Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Prediction & Expert Picks Tonight: 2025 Xbox Bowl Best Bets
Tonight's Xbox Bowl will be the center of attention in the college football world as the only bowl game on the docket, and my Missouri State vs. Arkansas State predictions look at how having a head coach and multiple players in the transfer portal will impact the Bears. Kickoff from Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas, is set for 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2).
Arkansas State opened as a 2.5-point betting favorite to a 1.5-point underdog despite all of Missouri State's transfer departures. Let's get right into my predictions for the fourth of 10 college football bowl games this week.
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🏈 Missouri State vs. Arkansas State prediction: 2025 Xbox Bowl
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| Xbox Bowl predictions | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State ML | -110 (Caesars) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Corey Rucker anytime TD | +110 (bet365) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Arkansas State ML (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Missouri State's first season at the FBS level went so well that head coach Ryan Beard got hired by Coastal Carolina. With Beard gone, several key pieces to the Bears' success are in the transfer portal, including their two best offensive linemen.
Butch Jones' program should be able to take advantage and pressure Missouri State QB Jacob Clark enough to keep him in check - the Red Wolves rank top 15 in the Group of Six in sacks (31).
Meanwhile, Arkansas State has enough playmakers with Jaylen Raynor at QB to outscore the Bears and win a second straight bowl game.
Score prediction: Arkansas State 24, Missouri State 20
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🙌 Best Missouri State vs. Arkansas State TD pick: Xbox Bowl
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Corey Rucker, WR, Arkansas State: Anytime TD (+110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The most accomplished receiver in Arkansas State history is poised to go out with a bang against a Missouri State defense that is down three of its top defensive linemen. That should give Raynor plenty of time in the pocket to find his favorite target for a score in the Xbox Bowl.
Corey Rucker, the program's all-time leader in receiving touchdowns (26), is the focal point of the Red Wolves' offense, and that won't change. He's No. 6 in the country in targets (113) and has seen double-digit targets in seven of his last eight games, which included scoring twice in the regular-season finale against Appalachian State.
Rucker is averaging 8.4 receptions for 107.7 yards on 13 targets per game over his last eight outings. Given his workload and connection with Raynor, I expect him to get plenty of opportunities to score against a program ranked No. 110 in defensive SP+.
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📝 Top NFL draft prospects for Xbox Bowl
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| Player | Position | Key stats | NFL draft grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dunbar, Missouri State | CB | Allowing a 61.4 NFL QB rating when targeted | Round 6-UDFA |
| Corey Rucker, Arkansas State | WR | Arkansas State's all-time leader in receiving yards (3,903) | Round 6-UDFA |
| Jacob Clark, Missouri State | QB | Fifth in country in big-time throw rate (6.9%) | Round 7-UDFA |
| Avante Dickerson, Arkansas State | CB | 48 tackles, 2 INTs | Round 7-UDFA |
📊 Live Missouri State vs. Arkansas State odds: Xbox Bowl
See the latest college football odds for every bowl game in real time.
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State opening odds
- Moneyline: Missouri State +115 | Arkansas State -135
- Spread: Missouri State +2.5 (-110) | Arkansas State -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 56.5 (-110) | Under 56.5 (-110)
📈 Missouri State vs. Arkansas State betting trends
| Missouri State | Statistic | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | W-L record | 6-6 |
| 7-5 | ATS record | 7-4-1 |
| 4-8 | O/U record | 4-8 |
| 6.0 | Yards per play | 5.1 |
| 5.9 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1 |
| 0.0 | Turnover margin | -0.7 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
| L, 42-30 vs. Louisiana Tech | Previous result | W, 30-29 vs. Appalachian State |
📺 How to watch Missouri State vs. Arkansas State: Xbox Bowl
- Date: Thursday, Dec. 18
- Kickoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
- TV: ESPN2
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