College Football Picks Against the Spread: Week 11 ATS Predictions

Following several chaotic weeks full of upsets, Week 11 seems fairly tame in comparison, but our college football picks against the spread find the 20 biggest games on the slate that you won't want to miss, or miss out on betting on.

This week, my three favorite ATS picks target an overachieving SEC squad against a program that just fired its head coach, an Arizona team that's being slept on, and a Group of Five College Football Playoff contender as part of my college football Week 11 predictions.

🏈 College football picks against the spread: Week 11 ATS predictions

College football picks against the spread are based on the latest college football odds and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

🎯 Today's best college football ATS pick

Akron -10 (vs. UMass)

"The Massachusetts Minutemen are the worst team in the FBS. At 0-8, UMass hasn’t won since last October’s victory over FCS Wagner. The program’s last FBS win came against Army in 2023. In Jeff Sagarin’s rankings, which count both FBS and FCS programs, Massachusetts clocks in at a dreadful 226th, which means the Minutemen are also worse than a majority of FCS programs.

The Minutemen are also 2-6 against the spread this year after going a profitable 6-5-1 last season. I’m backing Akron to cover at home because UMass is historically bad. The Minutemen rank last in yards per play (3.9). Starting quarterback A.J. Hairston ranks dead last among eligible quarterbacks in passing efficiency at 87.4 - more than 20 points worse than the next-worst player. Akron isn’t great, but the Zips don’t need to be to win and cover on Tuesday." - via Isaiah Sirois' UMass vs. Akron prediction.

💰 My best NCAAF Week 11 ATS picks

Don't forget to check out our latest college football best bets and picks.

⚓️ Vanderbilt (-7) vs. Auburn ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

It was pretty nice of Auburn athletic director John Cohen to fire Hugh Freeze before letting Diego Pavia humiliate him for a fourth straight season. The Vanderbilt QB has had some of his biggest moments against Freeze, dating back to three years ago when he led New Mexico State to a 49-14 upset of Freeze's Liberty team. Freeze then left for Auburn shortly after, only to get beaten again by Pavia and the Aggies.

New Mexico State went into Jordan-Hare Stadium to beat Auburn and Freeze 31-10 two years ago. At that point, everyone knew the Freeze era at Auburn would end in a blaze of embarrassment. And then when Pavia transferred into the SEC last season, Freeze must have had nightmares. Pavia led the Commodores to a 17-7 win at Jordan-Hare last season.

Despite Freeze being gone, Pavia is poised for a third straight win over an Auburn team that just doesn't have the offense to keep up. The Tigers are ranked No. 68 on offense by SP+, and Pavia has Vandy No. 12, with help from players like Eli Stowers and Sedrick Alexander. 

Clark Lea's team is 6-2-1 ATS this season, while Auburn is 3-5-1. If the Commodores cover at home against an Auburn team being led by DJ Durkin of all people, a $10 bet at Caesars pays a $9.09 profit.

🌵 Arizona (-4.5) vs. Kansas ⭐⭐⭐⭐

When Jedd Fisch left Arizona for Washington, it seemed like the Wildcats would regress under former San Jose State head coach Brent Brennan, especially after his first season last year. But things are starting to click in the desert, with many in Tucson changing their tune about Brennan. The Wildcats have already won more games this season (5) than last year (4), and QB Noah Fifita has looked his best, even after losing his best pal, Tetairoa McMillan, to the NFL.

Meanwhile, Kansas has really struggled in recent weeks. It no-showed in the Sunflower Showdown against Kansas State, lost by more than 20 to Texas Tech, and didn't even look all that good in wins against Big 12 bottom-feeders Oklahoma State and UCF. The Jayhawks' defense is just No. 103 in EPA per pass and should struggle against Fifita, who's top 30 in QBR (72.8) and has a deep wide receiver room.

And while QB Jalon Daniels has had strong moments for Kansas, Arizona has one of the best pass defenses in the country - No. 2 in EPA per pass and allowing the fewest passing yards per game in the Big 12 (155.3).

The Jayhawks are just 3-6 ATS this season, and the Wildcats are 5-3. If Arizona wins by at least five, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit at Caesars.

👑 James Madison (-12.5) vs. Marshall ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Though the American Conference is getting all the attention for the Group of Five spot in the CFP, James Madison is right there with programs like Memphis, North Texas, and South Florida. And if the Dukes win out and take the Sun Belt crown, JMU could actually get into the CFP with the American teams eating each other alive in the fight for the conference title.

But to get the G5 bid over a two-loss American champ, JMU likely needs to blow its Sun Belt opponents out of the water, much like it did last week when it went into San Marcos and beat a pretty talented Texas State team 52-20. The Dukes have now beaten five of their six G5 opponents by double digits, including handing an Old Dominion team that looked like a Sun Belt contender a 63-27 loss.

Bob Chesney's star QB, Alonza Barnett III, appears to be fully healthy now, too, after tearing his ACL last season. Barnett has 14 total TDs in his last three games and should expose a Marshall defense that's No. 108 in EPA per pass. And while the Thundering Herd have overachieved in a big way this season after losing so much to Southern Miss, Marshall is coming off a 44-27 loss to a mid-tier Coastal Carolina squad and now faces the G5's best defense in JMU.

The Dukes have covered the spread in six of eight games this year, and if they do it for a third straight game, a $10 bet at BetMGM pays a $9.09 profit.