Navy vs. Notre Dame Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 11 Betting Preview

As the college football playoff race comes into focus, let’s tackle our Navy vs. Notre Dame prediction with both sides in the hunt. Navy, coming off a brutal loss that it’ll probably have to win this game to overcome, visits No. 10 Notre Dame in Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 8 at 7:30 p.m. (NBC/Peacock). 

Notre Dame is a massive 27.5-point betting favorite for this home stand. While you’re here, check out the rest of our college football Week 11 predictions – you won’t want to miss out on any of our expert plays for the weekend, including the below Blake Horvath player prop.

✅ Navy vs. Notre Dame prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11.

📊 Navy vs. Notre Dame odds

See live college football odds for every game in Week 11.

🏈 Navy vs. Notre Dame preview & score prediction

After a slow start, Notre Dame is rolling and has asserted itself in the college football playoff race. Quarterback CJ Carr ranks fourth in passing efficiency (170.6). The Irish are a top-seven team in the FPI, the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), and Jeff Sagarin’s rankings. The secondary, which struggled early due to some key injuries, has gotten healthy and looks much improved.

It’s a different story for Navy. The Midshipmen were rolling early and had legitimate playoff hopes, but those probably came to an end with the road loss to North Texas – barring an unexpected upset over Notre Dame. Still, Navy’s strong start came against awful teams, and they are outside the top 70 in the three rating systems discussed above. Yikes. 

Notre Dame won’t do enough to cover

After opening as a 25.5-point favorite, Notre Dame has gotten out to 27.5, which is far too much for me. While the Irish have a sizeable advantage over Navy, the Midshipmen’s slow-paced option offense makes covering just under four touchdowns very difficult. It’s something Notre Dame has done recently in this rivalry, but it’s not something this year’s team has shown the ability to do.

Notre Dame isn’t running away with things like it has recently. Last year, Notre Dame won five games by 28 points or more. That number was six the year before. This year, Notre Dame has just two such wins with four games to go. The Irish are just 3-5 against the spread on the year, winning by an average margin of 17.6 but covering by a slim average margin of +1.7, largely due to the 5-point spread versus Arkansas.

Navy’s offense will score points. The Midshipmen rank second in yards per play (7.4) and lead the FBS in line yards per rush (3.8), which bodes well versus a Notre Dame front that is mid-pack in the metric. With rain in the forecast, lock in Navy to cover the generous 27.5-point spread for -110 (52.4%) at FanDuel to score a $9.26 profit on a $10 bet.

Score prediction: Notre Dame 34, Navy 17

🆚 Navy vs. Notre Dame matchup to watch

Blake Horvath vs. Notre Dame front seven

Navy quarterback Blake Horvath is the centerpiece of the option offense. He has been excellent this year, averaging a career-best 115.8 rushing yards per game on 6.7 yards per carry. While the Notre Dame defense poses a challenge – the Irish rank 11th in rushing yards allowed per game (89.3) – I expect Horvath to pop on the ground.

Notre Dame’s per-game stats obfuscate shaky per-play stats that point to value since Navy’s option offense keeps the ball on the ground. Notre Dame is around the FBS average in line yards allowed per rush (2.8) and is below the league average in defensive stuff rate (18.8%). While the Irish excel in the second level and open field, Horvath should get consistent gains that will add up.

With his line at 82.5 rushing yards, let’s back Horvath to go Over a number that represents a 30-plus yard discount on his season average for -114 (53.3%) at FanDuel. 

Best prop bet: Blake Horvath Over 82.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

📈 Navy vs. Notre Dame betting trends

🌤️ Navy vs. Notre Dame weather

The weather could play a factor in Saturday’s Navy vs. Notre Dame game. The forecast calls for some afternoon rain, with a 61% chance of precipitation that day, including a 75% chance at kickoff. These factors could lead to both sides keeping the ball on the ground, benefiting the Under and Navy.

📺 How to watch Navy vs. Notre Dame

• Date: Saturday, Nov. 8
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, Ind.)
• TV: NBC/Peacock