LSU vs. Alabama Prediction: Tonight's College Football Week 11 Betting Preview & Odds
It's a pretty big test for interim head coach Frank Wilson as he takes LSU on the road to face No. 4 Alabama today, and my LSU vs. Alabama prediction breaks down what we should expect in his first game ruling the sidelines. Oddsmakers don't expect much. The Crimson Tide have been bet up to a 10.5-point betting favorite ahead of kickoff from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
Despite Alabama’s home dominance, my college football Week 11 predictions expect LSU to rally in tonight's matchup.
✅ LSU vs. Alabama prediction & expert picks
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🏈 LSU vs. Alabama preview & score prediction
Alabama enters amid a 23-game home winning streak against SEC opponents, and has covered the spread in each of its last seven home games. But I am fading this trend and backing the one that says that over the last three years, underdogs led by interim coaches are covering at a 64% clip. Perhaps a strong showing could change Wilson's odds of being LSU's next head coach.
LSU should see third-down regression
I am not declaring that the sky is falling on the LSU program, even though it will be looking for a new head coach this offseason, given that it has lost two road games to top-10 teams by a combined 12 points. Alabama has a top-six defense in drive efficiency surrendered, but LSU’s is in the ballpark, ranked 42nd, and even better at No. 4 on a per-play basis.
What has gotten the Tigers into trouble is that they are the worst defense in the conference on third down, and the bottom four in third-down conversions allowed through the air. Conversely, Alabama’s offense converts 52% of its third-down opportunities in SEC play (second behind Arkansas).
LSU is also the worst third-down offense in the SEC, converting at a 28.8% rate. But I expect regression in that area, and the Tigers should be able to hang in this game if they can improve upon their 14th-best SEC ranking in scoring touchdowns within an opponent’s 25-yard line.
Alabama allows touchdowns on just 55% of opponents’ red zone trips. That is why I am also making a small play on the Under, which has cashed in each of Alabama’s last four home games.
LSU +10 is my most confident four-star play, and a $10 winning wager through Caesars’ standard -110 juice at 52.38% implied odds would net $9.09 in profits with a Tigers cover.
Elsewhere, Brenden Schaeffer is eyeing Trey'Dez Green in his LSU vs. Alabama anytime touchdown scorer predictions.
Score prediction: Alabama 24, LSU 17
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🆚 LSU vs. Alabama matchup to watch
Ty Simpson vs. LSU secondary
The way to beat LSU this year has been on the ground, as its interior defensive line is its weakest unit. Meanwhile, the Tigers rank fourth in the SEC in passing yards per game allowed, and are similar to Alabama’s secondary, which allows just over three yards per attempt. Our Brenden Schaeffer focuses on a couple of players who might find success on the ground in his LSU vs. Alabama touchdown scorer bets.
LSU is one of three SEC teams with more interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed. Therefore, I expect a low volume passing day from Simpson and for him to finish with 253 or fewer passing yards for the fourth straight conference game.
FanDuel’s -114 odds carry a 53.27% implied probability, and would net $8.77 on a winning $10 wager.
Our Phil Wood also thinks Simpson will struggle as part of his LSU vs. Alabama player props.
Best prop bet: Ty Simpson Under 272.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
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📈 LSU vs. Alabama betting trends
| LSU | Statistic | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | W-L record | 7-1 |
| 3-5 | ATS record | 5-2-1 |
| 3-5 | O/U record | 4-3-1 |
| 5.59 | Yards per play | 6.07 |
| 5.03 | Yards allowed per play | 5.28 |
| +4 | Turnover margin | +9 |
| 2-3 | Last 5 games | 5-0 |
| L, 49-25 vs. Texas A&M | Previous result | W, 29-22 vs. South Carolina |
🌤️ LSU vs. Alabama weather
Temperatures will be in the mid-50s in Tuscaloosa on Saturday night. Neither wind nor rain should be an issue, as the wind is steady at 2 mph and there's only a 4% chance of precipitation.
📺 How to watch LSU vs. Alabama
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 8
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)
- TV: ABC
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