College Football National Championship Odds: Big Ten Chasing 3rd Straight Title, SEC Shows Cracks
In the College Football Playoff era, a program from the Big Ten or SEC has won it all in nine of 12 seasons, which is why it's no surprise to see those two conferences account for the seven biggest favorites by the latest college football national championship odds.
While many consider the SEC to be the top college football conference, the Big Ten that has taken home the last two titles - and the start of this season suggests the Big Ten could make it a three-peat this year.
Through three weeks of the season, the Big Ten has dominated with the biggest college football national championship odds favorites being Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon. So, should you avoid the SEC altogether with your college football picks for this year's CFP?
π College football national championship odds 2025-26
The latest college football national championship odds; see all of the latest college football odds in real time.
π Week 3 odds movement & key takeaways
- The top of the college football national championship odds didn't see much movement after Week 3, with Ohio State (+575 to +600), Penn State (+650 to +700), Georgia (+650 to +800), and Texas (remained +800) seeing little to no movement
- Oregon was one of the biggest risers up the board, with the Ducks seeing their odds shorten from +1100 to +800 following Week 3
- LSU (+1000 to +1200) and Tennessee (+2000 to +4000) moved in the wrong direction, while Oklahoma (+3500 to +2500) and Texas A&M (+3500 to +2500) jumped up
- The contenders that have seen the biggest slides from their opening odds to now are Notre Dame (+1600 to +4000), Clemson (+2000 to +10000), South Carolina (+4000 to +50000), and Florida (+6000 to +17500)
π Big Tenβs push for a third straight national title
π° Ohio State (+600)
The defending champions have the best win on their resume of any team, taking down No. 1 Texas in Week 1, and sit atop the AP Top 25 with an overwhelming 55 of 66 first-place votes. Even after an iffy Week 3 win over Ohio, the Buckeyes are No. 3 in SP+ and one of just four teams to rank top 10 on offense and defense.
It helps Ohio State's case that Ryan Day has proven to be one of the best QB developers in the country, so Julian Sayin's up-and-down play in the win over the Bobcats should be taken with a grain of salt as the redshirt freshman settles in. And it doesn't hurt that he's throwing to the best wide receiver duo in the country, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate.
The Buckeyes also haven't dropped off defensively much at all since Matt Patricia took over, even with several key players now in the NFL. This unit ranks No. 2 in SP+ and has three of the best defensive players in the country in Caleb Downs, Sonny Styles, and Arvell Reese.
While Ohio State's College Football Playoff odds imply an 88.89% probability it'll make the CFP, I'm not convinced the Buckeyes will repeat as champs. That's why I don't love backing them with a $10 winning bet only paying a $70 profit, but I still like looking elsewhere in the Big Ten rather than backing an SEC program.
π¦ Penn State (+700)
Coming into the season, Penn State was my pick to win it all - and that hasn't change through the first three weeks. While the Nittany Lions have yet to play a Power Four team, they have similar makeup to the last two national title winners in Ohio State and Michigan.
James Franklin's team is littered with upperclassmen on both sides of the ball, has one of the best coordinator combos in the country (Andy Kotelnicki and Jim Knowles), and utilized the transfer portal to bolster an already loaded roster. While Penn State has yet to be tested, it's handled business with ease, outscoring its opponents 132-17 through three games.
The Nittany Lions are ranked No. 1 in SP+ as the only team to rank in the top five on offense and defense. With a veteran behind center in Drew Allar, a two-headed monster at running back (Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen), a reloaded wide receiver room, dominant trench play on both sides of the ball, and a talented secondary led by Zakee Wheatley, this is Franklin's best shot at bringing the title to Happy Valley.
With a bye in Week 4, Penn State will finally be tested in Week 5 against Oregon. The Nittany Lions are at home for that one in what will be a "White Out" game. So if you're not convinced Penn State is actually going to do it this year and are OK with these odds potentially getting shorter (right now they pay a $70 profit on a $10 winning bet), don't be afraid to wait and see.
π¦ Oregon (+700)
The more I watch this Oregon team, the more I think the winner of Oregon vs. Penn State in Week 5 on Saturday, Sept. 27, will end up winning the whole dang thing. Dan Lanning has these Ducks playing as well as any team, and with Dante Moore playing like a Heisman Trophy odds favorite, the Ducks may finally put Phil Knight's money to good use.
Lanning is up there with Kirby Smart and Ryan Day as one of the best coaches in the sport, and Moore has looked like an upgrade over Dillon Gabriel thus far. And if he is actually better than one of last year's Heisman finalists, then the Ducks could repeat as Big Ten champs and earn the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff again.
