College Football Picks Against the Spread: Week 4 ATS Predictions

This week's slate is littered with major matchups, with several rivalry games and a few intraconference heavyweight bouts, as I make my college football picks against the spread for the 20 biggest games as part of our college football predictions for Week 4

My favorite college football picks this week are locked in on a game between teams known more for their basketball programs, the last scheduled Battle for the Iron Skillet, and the Mayor's Cup between a pair of SEC schools that call Columbia home.

🏈 College football picks against the spread: Week 4 ATS predictions

College football picks against the spread are based on the latest college football odds; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

💰 My best NCAAF Week 4 ATS picks

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🐅 Memphis (+7.5) vs. Arkansas ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Arkansas and Memphis don't have an official rivalry, but with the two programs playing in bordering states, there's a little extra fuel in this nonconference fire ... maybe we could call it the John Calipari bowl? The two teams played five times in the 90s, but haven't played since, with the Tigers leading the series 3-2. 

While I don't expect Memphis to win outright this time, it should give Arkansas everything it can handle. The Tigers are shaping up to be the top Group of Five College Football Playoff odds contenders behind an offensive attack that's ranked No. 15 in SP+. Led by QB Brendon Lewis and running back Sutton Smith, Memphis can put plenty of pressure on an Arkansas defense that's outside the top 60 in EPA per rush and pass.

Though Memphis has defensive issues of its own, Ryan Silverfield's squad has the talent to keep up with Arkansas QB Taylen Green and Co., in a high-scoring shootout. With the Tigers having home-field advantage and the better head coach, Memphis can cover and turn a $10 bet into a $9.09 profit at FanDuel.

🐸 TCU (-6.5) vs. SMU ⭐⭐⭐⭐

One of college football's most underrated rivalries, this is expected to be the last Battle for the Iron Skillet for the foreseeable future. It also has the added wrinkle of TCU head coach Sonny Dykes coaching against an SMU program he resurrected before Rhett Lashlee led the Mustangs to the College Football Playoff last year.

But while the Mustangs are coming off a CFP berth, the Horned Frogs look like the much better team this year. SMU already blew a lead to lose at home to Baylor, and found itself down 10-0 last week to Missouri State, a program in its first season at the FBS level. Although the 'Stangs managed to pull out a 28-10 win, it showed the cracks in the team, especially on defense.

With SMU ranked No. 66 in SP+ on defense, Josh Hoover and the Horned Frogs' No. 13-ranked offense are poised to light up Scott Symons' unit in the same way they did to Bill Belichick's North Carolina team. If Hoover and his loaded pass-catching corps can cover, a $10 bet at BetMGM pays an $8.70 profit.

🐯 Missouri (-11.5) vs. South Carolina ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This year's Mayor's Cup, named because both of these schools reside in cities named Columbia, is a lot less interesting than it looked two weeks ago. South Carolina's Heisman Trophy odds-contending QB, LaNorris Sellers, got knocked out of the Gamecocks' loss to Vanderbilt last week, and his status is up in the air. Based on the way the line has moved, it opened at Missouri -3.5; it seems unlikely Sellers will play.

Even if he does take the field, I'm still all over the Tigers, who look like a potential College Football Playoff team thanks to Eli Drinkwitz's transfer additions. QB Beau Pribula (Penn State), running back Ahmad Hardy (UL Monroe), and wide receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. (Mississippi State) have all been among the best at their positions in the country.

Those three, and a dominant O-line led by Cayden Green, have the Tigers ranked No. 17 in SP+, while South Carolina is ranked just No. 71. Missouri also has a top 20 defense led by Josiah Trotter, Damon Wilson II, and Zion Young. The Tigers can eat the Gamecocks and have a $10 bet pay an $8.70 profit at BetMGM.

❓ College football picks against the spread FAQs

What are the best college football ATS picks this week?

The best college football ATS picks this week are Memphis +7.5 vs. Arkansas, TCU -6.5 vs. SMU, and Missouri -13 vs. South Carolina.

What does the ATS mean in college football?

ATS in NFL betting stands for “against the spread.” It refers to how often a team covers the point spread in its games. Bettors use ATS records to track performance relative to expectations, not just wins and losses.

What does against the spread mean?

Against the spread (ATS) betting means wagering on whether a team will cover the point spread set by oddsmakers - not just win the game. The favorite must win by more than the spread, while the underdog can win outright or lose by fewer points than the spread.

How do college football odds work?

When betting on college football odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.  

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