College Football Best Bets Today: Can Mendoza Continue Hot Streak?

With so many marquee matchups this week, my college football best bets today for Week 5 focus on six games flying under the radar to highlight some of the best value for your college football picks today.

While our college football predictions for Week 5 have the biggest games covered - including Alabama vs. Georgia and Oregon vs. Penn State - there are over 40 games taking place through the day, which means there's plenty of value to be found outside all the top-25 matchups.

🏈 College football best bets & expert picks today: Week 5

College football best bets for Week 5; odds subject to change.

🔮 Best college football predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🐦 Kansas -4.5 vs. Cincinnati ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

• Kansas is ranked No. 37 by SP+ while Cincinnati is No. 45
• Thanks to star QB Jalon Daniels, Kansas is No. 22 in EPA per pass on offense, and the Bearcats are just No. 102 in EPA per pass on defense
• Kansas is 2-0 ATS at home against FBS opponents this season - this is Cincinnati's first true road game of the season
• The Jayhawks beat the Bearcats 49-16 the last time they played (2023)
• Kansas has a 52.38% implied probability of covering the 4.5-point spread
• If the Jayhawks win by 5-plus points, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit

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🟢 North Texas -12.5 vs. South Alabama ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

• North Texas is one of the Group of Five College Football Playoff odds favorites and among the highest ranking G5 teams by SP+ (No. 67), with South Alabama ranking 15 spots lower (No. 82)
• The Mean Green have gotten off to a hot start at 4-0, including 3-1 ATS (2-0 at home) behind a top 10 scoring offense (47.0 PPG) led by breakout QB Drew Mestemaker
• South Alabama is coming off a 38-20 loss at home to Coastal Carolina in which it was favored by 16 points over the Chanticleers, bringing the Jaguars season record to 1-3
• Last season, the Mean Green opened the season with a 52-38 road win over South Alabama - the Jaguars were a 6-point betting favorite
• North Texas has a 52.38% implied probability of covering the 12.5-point spread
• If the Mean Green win by 13-plus points, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit

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⬇️ Tulane vs. Tulsa Under 52.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

• Tulsa just upset Oklahoma State, leading to Mike Gundy being fired, after holding the Cowboys to just 12 points in the win - the Golden Hurricane allow just 20.5 PPG this season
• Both teams offenses are ranked outside the top 70 in both EPA per pass and EPA per rush and are averaging a combined 47.8 points per game
• Tulsa is 3-1 betting the Under so far this season, with the Golden Hurricanes' average game total finishing at 43.2
• The last time these two teams played (2023), they combined for 44 points in a 24-22 win for Tulane
• There's a 52.38% implied probability of the 52.5-point game total hitting the Under
• If Tulane and Tulsa combined for Under 52.5 points, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit

💰 Best college football player prop bets for Week 5

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Chris Bell, WR, Louisville: Over 68.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

• Chris Bell is one of the top wide receiver prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft and has gone Over 68.5 receiving yards in four of his last seven games, including putting up 101 yards against Pittsburgh last season
• The Panthers' defense is ranked outside the top 40 in EPA per pass and is allowing the sixth-highest passer rating in the ACC (134.9)
• Bell is top 25 in the ACC in targets (22), receiving yards (197), yards per route run (2.66), first down receptions (9), and YAC (85) despite having only played three games
• There's a 53.49% implied probability of Bell finishing with Over 68.5 receiving yards against Pitt
• If Bell goes Over 68.5 receiving yards, a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit

⬆️ Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana: Over 250.5 passing yard ⭐⭐⭐⭐

• Fernando Mendoza is the Heisman Trophy odds favorite after throwing for 267 yards and five touchdowns against a top-10-ranked Illinois team last week
• Mendoza has gone Over 250.5 passing yards in two straight games and ranks No. 1 in the country in TD passes (14), No. 2 in adjusted completion rate (83.2%), and No. 11 in QBR (84.4)
• Thanks to Mendoza, and star receivers Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr., the Hoosiers are No. 3 in the country in EPA per pass
• Iowa's defense hasn't been as strong as usual, ranking outside the top 40 in EPA per pass after allowing Rutgers QB Athan Kaliakmanis to throw for a career-high 330 yards last week
• There's a 50% implied probability of Mendoza throwing for Over 250.5 yards against Iowa
• If Mendoza goes Over 250.5 passing yards, a $10 bet pays a $10 profit

🔥 Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri: Score 3+ touchdowns ⭐⭐⭐⭐

• Arguably the best running back in the country this season, Ahmad Hardy ranks second in the country in rushing yards (600) and fifth in rushing touchdowns (6)
• Against Missouri's lone Group of Five opponent this season, Louisiana, Hardy ran for 250 yards and three touchdowns
• Hardy, a UL Monroe transfer, is No. 1 in the Power Four in rushing yards after contact (458), missed tackles forced (36), and 10-plus-yard runs (17)
• UMass is one of the worst teams in the country at 0-3 and gave up 47 points and 201 rushing yards in its lone game against a P4 team this season (Iowa)
• There's a 31.25% implied probability of Hardy scoring 3-plus touchdowns against UMass
• If Hardy scores three touchdowns in a game for the second time this season, a $10 bet pays a $22 profit

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