LSU vs. Alabama Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 11 Betting Preview

LSU gets a huge road test in its first game under interim head coach Frank Wilson against No. 4 Alabama, and I break down this SEC matchup with my LSU vs. Alabama prediction. The Crimson Tide are a 10-point betting favorite ahead of kickoff from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC).

Oddsmakers expect the Tigers to lose their third straight game, but despite Alabama’s home dominance, my college football Week 11 predictions expect LSU to rally behind its interim coach as the road underdog.

✅ LSU vs. Alabama prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11.

📊 LSU vs. Alabama odds

See live college football odds for every game in Week 11.

🏈 LSU vs. Alabama preview & score prediction

Alabama enters amid a 23-game home winning streak against SEC opponents, and has covered the spread in each of its last seven home games. But I am fading this trend and backing the one that says that over the last three years, underdogs led by interim coaches are covering at a 64% clip. Perhaps a strong showing could change Wilson's odds of being LSU's next head coach.

LSU should see third-down regression

I am not declaring that the sky is falling on the LSU program, even though it will be looking for a new head coach this offseason, given that it has lost two road games to top-10 teams by a combined 12 points.  Alabama has a top-six defense in drive efficiency surrendered, but LSU’s is in the ballpark, ranked 42nd, and even better at No. 4 on a per-play basis. 

What has gotten the Tigers into trouble is that they are the worst defense in the conference on third down, and the bottom four in third-down conversions allowed through the air. Conversely, Alabama’s offense converts 52% of its third-down opportunities in SEC play (second behind Arkansas).

LSU is also the worst third-down offense in the SEC, converting at a 28.8% rate. But I expect regression in that area, and the Tigers should be able to hang in this game if they can improve upon their 14th-best SEC ranking in scoring touchdowns within an opponent’s 25-yard line. 

Alabama allows touchdowns on just 55% of opponents’ red zone trips. That is why I am also making a small play on the Under, which has cashed in each of Alabama’s last four home games.

LSU +10 is my most confident four-star play, and a $10 winning wager through Caesars’s standard -110 juice at 52.38% implied odds would net $9.09 in profits with a Tigers cover.

Score prediction: Alabama 24, LSU 17

🆚 LSU vs. Alabama matchup to watch

Ty Simpson vs. LSU secondary

The way to beat LSU this year has been on the ground, as the interior of its defensive line is the weakest unit. Meanwhile, the Tigers rank fourth in the SEC in passing yards per game allowed, and is similar to Alabama’s secondary with both allowing just over three yards per attempt. 

LSU is one of three SEC teams with more interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed. Therefore, I expect a low volume passing day from Simpson, and for him to finish with 253 or fewer passing yards for the fourth straight conference game.

FanDuel’s -114 odds carry a 53.27% implied probability, and would net $8.77 on a winning $10 wager.

Best prop bet: Ty Simpson Under 272.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

📈 LSU vs. Alabama betting trends

🌤️ LSU vs. Alabama weather

Temperatures will be in the mid-50s in Tuscaloosa on Saturday night. Neither wind nor rain should be an issue, as the wind is steady at 2 mph and there's only a 4% chance of precipitation.

📺 How to watch LSU vs. Alabama

• Date: Saturday, Nov. 8
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)
• TV: ABC