College Football Best Bets for CFP Semifinals | Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props

My college football best bets for the College Football Playoff semifinals take a look at the two matchups, one of which is a rematch from the regular season.

As part of our College Football Playoff predictions, I am calling for a third straight slugfest in a game involving Miami, and I make a contrarian play in the Oregon-Indiana matchup.

🏈 College football best bets for CFP semifinals

See all of our experts' college football picks for the CFP semifinals based on the latest college football odds.

🔮 Best college football predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Miami-Ole Miss Under 52.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Under backers are getting great value with this line at DraftKings, as most other of the other best sports betting sites are a full point lower at 51.5.

Miami has followed a successful formula in its run to the semifinals that includes grinding out long possessions on offense and minimizing possessions while limiting big plays and playing stout defense.

The Hurricanes finished in the top eight nationally in both Defensive SP+ and EPA allowed per play, and likely want no part of getting into a shootout with Ole Miss.

While the Rebels are averaging 37.6 points and 496 yards per game and are converting 44% of third downs, they have also seen the Under cash in half their games. Our Rob Paul targets the Fiesta Bowl spread instead for his Miami vs. Ole Miss predictions.

Oregon +3.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

Oregon lowered from +4 to +3.5 despite 83% of the bets and 85% of the handle coming in on Indiana at BetMGM as of Monday afternoon. I love the contrarian nature of this play, with the public gushing over Indiana’s performance in the Rose Bowl.

While Indiana completely dismantled Alabama 38-3 in the quarterfinals, the truth is that the Crimson Tide had been trending downward for a month. Few are seemingly giving Oregon as much credit for a dominating 23-0 win over Texas Tech, as the Red Raiders had allowed 23 combined points in its four games prior. Texas Tech also entered with the best explosive play differential in the country (plus-81). 

Oregon has covered three of its four games as underdogs since the start of last season, and I am backing the Ducks in that role once again

💰 Best college football player props for CFP semifinals

Trinidad Chambliss Over 256.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Miami’s defense ranks ninth against explosive passes and is 12th in yards per dropback allowed. But I still expect the Ole Miss coaching staff to try to move the ball early and often through the air, as the Hurricanes rank in the top nine in rushing success rate allowed and third in yards before contact average.

Trinidad Chambliss has only thrown for fewer than 250 yards once this season, in a game against South Carolina, where Ole Miss dominated the trenches with 258 rushing yards. And from a value perspective, this is an automatic play at bet365, as Chambliss’ O/U for passing yards is as high as 264.5 at the opposite end of the market. Our Philip Wood features three more player props for the Fiesta Bowl in his Miami vs. Ole Miss player props.

Fernando Mendoza longest pass completion Under 44.5 yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While all the talk surrounding Oregon’s game against Texas Tech centered on its superior offense against the Red Raiders’ elite defense, that masked the fact that Oregon still ranked eighth, allowing just 271.4 yards per game. And its stingy defense against explosive plays was a big reason the Ducks ranked second in explosive-play differential (plus-78).

Fernando Mendoza has been aggressive all year long, averaging 13.2 yards per completion. But Oregon ranks second in defensive marginal explosiveness, and fifth in percentage of snaps gaining 20-plus yards. 

In addition, the Ducks secondary ranks sixth in yards per dropback allowed, and they held Mendoza to a long completion of 29 yards in the first meeting.