Despite dropping two spots in the latest top 25 to No. 6, Oregon is sandwiched between No. 1 Penn State and No. 3 Ohio State in the latest SP+ rankings. While Lanning's defense once again looks championship-ready with players like Matayo Uiagalelei, A'Mauri Washington, Bryce Boettcher, and Dillon Thieneman, it's the offense that could push the Ducks to the next level.
Moore has been one of the most efficient passers in the country - he's 10th in QBR (85.7) - and offensive coordinator Will Stein has a proven track record with transfer QBs like Bo Nix and Gabriel. Thanks to the emergence of playmakers like Dakorien Moore, Kenyon Sadiq, and Malik Benson, the Ducks look like a team worth betting to take home the title, especially if they can upset Penn State in two weeks.
πͺ¨ SEC contenders showing cracks early
πΎ Georgia and LSU look susceptible in wins
There's two ways to look at Georgia and LSU's Week 3 wins. On one hand, the Bulldogs managed an epic comeback to beat Tennessee in overtime behind the best game of Gunner Stockton's career; on the other hand, they gave up 41 points and needed the Volunteers to miss a game-winning kick.
As for LSU, the Tigers only won by 10 at home against a Florida team that lost to South Florida last week. LSU should probably be putting up more than 20 points with its Heisman-contending QB (Garrett Nussmeier) when the opposing QB (DJ Lagway) throws five interceptions. At the same time, Blake Baker has seemingly fixed LSU's defense with Harold Perkins Jr. once again playing like a game-wrecker.
There's good and bad with both of these teams, but neither ranks top five in SP+ for a reason. Georgia's defense doesn't look like one of Kirby Smart's elite units capable of winning a title (it ranks No. 17 in SP+), and LSU's offense has consistently been inconsistent (No. 25 in SP+).
Though I'd avoid betting either of these teams right now, I'd jump at Georgia at +800 and LSU at +1200 way before I could stomach betting Texas at +800.
π Can Texas survive Arch Manning's poor play?
Nobody seems to know what's going on with Arch Manning. He came into the season being talked about as if he were all the best parts of Peyton, Eli, and Archie Manning, but he's looked more like Ryan Leaf through three weeks.
In Week 1, Ohio State had him completely lost, which is fair ... it was his first-ever road start and came against the reigning national champs. But putting up a 26.5 QBR at home against a UTEP defense that ranks No. 102 in SP+? That just won't do for a team with championship aspirations. Manning's been so bad that coaches have had to address questions about whether he's or if the staff changed his throwing motion; he's been throwing sidearm all season.
The sad part for Longhorns fans is that this team has one of the best defenses in the country - it ranks first in SP+ and features future NFL stars like Anthony Hill Jr. and Colin Simmons - but it won't be able to make up for the offense (No. 49 in SP+) when the Longhorns start playing real contenders unless Manning figures out how to play QB like his uncles.
π Are Alabama, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, or Ole Miss for real?
The SEC remains loaded with teams that will be fighting for spots in the College Football Playoff, but are any of them actually capable of winning the national title? This week, Alabama hammered Wisconsin, Texas A&M had a wild comeback win against Notre Dame, Oklahoma blew out Temple after its huge win against Oklahoma last week, and Ole Miss beat Arkansas with its backup QB.
The Crimson Tide are the program ranked the highest by SP+, though we all know what happened in Week 1 against Florida State ... there's Alabama next coach odds available for a reason. And while the Aggies' win led by Marcel Reed and his dynamic wide receivers was impressive for Mike Elko, are we sure Notre Dame is that good? The Fighting Irish are ranked No. 22 in SP+, and Texas A&M is just slightly better at No. 20.
The Rebels and Sooners have both had strong moments early, but it's too early to tell if either will be capable of making the CFP this year after missing it last year. I'd feel more confident backing the Sooners between the two, with John Mateer putting together a strong Heisman resume early and Brent Venables having the better defense. But I'd rather wait for more data points on both.
As crazy as this sounds, if I had to bet on an SEC team to win it all right now, I'd back Nick Saban's old team. Everyone in Tuscaloosa might hate Kalen DeBoer, but this is the most talented team in the SEC on paper ... plus I like the value at +1400, with a $10 winning bet paying a $140 profit.
β College football national championship FAQs
Who is the college football national championship odds favorite?
Ohio State (+600) is the college football national championship odds favorite. The Buckeyes' odds imply a 14.29% probability that they'll win the title for the second straight season.
When will the college football national championship be decided?
The 2026 college football national championship will be decided on Monday, Jan. 19.
When does the College Football Playoff start?
The 2025-2026 College Football Playoff begins Friday, Dec. 19, with the first of four first-round games; the other three will be played Saturday, Dec. 20. The quarterfinal games will then be played on Wednesday, Dec. 31, and Thursday, Jan. 1.
The semifinal games will be Thursday, Jan. 8, and Friday, Jan. 9, with the championship game slated for Monday, Jan. 19, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
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