College Football Picks Against the Spread: Week 10 ATS Predictions

This Saturday's slate is loaded, and it features major SEC action, a Big 12 after-dark clash with conference championship implications, what was supposed to be Ohio State's toughest outing of Big Ten play, and a few key Group of Six matchups, with our college football picks against the spread covering the 20 most significant games.

As part of our college football predictions for Week 10, my three favorite college football picks ATS for Saturday include Ole Miss against a heartbroken South Carolina team, Oklahoma to rebound in another ranked matchup, and one of the biggest games of the season in the American Conference.

🏈 College football picks against the spread: Week 10 ATS predictions

College football picks against the spread are based on the latest college football odds and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

🦈 Ole Miss (-12.5) vs. South Carolina ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

South Carolina came oh so close to upsetting Alabama in Week 9, but it would blow a 22-14 fourth-quarter lead to lose 29-22 at home. Shane Beamer's team is in shambles now as it heads to Oxford with a 3-5 record to play an Ole Miss team that just pulled off a decisive road win over Oklahoma to bring its record ATS to 5-3.

The Rebels are clear College Football Playoff odds favorites behind the play of QB Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy, who have put Lane Kiffin's offense ranked No. 10 by SP+. Coming off arguably his most impressive game of the year, Chambliss shouldn't struggle much while picking apart a Gamecocks defense that's No. 63 in EPA per pass.

Despite fielding a freaky talent in QB LaNorris Sellers, who fumbled away the game against Alabama, South Carolina's offense isn't built to keep up with the Rebels (it's ranked outside the top 100 in both EPA per pass and rush). This might be the best offense Kiffin has put together at Ole Miss, which is part of the reason he's the favorite by the Florida next coach odds, and the Rebels should pull away fast.

Ole Miss is 4-1 ATS at home this season, and the Rebels are worth picking as long as this spread stays below -14. If Kiffin's team covers as 13.5-point betting favorites, a $10 wager at Caesars pays a $9.09 profit.

🅾️ Oklahoma (+3.5) vs. Tennessee ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is a top-25 matchup of two teams that haven't been nearly as impressive during the second month of the season as the squads were in the first. However, at least Oklahoma is managing to win a few of its top-25 matchups, while Tennessee has just been running up its numbers against the SEC bottom-feeders (Mississippi State, Arkansas, Kentucky).

The Volunteers' offense is impressive on paper (No. 2 in SP+). But in its only matchup against a top-15 defense by SP+ this year (Alabama at No. 12), Josh Heupel's program managed just 20 points, and Joey Aguilar produced a season-low QBR (60.0). Brent Venables' Oklahoma defense is ranked No. 4 by SP+ and No. 5 in EPA per pass, thanks to a terrifying pass rush that R Mason Thomas leads. 

With the Vols' defense allowing the second-most yards (401.5) and the points per game in the SEC (30.9), John Mateer and Co. should be able to do enough to support the Sooners' defense and keep this close. If OU covers, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit at DraftKings. Tennessee is just 1-4-1 ATS since Sept. 13.

🟢 North Texas (-5.5) vs. Navy ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The American Conference is home to some of the nation's best football this season, and James Madison looks like the only G6 team capable of stealing the College Football Playoff spot from the American champ. And with South Florida falling to Memphis last week on a missed field goal, that sets this matchup between an air raid offense and a triple-option academy up to be a potentially meaningful game for the CFP.

While Navy sits atop the American Conference with a 7-0 record and it's 5-0 in conference play, the Midshipmen have avoided all relevant American programs thus far. Navy needed a TD and 2-point conversion with 39 seconds left to win its only game against a team above .500 (Temple). The Midshipmen are just 1-5 ATS against FBS programs this season.

Meanwhile, North Texas has been enjoying one of the best turnarounds in the country under head coach Eric Morris. He's starting a redshirt freshman QB who didn't even start during high school in Drew Mestemaker. The signal-caller is coming off a 608-yard passing performance, and he's a major reason why the Mean Green are ranked No. 5 by SP+ on offense and poised to expose a Navy team sitting No. 126 in EPA per pass on defense.

North Texas is 6-2 ATS this season, and a $10 bet at bet365 pays a $9.09 profit if the Mean Green cover during a third straight game.