College Football Best Bets for Week 11: Expert ATS Predictions & Player Props This Week

My college football best bets for Week 11 look to keep the momentum going after going a profitable 13-7 (65%) over the last four weeks.

Included in my college football Week 11 predictions are underdogs facing College Football Playoff contenders and player props involving two of the country’s best running backs.

🏈 College football best bets & expert picks: Week 11

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11 based on the latest college football odds.

🔮 My best college football predictions this week

🐶 Mississippi State +9.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Georgia earned its 46th consecutive win over unranked opponents last week, extending the longest active streak in FBS. But it was also its third comeback victory after trailing in the fourth quarter, its most since 2016.

This is an extreme “trap spot” for Georgia, with this road game sandwiched in between games against its most fierce rival (Florida) and a ranked Texas squad. 

Mississippi State can play more freely after snapping its 16-game conference losing streak. Even though it came against an Arkansas team that is amid its longest losing streak in a season (seven games) since 2019, the fact that the Bulldogs won on the road should make the cowbells at Davis Wade Stadium this week ring even louder.

DraftKings not only has the best number compared to the +8.5 found at other best sports betting sites, but it is also the only one charging less than the standard -110 juice. Through its -108 odds at +9.5, a $10 winning wager would net $9.26 in profits.

⬇️ Delaware team total Under 24.5 (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Outside of a 31-7 nonconference loss to Colorado, Delaware has scored 25-plus points in six of its other seven games. But it should face one of its stiffest tests this week against Louisiana Tech, which ranks fourth in FBS in Defensive Havoc.

The Bulldogs have lived in opposing backfields thanks to being able to mask pressure out of their unique 3-3-5 defense. And Delaware’s defense has a bottom-15 pass rush that also ranks that low in quality drives and finishing drives allowed. Thus, I expect Louisiana Tech to dominate time of possession and keep the Blue Hens' offense off the field.

If Delaware scores 24 or fewer points, my five-star play backed by a $10 wager through FanDuel’s best -114 odds at a 53.27% implied probability would return $8.77 in profits.

🎩 Wake Forest +6.5 (-104) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If the College Football Playoff started this weekend, Virginia would play as the No. 11 seed as the projected ACC Champion. But the Cavaliers are bound to be snake-bitten after winning an FBS-high three overtime games. They are also the first ACC team since Pittsburgh in 2019 to win four straight games each by one score.

Wake Forest is a live underdog that snapped SMU’s 20-game regular-season conference winning streak, while dealing the Mustangs their first regular-season loss since joining the ACC. The Demon Deacons also held SMU to 246 total yards, its fewest in a game under head coach Rhett Lashlee. 

With FanDuel only charging a -104 price at 50.98% implied odds to back the underdogs, I would not put anyone off paying up for the alternate spread of +7.5 at -132. But I prefer the standard wager at +6.5, which would net $9.62 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

💰 My best college football player props this week

⬆️ Ahmad Hardy player prop: Over 89.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy is the fourth-leading rusher among FBS running backs and has carried 20-plus times in six games. 

While he has gone Over this projected total in just half of the team’s four conference games, he should be given plenty of opportunities in a ball-control game plan that looks to keep Texas A&M’s 11th-ranked scoring offense off the field.

The Aggies' defense entered their last game ranked 134th in rush explosives allowed, and that should help Hardy snap a four-game streak without at least one 20-yard run.

FanDuel’s -114 odds carry a 53.27% implied probability and would net $8.77 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

🔥 Kaytron Allen player prop: Anytime touchdown scorer (+110) ⭐⭐⭐

Each week, it seems like a crapshoot to determine which of the Penn State running backs, Kaytron Allen or Nicholas Singleton, is going to get the brunt of the team’s goal-line work. Oddsmakers seem to think Allen has the better matchup against a vaunted Indiana defense, as his shortest anytime touchdown odds (+110) are much better than Singleton’s +260 odds, carrying a 27.78% implied probability.

Indiana’s FBS-best pressure percentage means Penn State will likely want to keep the ball on the ground more. Thus, Allen will likely see more snaps than Singleton, who has emerged as the better pass-catcher of the two. 

Allen has scored in every game this season, including three total touchdowns in the last two games played without starting quarterback Drew Allar. That alone makes any plus-money odds for Allen to score a touchdown a steal, and bet365 is the only best sports betting app offering a better return than -110 odds for Allen to score. 

If Allen does score, my $10 winning wager through bet365’s +110 odds would return $11 in profits.

Meanwhile our Philip Wood likes the Under on Allen's rushing yardage total in his Indiana vs. Penn State prediction.