Louisiana vs. Southern Miss Picks, Predictions College Football Week 9: Defensive Struggle in Sun Belt Contest
The Southern Miss Golden Eagles host the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in a Thursday night Sun Belt rivalry matchup. Check out our top Louisiana-Southern Miss picks below.
The two teams enter Thursday's matchup on two-game win streaks. Louisiana and Southern Miss are both 4-3 overall for the season but the Golden Eagles have the slight edge in conference play with a 2-1 record to the Ragin' Cajuns 2-2 mark in the Sun Belt.
Here are our top picks for the college football Week 9 game between Louisiana and Southern Miss (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 9, as well as our favorite upset picks.
Louisiana vs. Southern Miss Info
Date: Thursday,
Oct. 27, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Location: M.M. Roberts Stadium,
Hattiesburg, MS
Weather: 78 degrees, 7% chance of
precipitation, 5-mph NNE wind
Louisiana vs. Southern Miss Odds
Louisiana vs. Southern Miss Odds Analysis
Louisiana has received the slight majority of support from bettors with 50% of the tickets accounting for 57% of the handle. However, the spread has dropped from a consensus opening line of Louisiana -1.5 to -1 as of Thursday morning.
The Over/Under has fallen from 43 at open to 41.5 on gameday with the Under drawing 82% of the handle on 55% of the tickets.
Louisiana vs. Southern Miss Picks
Louisiana vs. Southern Miss ATS Pick
Louisiana +1 (-110) ★
Louisiana, the reigning Sun Belt champions, will seemingly have to run the table to have a shot at defending last year's conference title after starting 2-2 in league play. Otherwise, a loss this week would put the Ragin' Cajuns at three conference defeats in a division that features three teams (Troy, South Alabama, and Southern Miss) with one conference loss.
Louisiana experimented with a two-quarterback system through the season's first four weeks. However, since Ben Wooldridge has been named starting quarterback, the offense has reached new heights. The Ragin' Cajuns were held to 24 points or fewer in three of the first four games of the season (2-2 in that span) but have averaged 26 in the three contests with Wooldridge under center.
According to Bill Connelly's SP+ postgame win expectancy calculations, Southern Mississippi had the fifth-lowest win expectancy (48%) of all teams that were victorious last week. The Golden Eagles squeaked by a struggling Texas State team in a game during which they committed three turnovers, and that kind of sloppy play would doom them if they played a more formidable opponent like Louisiana.
The Ragin' Cajuns are favored for the first time in the last five meetings between these teams and will snap a four-game cover-less streak in this head-to-head rivalry as favorites this week.
Louisiana vs. Southern Miss O/U Pick
Under 43.5 (-110) ★★★
Wooldridge tied a school record with five touchdown passes last week against Arkansas State, and he has posted a 70 QBR in back-to-back games for the first time all season. Wooldridge takes excellent care of the football with a 10:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, suggesting that the Ragin' Cajuns have a much higher ceiling than their current 95th-ranked Offensive SP+ rating. However, Louisiana and Southern Miss rank in the top 30 in Defensive SP+, so we should be in for a defensive struggle.
The Ragin' Cajuns have faced 38 opponents' scoring opportunities this year and have allowed an above-average 2.9 points per opportunity. In addition, they do not put themselves in bad positions to start drives, as their opponents' starting field position at their own 27-yard line is one of the best in the country.
Louisiana vs. Southern Miss Prop Pick
First half Under 21 (-115) ★★★
In addition to liking the full game Under, we expect the first 30 minutes to be low-scoring. The Under has cashed in six of Louisiana's previous seven Thursday games and is 16-5-1 in its last 22 October games.
The Ragin' Cajuns also tend to limit good teams offensively, with a 14-5-1 record to the Under in their previous 20 games against teams with a winning record.
Additionally, the Under has cashed in the Golden Eagles' last six conference games, another reason we expect scoring at a minimum in the first half.
Where to Bet on Louisiana-Southern Miss Picks
Louisiana-Southern Miss picks made 10/25/2022 at 6:06 a.m. ET
Related Articles
