Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan Prediction & Opening Odds for MAC Championship

This year's MAC Championship is a rematch from just a few weeks ago, but with a key change at the QB position from that Oct. 25 game, my Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan prediction is backing the Mustangs to get revenge against the RedHawks.

Western Michigan is a 2.5-point betting favorite for Saturday's matchup at Ford Field in Detroit (noon ET, ESPN), and my early picks and college football conference championship predictions expect Lance Taylor to bring a MAC Championship to Kalamazoo, Mich., for the first time in nearly a decade.

Early Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan prediction & betting preview

Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football picks for conference championship week.

Western Michigan -2.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While this is the third straight MAC Championship Chuck Martin has taken Miami (OH) to, and just the second appearance by Western Michigan in over 20 years, the Mustangs enter as the best team in the conference. Although WMU's only loss in MAC play came on the road at the hands of the RedHawks, Martin's team has had a massive shake-up at the QB position since then. 

Dequan Finn, who won MAC MVP in 2023 at Toledo and had been among the best QBs in the conference this year at Miami (OH), abruptly left the program following a loss to Ohio. And while freshman Thomas Gotkowski has been productive in his two starts, they came against Buffalo and Ball State - both rank outside the top 70 in defensive SP+.

Meanwhile, the Mustangs have the best defense in the MAC (No. 46 by SP+) and an offense that leans heavily on the run game and QB Broc Lowry's legs. The Broncos are No. 55 in EPA per rush on offense, while the RedHawks are just No. 97 in EPA per rush on defense.

Western Michigan is 8-3-1 ATS this season, second-best in the MAC, and if the Mustangs cover again (52.38% probability), a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.

Live Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan odds: MAC Championship

See the latest college football odds for every game in conference championship week.

Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan opening odds

• Moneyline: Miami (OH) +120 | Western Michigan -140
• Spread: Miami (OH) +3 (-110) | Western Michigan -3 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 44 (-110) | Under 44 (-110)

Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan line movement

There's been minimal early line movement at our best college football betting sites for the MAC Championship. Western Michigan opened and remains a 2.5 to 3-point betting favorite, and I don't expect that to change much with WMU being the best team in the MAC this season. And while Miami (OH) did beat the Broncos in the regular season, the QB change makes it harder to project what the RedHawks will look like against a quality defense.

I'd take the Broncos to cover sooner than later, because there's a chance this line shifts further in their direction with 72% of early bettors on WMU.

Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan trends & betting notes

• Western Michigan is 5-2-1 ATS in MAC play this season
• Miami (OH) is 1-4 ATS as an underdog this season
• The RedHawks are the second-best Over team in the MAC at 7-5
• The Broncos are 4-1 betting the Over since Week 9

How to watch Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
• Kickoff: Noon ET
• Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
• TV: ESPN

Early conference championship predictions

• Early Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State prediction: Conference USA Championship
• Early Troy vs. James Madison prediction: Sun Belt Championship
• Early North Texas vs. Tulane prediction: American Conference Championship
• Early UNLV vs. Boise State prediction: Mountain West Championship
• Early BYU vs. Texas Tech prediction: Big 12 Championship
• Early Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan prediction: MAC Championship
• Early Duke vs. Virginia prediction: ACC Championship
• Early Georgia vs. Alabama prediction: SEC Championship (coming soon)
• Early Indiana vs. Ohio State prediction: Big Ten Championship (coming soon)