College Football National Championship Odds: Can a Non-Blue Blood Win It All?

Through the first four weeks of the college football season, there's been only slight movement at the top of the college football national championship odds - especially without any marquee matchups in Week 4.

However, we did see massive wins from two teams that have invested more in building their programs to compete with the blue bloods of college football. Both Indiana and Texas Tech managed top-25 wins over conference opponents that entered the season as College Football Playoff contenders.

Could a non-blue blood like Indiana or Texas Tech be worth betting at long odds to win it all with your college football picks this year?

🔀 Week 4 national championship odds movement & key takeaways

• The top college football national championship odds contenders - Ohio State (+600 to +575), Penn State (stayed at +700), Oregon (+800 to +700), Georgia (+800 to +750), and Texas (+800 to +850) - all saw minimal movement
• After beating Auburn, Oklahoma saw its odds shorten from +2500 to +1900 behind the play of Heisman Trophy odds favorite John Mateer
• One of the biggest risers this season since opening at +15000 has been Indiana, which now has odds no longer than +6500 following its 63-10 blowout win against Illinois
• Like Indiana, Texas Tech has been a massive mover up the oddsboard; the Red Raiders have cut their odds to +7500 after opening the season at +50000

📊 Live college football national championship odds 2025-26

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🌟 Non-blue bloods making noise in the title race

🔴 Indiana (+6500)

In his first season in Bloomington, head coach Curt Cignetti managed to turn Indiana into a football school. The Hoosiers spent much of last season as one of the biggest College Football Playoff odds contenders before earning the No. 10 seed in the CFP. Many expected the Hoosiers to take a step back - and even for Illinois to be this year's version of IU ahead of Saturday's Big Ten clash.

It appeared that Coach Cig's program took that talk personally. Even with Indiana being a 4-point betting favorite at home, nobody could have predicted a 53-point win for the Hoosiers over the No. 9 Illini. It was the type of win that left folks around the country asking if Indiana could actually compete for the Big Ten title ... and even the national title.

The key to it all for Indiana is QB Fernando Mendoza, who was the biggest Heisman Trophy odds riser coming out of Week 4. Mendoza, a California transfer, has somehow looked like an upgrade over last year's star, Kurtis Rourke. He leads the country in touchdown passes (14) and has the highest adjusted completion rate (83.2%) among Power Four QBs with 100-plus dropbacks.

Thanks to Mendoza and playmakers like Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr., Indiana is ranked No. 10 in SP+ on offense. But this isn't a one-sided team; the Hoosiers' defense was vicious against Illinois with players like D'Angelo Ponds, Aiden Fisher, and Mikail Kamara all on the NFL radar.

This is a complete team - one of just five programs to rank top 12 in SP+ on offense and defense - and somehow it looks even better than last year's CFP team. With a 2026 NFL Draft odds contender at QB in Mendoza, I think betting the Hoosiers at +500 via Caesars to make the CFP again is worthwhile, with a $10 bet paying a $50 profit.

With that said, winning it all is a huge ask for a program that we've yet to see play a blue blood. I'd hold off on considering backing the Hoosiers to win the CFP, even with a $10 bet paying a $650 profit on these current odds, until we see how they look on the road against Oregon on Nov. 11.

🏴‍☠️ Texas Tech (+7500)

When Ohio State poured millions into crafting its national championship-winning roster last season, nobody was surprised. In the NIL era, blue bloods with those kinds of resources are supposed to bolster their blue-chip recruiting class with high-priced transfers.

But when Texas Tech became the story of the offseason for spending billionaire alum Cody Campbell's money, the pressure was on for head coach Joey McGuire and GM James Blanchard to prove they were the right men for the job.

Armed with the No. 2 transfer portal class, the Red Raiders hit the ground running with three straight blowouts against non-Power Four teams to start the year. And at noon on Saturday, as a 3.5-point road underdog, Texas Tech finally got its chance to show that this team has the goods to make the CFP.

