Michigan vs. Penn State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 11: Can Allar Crack Stingy Pass Defense?
The Penn State Nittany Lions' passing game faces a challenging assignment against a top-tier Michigan Wolverines defense on Saturday, but our top Michigan vs. Penn State prediction believes the game script will allow the Nittany Lions to have success through the air. All our college football picks are based on the NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps.
After falling short against Ohio State a few weeks ago, Penn State (8-1) faces another significant challenge as they host undefeated Michigan (9-0) in Happy Valley this weekend. The Nittany Lions, eager to rebound from their first notable test of the season, are up against an undefeated Wolverines team, setting the stage for a critical matchup with potential implications for both teams' postseason aspirations.
Can the Penn State passing attack succeed against the stingy Michigan secondary?
Check out our college football Week 11 predictions and college football best bets, to accompany our best Michigan vs. Penn State prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Michigan vs. Penn State prediction
Drew Allar Over 187.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
A significant factor in Michigan’s 9-0 start to the season has been its top-ranked pass defense in college football. The Wolverines have allowed just 141.3 passing yards per game, a mark more than a dozen yards better than any other team in the country.
However, my thought process in playing this prop revolves around that statistic being wholly untested. Michigan has faced only one passing offense that ranks inside the top 80 in yards per game this season: UNLV, which ranks 59th. The vast majority of Michigan’s games have come against some of the worst passing offenses in the country.
Allar has cleared this passing line in five of nine games this season, but a number of the games in which it didn’t happen can reasonably be attributed to Penn State simply not needing to rely upon the passing game as much. Of the four games in which Allar fell short of 200 passing yards, Penn State won by four or more touchdowns three different times.
The lone other occasion was the Ohio State loss. But with the switch in venue to State College, I believe the Nittany Lions will be able to count on a better passing effort despite Michigan’s success in that area defensively. The Wolverines are also elite against the run, so passing may be the only avenue PSU has at its disposal to keep pace with Michigan’s offense.
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Michigan vs. Penn State best odds
FanDuel (-114)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 193.5 passing yards | Over 187.5 passing yards | N/A | Over 193.5 passing yards | Over 195.5 passing yards |
| -115 | -114 | N/A | -115 | -115 |
DraftKings and Caesars list Allar’s passing total at 193.5 passing yards with -115 odds on an Over bet. While those lines are more favorable than the 195.5 passing yards line at bet365, there’s a clear value advantage to playing this prop at FanDuel.
The current FanDuel line is 187.5 passing yards with solid -114 odds on Over. We would play this prop as a three-star recommendation up to 199.5 passing yards.
Michigan vs. Penn State odds
Michigan vs. Penn State odds analysis
Michigan opened as a 2.5-point road favorite, but the line has moved to between -4.5 and -5.5 across our best sports betting apps. The spread bets are split down the middle as of this writing.
We’ve seen substantial movement on the total since the opening number. From 55.5, we now see the total down to between 45.5 and 46 with the majority of wagers coming in on the total.
Michigan vs. Penn State game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 11 at Noon ET
- Where: Beaver Stadium, State College, PA
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 45 degrees, 11 mph winds, 1% precipitation
Michigan-Penn State prediction made 11/08/2023 at 3:15 p.m. ET.
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