Navy vs. Cincinnati Picks, Predictions College Football Week 10: Bearcats Look to Bounce Back

Home teams have won four of five all-time meetings between the Bearcats and Midshipmen, including a 42-0 shutout by Cincinnati in 2018, the last matchup to take place at Nippert Stadium.

Henry John

Last updated: November 5, 2022 6:13 AM EDT • 5 min read

After suffering their first conference loss of the season last week, the Cincinnati Bearcats will aim to get back in the win column on Saturday when they host the Navy Midshipmen. Check out our top Navy-Cincinnati picks for Week 10.

It has been a roller coaster of a season so far for Navy (4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U) and that continued to close out the month of October. After getting blown out at home by Houston, the Midshipmen were able to pull out an overtime win over Temple last week. Navy has won three of six after starting the year 0-2.

For Cincinnati (2-5-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U), last week’s defeat at UCF marked the first loss since the season opener against Arkansas. While the Bearcats did manage to rattle off six consecutive wins in between, they have struggled mightily to cover the betting spread. Prior to last week, Cincy had three straight wins over AAC foes come by a combined margin of just 16 points.

Here are our college football picks for the Week 10 matchup between Navy and Cincinnati (odds via SuperBook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Check out our college football best bets and all of our top picks for Week 10.

Navy vs. Cincinnati Game Info

Date: Saturday, Nov. 5, 4 p.m. ET
TV: ESPNU
Location: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Weather: 72 degrees, 38.1% chance of precipitation, 15-16 mph winds SW

Navy vs. Cincinnati Odds

Navy vs. Cincinnati Odds Analysis

While 66% of bets have been placed on Cincinnati to cover the spread, those account for just 23% of the handle as the sharp money seems to be on the Midshipmen. This has helped cause the spread to move from the consensus opening line of Cincinnati -20.5 to -18.5 as of Saturday morning.

The Over/Under has dropped considerably from an opening line of 48.5 to 44 with 64% of the bets accounting for 58% of the handle on the Under.

Navy vs. Cincinnati Picks

Spread: Cincinnati -19 (-110 via SuperBook)
Total: Under 46.5 (-110 via SuperBook)
Prop: Cincinnati Over 31.5 points (-110 via DraftKings)

Navy vs. Cincinnati ATS Pick

Cincinnati -19 (-110) ★★

Although the line has moved against Cincinnati, it would be surprising to see much more of an adjustment. While laying 19 points in a game that features such a low betting total runs against the grain of conventional wisdom, the Bearcats may actually wind up being strong contrarian favorites this week.

From a talent standpoint, the difference between Cincinnati and Navy is seismic. This may not be the same caliber of team as the one that Luke Fickell took all the way to the College Football Playoff a year ago, but the Bearcats are still very good.

Cincy ranks 26th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency entering this matchup. That’s bad news for a Navy offense that has been extremely inconsistent this season. While the Midshipmen have managed to score at least 20 points in five of their last six games, this will easily be the toughest defense they have faced to date.

On the other side of the ball, junior quarterback Ben Bryant has adequately stepped into the role vacated by Desmond Ridder’s departure to the NFL. Cincinnati actually ranks 39th in the country in passing yards per game. As the secondary is the primary weakness for Navy defensively, the Bearcats should be able to exploit this.

Thanks to Cincinnati’s repeated inability to cover against lesser opponents, it’s no wonder why many public bettors are hesitant to lay this hefty number. Many bettors also liked Navy as a much smaller home underdog two weeks ago against a more-talented Houston team. The Midshipmen were outclassed in that game, and a similar outcome seems likely on Saturday.

Navy vs. Cincinnati O/U Pick

Under 46.5 (-110) ★★

Not only did we go against conventional wisdom by laying the points in a game featuring a low total, but we are also going to lean toward the Under when it comes to our pick for said total. It may prove difficult to cash both wagers, but there certainly is a middle ground available.

Any game involving one of the service academies will automatically feature a greater dose of run plays. Navy has been involved in several high-scoring affairs recently, but those games all came against teams who are vastly inferior to Cincinnati defensively.

To date, Arkansas is the only team to score more than 30 against the Bearcats this season. Furthermore, Cincinnati has held six different opponents to 24 points or fewer. Although UC is only average in terms of rushing yards allowed per game, bettors must consider the size and physicality advantages that the defensive front will have over the Midshipmen.

Not to be outdone, Navy has also been quite solid defensively against the run this season. As such, the Midshipmen have the potential to force Cincinnati into a relatively one-dimensional offensive attack.

In terms of adjusted efficiency, both schools rank outside of the top 70 on the offensive side of the ball. Even with the line move that has already transpired, the Under remains the preferred option.

Navy vs. Cincinnati Prop Pick

Cincinnati team total Over 31.5 points (-110) ★★

With a belief that Cincinnati can exploit the vulnerable Navy pass defense, there’s good reason to believe that the Bearcats will account for most of the scoring in Saturday’s game.

From a historical standpoint, Cincinnati has had little trouble putting up points against Navy in recent meetings. The Bearcats scored 32 as a road underdog in 2017, 42 in 2018 and 27 last year. It’s worth noting that the Midshipmen had to pitch a shutout in the fourth quarter of last year’s game for Cincy to finish with 27 points.

Where to Bet on Navy vs. Cincinnati Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Navy-Cincinnati picks made 11/3/2022 at 1:40 p.m. ET

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.