McGuire's team walked into Rice-Eccles Stadium and completely shut down Devon Dampier and the Utah offense while surviving an injury to star QB Behren Morton. The Utes have two potential first-round picks at offensive tackle, but they stood no chance against Texas Tech's front seven, led by top transfers David Bailey (Stanford), Romello Height (Georgia Tech), and Lee Hunter (UCF). Those three - plus players like Jacob Rodriguez, Brice Pollock, and A.J. Holmes Jr. - give the Red Raiders a defense with the talent to win the Big 12 and earn a CFP bye.

And the offense, even if Morton misses time, looks like the best in the conference - it helps that freshman backup Will Hammond looks like the real deal. Tech is ranked No. 2 in SP+ on offense thanks to its plethora of playmakers like Terrance Carter Jr., Coy Eakin, Reggie Virgil, Cameron Dickey, and J'Koby Williams.

Talent is the most important thing in this sport, and that's why I've been banging the table to bet Texas Tech to make the CFP since the Red Raiders were +450 weeks ago; they're now +260 at Caesars. But even with a $10 winning bet on the Red Raiders paying a $750 profit, I can't trust a Big 12 team to win the championship over teams like Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon.

The Big 12 hasn't won a title since Vince Young led Texas past USC in 2005, and a current Big 12 team hasn't won a national championship since Colorado did in 1990.

🔥 Other non-blue bloods off to hot starts

🌞 SEC

• Missouri (+10000): The Tigers are ranked No. 13 in SP+, thanks to Beau Pribula and Ahmad Hardy on offense and a defense with a loaded front seven led by Zion Young and Damon Wilson II.
• Vanderbilt (+50000): Diego Pavia has completely changed this Commodores program, which ranks in the top 20 in SP+ and could give programs like Alabama, LSU, and Texas a scare in the coming weeks.

🌾 Big Ten

• Washington (+25000): The Huskies have quietly been one of the most fun teams in the country thanks to their three-headed monster of Damond Williams Jr., Jonah Coleman, and Denzel Boston on offense. They'll have their first real test with Ohio State in Week 5.
• Maryland (+100000): The Terrapins could put some Big Ten teams on upset alert thanks to their breakout freshman QB, Malik Washington, and a defense that isn't getting enough attention.

🏜️ Big 12

• TCU (+15000): Led by QB Josh Hoover and a loaded group of playmakers, TCU could be the biggest threat to Texas Tech's Big 12 title chase after the Horned Frogs beat SMU in the Battle for the Iron Skillets.
• Iowa State (+20000): Ranked in the top 15 of the latest top 25, the Cyclones have a lot of experience and could realistically be 9-0 by the time they play TCU on Nov. 8.

🌊 ACC

• Georgia Tech (+10000): If I'm a Miami fan, I'm worried that Brent Key's Yellow Jackets are going to make a run to the ACC Championship behind the play of Haynes King. Georgia Tech's CFP odds are just +200 at Caesars.
• Louisville (+12500): The Cardinals have a lot of athleticism, especially on offense, and are the second-highest ranked ACC team by SP+ (No. 26) behind only the Hurricanes.

🌍 Group of Five

• Memphis (+100000): The Tigers look like the best team in the G5 this year, and they're the highest ranked by SP+ (No. 34) after taking down Arkansas. Behind stars Sutton Smith and Brendon Lewis, Memphis' CFP odds are still just +750.
• North Texas (+100000): No G5 program has come out of nowhere like the Mean Green this season, who have found a hidden gem in QB Drew Mestemaker. Head coach Eric Morris could lead this team to its first winning record since taking over North Texas.

❓ College football national championship FAQs

Who is the college football national championship odds favorite?

Ohio State (+575) is the college football national championship odds favorite. The Buckeyes' odds imply a 14.81% probability that they'll win the title for the second straight season.

When will the college football national championship be decided?

The 2026 college football national championship will be decided on Monday, Jan. 19.

When does the College Football Playoff start?

The 2025-2026 College Football Playoff begins Friday, Dec. 19, with the first of four first-round games; the other three will be played Saturday, Dec. 20. The quarterfinal games will then be played on Wednesday, Dec. 31, and Thursday, Jan. 1.

The semifinal games will be Thursday, Jan. 8, and Friday, Jan. 9, with the championship game slated for Monday, Jan. 19, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

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