College Football National Championship Odds & Prediction at Thanksgiving: Who'll Win 2026 Natty?

The SEC may be the conference where it just means more, but the Big Ten has accounted for the last two national titles (Michigan, Ohio State), and the two teams atop the college football national championship odds at Thanksgiving hail from the Midwest.

With Ohio State (+185) and Indiana (+500) leading the way less than a month out from the start of the College Football Playoff, will the Big Ten make it three in a row, or will the SEC finally get back to winning national titles?

📊 College football national championship odds: Who'll win 2026 Natty?

Our college football championship odds update in real time based on the latest college football odds.

🌰 Favorite to win college football playoff: Ohio State (+185)

After bouncing back from its loss to Michigan in The Game last year, Ohio State went on to dominate the College Football Playoff on its way to a national title as the No. 8 seed. And despite losing a plethora of players to the NFL, Ryan Day has reloaded and has the Buckeyes a win against Michigan away from likely playing Indiana in the Big Ten Championship.

There's no reason to second-guess the Buckeyes being the favorite to repeat this season. Second-year quarterback Julian Sayin has emerged as a Heisman Trophy odds contender in his first season as a starter, and he's throwing to the best one-two punch at wide receiver in the country in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Plus, the emergence of freshman running back Lamar "Bo" Jackson in recent weeks has helped make Brian Hartline's offense more balanced.

But what makes Ohio State such a scary threat is Matt Patricia's defense, which has four potential first-round picks on it (Arvell Reese, Caleb Downs, Sonny Styles, Kayden McDonald). That foursome has helped the Buckeyes hold opponents to the fewest PPG in the country (7.6), while ranking No. 1 in defensive SP+.

Bad value Buckeyes?

That said, it's hard to justify betting on the Buckeyes with these odds so short, they pay just an $18.50 profit on a $10 winning bet. Last year, Oregon entered the College Football Playoff as the undefeated favorite (+350) as the No. 1 seed and lost 41-21 to the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl. 

I'm not saying Ohio State won't win it all, but this is a tough price to swallow with it being half of what Oregon's was in a similar situation last year. Something else to consider, too, is the fact that Ohio State has played just one currently ranked team (No. 16 Texas) and has a strength of schedule ranked 58th by SP+.

🌾 Prediction to win college football playoff: A Big Ten team

Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon are all ranked in the top six in the CFP selection committee's most recent rankings. Both the Buckeyes and Hoosiers are such locks for the postseason that their College Football Playoff odds have been pulled, while the Ducks have the second-shortest odds left on the board (-1115).

Though the Buckeyes aren't a great value at +185, there's no doubting they've been the best team in the country this season. But Indiana has been a close second, with QB Fernando Mendoza expected to win the Heisman and the Hoosiers having the second-best defense in the nation behind Ohio State. 

Meanwhile, Oregon has been just a hair behind the two teams atop the Big Ten standings, with the Ducks' only loss coming at the hands of Indiana. And with QB Dante Moore and tight end Kenyon Sadiq taking Oregon's offense to another level in recent weeks, the Ducks look like one of the most well-rounded teams in the sport.

Buckeyes, Hoosiers, Ducks, oh my

Whether it's Ohio State, Indiana, or Oregon, my money is on the Big Ten winning a third straight title. There's a reason the Buckeyes, Hoosiers, and Ducks account for three of the top four spots in the SP+ rankings. With each program having a future first-round pick at QB, several NFL-level playmakers, well-built offensive lines, and elite defenses.

If Ohio State's price at +185 is hard to justify this far out, the play is backing Indiana or Oregon. If the Hoosiers win it all, a $10 bet pays a $50 profit, and if Dan Lanning brings the Ducks a title, a $10 bet pays a $130 profit. 

🏴‍☠️ Best long-shot pick to win college football playoff: Texas Tech (+1400)

So three of the top four teams in the SP+ rankings come from the Big Ten and while you'd assume that fourth team must be an SEC team like Texas A&M or Georgia, it's actually Texas Tech's million(s) dollar roster. The Red Raiders have clearly put Cody Campbell's booster money to good use.

Thanks to the infusion of money from Campbell, a billionaire who played at Tech under Mike Leach, head coach Joey McGuire and GM James Blachard were able to build this roster with premier talent in the transfer portal.

With transfers like David Bailey (Stanford), Romello Height (Georgia Tech), Howard Sampson (North Carolina), and Terrance Carter Jr. (Louisiana) joining a roster that already had some dudes in quarterback Behren Morton, linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, and running back Cameron Dickey, the Red Raiders have been a runaway freight train in the Big 12 this season. 

Though Texas Tech has one blemish on its record this season, that loss came to Arizona State when Morton missed the game with an injury. But when McGuire's team is healthy, it's beaten up on the Big 12's best teams, outscoring Utah and BYU 63-17.

This is the only team in the country that ranks top four in both offensive and defensive SP+, and it could potentially earn a bye week if the CFP committee punishes the losers of the Big Ten or SEC Championship. 

If Texas Tech can win the Big 12 its first national title since 2005 (Texas), a $10 bet on the Red Raiders pays a $140 profit.

❓ College football national championship FAQs

Who is the favorite to win the college football national championship?

Ohio State is the favorite to win the college football national championship for the 2025-26 season. The Buckeyes' odds (+185) imply a 35.09% probability that they'll repeat as champions, according to our odds calculator.

Who won the college football national championship last year?

The Ohio State Buckeyes won last year's CFP National Championship, defeating the Notre Dame Fighting Irish 34-23 in Atlanta.

When will the college football national championship be decided?

The 2026 college football national championship will be decided on Monday, Jan. 19.

Where will the college football national championship take place?

The 2026 college football national championship will be played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

When does the College Football Playoff start?

The 2025-2026 College Football Playoff begins Friday, Dec. 19, with the first of four first-round games; the other three will be played Saturday, Dec. 20. The quarterfinal games will then be played on Wednesday, Dec. 31, and Thursday, Jan. 1.

The semifinal games will be Thursday, Jan. 8, and Friday, Jan. 9, with the championship game slated for Monday, Jan. 19, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

How to watch the College Football Playoff and the college football national championship

The first round of the College Football Playoff will be on ABC/ESPN and TNT/truTV/HBO. Each ensuing round, including the national championship game, will be broadcast on ESPN.

How to bet on the college football national championship

You can bet on the college football national championship at our best college football betting sites.