+ and ranked 134th out of 136 in EPA per pass. (Louisiana QB Walker Howard is out for the season.)

Even better for JMU bettors is the fact that the Dukes want to lean on a ground attack that racks up 241.6 rushing yards per game behind the play of Wayne Knight, and the Ragin' Cajun can't stop a nosebleed (they're No. 125 in EPA per rush on defense).

Louisiana is just 1-3 ATS against FBS teams, and if it fails to cover again, a $10 bet on James Madison pays a $9.09 profit at Caesars.

🐸 TCU (-1.5) vs. Kansas State ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

You'd be hard-pressed to find a more disappointing team than Kansas State (outside of preseason college football national championship odds contenders Texas and Penn State). The Wildcats were expected to challenge for the Big 12 title and earn a CFP spot; instead, they're 2-4 straight up and ATS on the season.

K-State is coming off a heartbreaking 35-34 loss to Baylor on a last-second field goal after blowing a 31-17 lead in the fourth quarter. So morale is going to be low against a feisty TCU team that has the power of Hypnotoad on its side. The Horned Frogs are ranked No. 26 by SP+ thanks to an offense that's No. 23 in EPA per pass.

With QB Josh Hoover, running back Kevorian Barnes, and wide receivers Eric McAlister, Jordan Dwyer, and Joseph Manjack IV, Sonny Dykes' team should expose a Kansas State defense that's ranked outside the top 75 in both EPA per pass and rush. This will likely turn into a shootout, and the Horned Frogs are far more well-equipped to win a high-scoring game.

TCU is 3-1 ATS against Power Four teams this season, and if they win by at least two on a Saturday, a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit at BetMGM.

❓ College football picks against the spread FAQs

What are the best college football ATS picks this week?

The best college football ATS picks this week are Ole Miss -32.5 vs. Washington State, James Madison -17.5 vs. Louisiana, and TCU -1.5 vs. Kansas State.

What does the ATS mean in college football?

ATS in NFL betting stands for “against the spread.” It refers to how often a team covers the point spread in its games. Bettors use ATS records to track performance relative to expectations, not just wins and losses.

What does against the spread mean?

Against the spread (ATS) betting means wagering on whether a team will cover the point spread set by oddsmakers - not just win the game. The favorite must win by more than the spread, while the underdog can win outright or lose by fewer points than the spread.

How do college football odds work?

When betting on college football odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.