College Football Week 6 Picks Against the Spread for Marquee Games
While the slate may not be the most exciting, we still found plenty of value to be had with our college football Week 6 picks against the spread.
- A contender by the college football championship odds, Penn State takes on a lowly UCLA program
- Louisville looks to keep its College Football Playoff odds alive against an SMU team that's been quietly surging in recent weeks
- A double-digit favorite across our best college football betting sites, Iowa State is set for another blowout win in Big 12 play
Although the schedule lacks top-notch games, our Week 6 college football predictions identify a handful of the best matchups to watch and bet on this week.
College football ATS picks Week 6: Marquee games
College football picks via DraftKings and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Texas State vs. Troy | Texas State (-13) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Houston vs. TCU | TCU (-16.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Michigan State vs. Oregon | Oregon (-24) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Syracuse vs. UNLV | Syracuse (+6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| UCLA vs. Penn State | Penn State (-28) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Missouri vs. Texas A&M | Missouri (+2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| SMU vs. Louisville | SMU (+7) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina | North Carolina (+3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Navy vs. Air Force | Navy (-10) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Iowa vs. Ohio State | Iowa (+19.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Auburn vs. Georgia | Georgia (-24) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ole Miss vs. South Carolina | Ole Miss (-9.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Indiana vs. Northwestern | Indiana (-13.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Rutgers vs. Nebraska | Rutgers (+7) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Clemson vs. Florida State | Clemson (-14.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Tennessee vs. Arkansas | Tennessee (-13.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Michigan vs. Washington | Michigan (+2) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Baylor vs. Iowa State | Iowa State (-11.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Miami vs. California | California (+10.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texas Tech vs. Arizona | Arizona (-6.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
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My favorite ATS picks this week
College football picks as of Wednesday. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
UCLA vs. Penn State (-28)
Best odds: -108 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.92%
Coming off a difficult win over an AP Top 25-ranked Illinois team, Penn State is in for some smooth sailing against UCLA.
The Bruins have one of the worst offenses in the country - sitting 102nd in EPA per rush and 108th in EPA per dropback - and the Nittany Lions have a dominating defense led by Abdul Carter.
Against a defense that's third in SP+, there's a chance UCLA won't crack 10 points. That means Drew Allar and Nicholas Singleton need to hang about 40 on a defense that's 66th in SP+.
If they can put up the points and cover, a $10 bet pays a $9.26 profit.
SMU (+7) vs. Louisville
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
Coming off a 31-24 loss to Notre Dame where it shot itself in the foot far too many times, Louisville could be in for another tough one against SMU.
Since officially naming Kevin Jennings the starting QB, the Mustangs have looked like a legit contender in the ACC. They've outscored opponents 108-58 in the two games since Jennings was named the starter over Preston Stone and now rank 26th in SP+ on offense.
But it's the defense that I think will make the biggest difference in this matchup. The Mustangs are fifth in EPA per rush and 45th in EPA per drop back, and should cause enough problems for Tyler Shough and Co. to lose by less than a touchdown.
If Rhett Lashlee's team can keep it close, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
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Baylor vs. Iowa State (-11.5)
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
With the parity in the Big 12, Iowa State could make a push to win the conference. That's how well Matt Campbell's team has played this season.
Meanwhile in Waco, Dave Aranda's job is on the line with Baylor looking like one of the worst teams in the conference. The Bears are 0-3 in Big 12 play, and with an offense that's 62nd in SP+, they may not score much against the Cyclones.
Iowa State is ninth in SP+ on defense and has yet to give up more than 19 points in a game. With Rocco Becht, Abu Sama, Jayden Higgins, and Jaylin Noel making up one of the better quartets in the country, the Cyclones won't have a hard time scoring against this struggling defense either.
A win by 12 or more by Iowa State would pay a $9.09 profit on a $10 bet.
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College football betting odds pages
Here are our best college football betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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