Miami vs. Florida Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 1

In-state rivals clash on Saturday of the opening week of the college football season, and we have you covered with our Miami vs. Florida prediction.

Mike Spector

Last updated: August 30, 2024 12:48 PM EDT • 5 min read

Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier talks with QB Graham Mertz and running back Montrell Johnson Jr. as we make our best Miami vs. Florida prediction. — Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier talks with QB Graham Mertz and running back Montrell Johnson Jr. Photo by: Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun/USA TODAY Network.

Two in-state rivals, the Miami Hurricanes and Florida Gators, battle in Gainesville, Fla., in a high-profile Week 1 showdown. While neither team is a top contender in the college football championship odds, the rivals will garner plenty of attention.

Florida is projected for just 5.9 wins this season at ESPN Analytics and tabs the Gators as having the toughest schedule among FBS teams. But can we make the case for the Gators pulling a Week 1 upset as home underdogs in our Miami vs. Florida predictions? Will others in our Week 1 college football predictions succeed in that role?

Meanwhile, Miami is one of four ACC teams in the AP preseason top 25, and ESPN Analytics gives the Hurricanes a 10% chance (fourth-best) of winning the conference this season, which you can bet at our best college football betting sites.

Best Miami vs. Florida picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

Game pick: Florida ML (+120 via BetMGM) vs. Miami ⭐⭐⭐
Player prop: Montrell Johnson Jr. anytime touchdown scorer (-128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Miami vs. Florida prediction: Week X

Florida ML (+120) ⭐⭐⭐

Rare Home ‘Dogs

Since 1990, Florida has been an underdog in its home opener just one other time, and that was when the Gators upset Utah 29-26 in head coach Billy Napier’s debut with the team in 2022.

Wins will not be easy for the Gators late in the season, as they have six games against AP preseason top-15 opponents in their final seven games. But I expect Florida to upset Miami in this home opener on the strength of a mammoth offensive line whose average size is 6-foot-6 and 326 pounds.

Cristobal On the Hot Seat?

While Napier is perhaps on the hottest of seats among head coaches in the country, let’s not forget that Mario Cristobal is 12-13 in two seasons in Miami despite inheriting a massively talented team.

I expect the offense to need time to gel after bringing in transfers Cam Ward and Damien Martinez at quarterback and running back. Miami’s defense struggled against top offenses last year, allowing more than 32 points per game in the five games played against units that finished in the top 50.

As long as the point spread stays less than a field goal (it is most commonly at +2.5 at most of our best sports betting sites), I am going to try to more than double my investment with a moneyline play, as a $10 winning wager returns $12 in profits.

Best odds: +120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 45.45%

Up To $1,500 First Bet

Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.

Claim $1,500

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Miami vs. Florida player prop

Montrell Johnson Jr. anytime touchdown scorer (-128) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Running back Johnson Jr. runs behind an experienced line with seven players who made at least one start last season. Johnson is a bulldozer who averaged 3.0 yards per carry after contact, and when opponents did not respect Graham Mertz, stacked boxes did not bother him - he averaged more than five yards per carry against seven-man fronts.

Johnson no longer has to compete with Trevor Etienne for touches in the backfield (transferred to Georgia), and Miami returns just one-third of its defenders who played 200 or more snaps a year ago.

Johnson scored a touchdown in two of the final five games against ranked opponents last year. In the games he didn’t score, he either averaged 7.1 yards per carry or better (at Missouri and vs. Georgia) or totaled 135 yards (at LSU).

Johnson’s implied probability of scoring a touchdown is as high as 58.33% with DraftKings’ -140 odds, so this wager is a great value in comparison.

Best odds: -128 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 56.14%

Bet $5, Win $200 in Bonus Bets

New customers only. Min. deposit $5+. Bet $5+ and win $200 in Bonus Bets, if your bet wins (within 72 hours). Bet does not have to win in AZ, CO, KS, NC, or TN.

Claim $200

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Miami vs. Florida odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Miami vs. Florida game info

When: Saturday, Aug. 31
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainsville, Fla.
How to watch: ABC/ESPN+
Weather: 91 degrees, 24% change of precipitation, wind 7 mph E
Favorite: Miami -2.5 (-112 via DraftKings)

College football betting odds pages

College football championship odds	College football win totals	Big Ten championship odds	Mountain West championship odds
Heisman Trophy Odds	FCS Championship odds	Big 12 championship odds	MAC championship odds
College Football Playoff Odds	SEC championship odds	ACC championship odds	College bowl game odds

Here are our best college football betting sites:

Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission

Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)

Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”