Kent State vs. Bowling Green Picks, Predictions College Football Week 11: Falcons Continue to Surprise

The Kent State Golden Flashes have won four straight head-to-head matchups, marking their longest-ever winning streak against the Bowling Green Falcons. Read on for our picks and predictions.

Henry John

Last updated: November 9, 2022 5:37 AM EST • 6 min read

Wednesday night’s MACtion tripleheader concludes with a compelling East Division matchup between the Kent State Golden Flashes and the Bowling Green Falcons. Check out our top Kent State-Bowling college football picks.

Coming into the year, many felt that Kent State (3-6 ATS, 3-6 O/U) was primed to contend for the MAC Championship. Things haven’t exactly gone according to plan as an upset loss to Ball State last week marked Kent State’s third conference defeat of the season.

On the flip side, Bowling Green (3-5-1 ATS, 6-3 O/U) has been one of the more pleasant surprises in the conference. The Falcons picked up their third straight win over Western Michigan last week. BGSU now has five wins on the year, which already marks the most wins the program has earned in a season since 2015.

Here are our college football picks for the Week 11 matchup between Kent State and Bowling Green (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Check out our college football Week 11 roundup, games to watch, and best against-the-spread picks.

Kent State vs. Bowling Green Game Info

Date: Wednesday, Nov. 9, 7 p.m. ET
TV: CBSSN
Location: Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH
Weather: 55 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 8-10 mph winds SE

Kent State vs. Bowling Green Odds

Kent State vs. Bowling Green Odds Analysis

Despite the fact that Bowling Green has the better record and home-field advantage, oddsmakers opened Kent State as a 3-point favorite for Wednesday’s matchup.

This is actually one of the first times all year in which the betting market has moved against the Golden Flashes. Consensus odds now list the spread at Kent State -2.5. As far as the betting splits, both the ticket count and handle percentages are very evenly distributed.

At DraftKings, 55% of all ATS bets like Kent State as the favorite. The moneyline percentages are also even, suggesting that the market truly views this game as a toss-up.

As for the game total, the Las Vegas opening line of 57.5 has dropped to the current consensus of 55.5. DraftKings actually lists the line at 55, for those looking for a better number on the Over. While the ticket count is evenly split, 65% of the money is on the Over.

Kent State vs. Bowling Green Picks

Kent State vs. Bowling Green ATS Pick

Kent State -2.5 (-110) ★★

On the surface, everything seems to suggest that Bowling Green should be the favorite. The Falcons have a better overall record, carry a three-game winning streak into Wednesday’s matchup, and are fully in contention to win the MAC East Division. Kent State is also 0-5 on the road this season.

Despite all of this, the Golden Flashes are laying points on the road. As such, it’s difficult not to view Kent State as the right side. Sean Lewis’ team has simply failed to live up to market expectations in conference play. A big reason for this has been an underachieving defense.

In addition, junior quarterback Collin Schlee suffered a knee injury and actually had to miss Kent State’s win over Akron entirely. He returned last week, but was hardly 100% in the loss to Ball State. Assuming that Schlee will be in a better place, one can’t help but give the offensive advantage to Kent State.

The Golden Flashes rank 75th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to just 104th for Bowling Green. Unless the Falcons perform better offensively than they have in recent weeks, it’s tough to envision them doing enough to outscore the potent Kent State offense.

Kent State vs. Bowling Green O/U Pick

Over 55 (-110) ★★★

While Bowling Green is 4-1 in the MAC this season, the jury is still very much out with regard to the team’s offense. The Falcons have been held to 17 points or fewer in three of their five league games to date. Luckily, two of those contests came against very poor offensive clubs. This allowed BGSU to pick up low-scoring wins over Miami (Ohio) and Western Michigan.

Given how underwhelming the Kent State defense has been, one has to believe that the Falcons can have greater success on offense than they have in recent weeks. A common theme between some of Bowling Green’s best offensive games to date is strong play from senior quarterback Matt McDonald.

McDonald will certainly enjoy a favorable matchup on Wednesday night. The Golden Flashes' defense has allowed 295.3 passing yards per game to opponents this season. That mark ranks 123rd out of 131 FBS teams.

On the other side of the ball, Kent State figures to once again lean on star running back Marquez Cooper. Last week’s 168-yard effort put him over 1,000 yards rushing for the season. As Bowling Green comes in allowing over 160 yards per game on the ground, another big performance could be imminent.

The fact that DraftKings’ total of 55 sits at least a half-point lower than all other major sportsbooks in the market makes this the line to target for optimal value.

Kent State vs. Bowling Green Prop Pick

Kent State Over 28.5 points (-115) ★★★

Although Bowling Green has not allowed more than 18 points in any of their last three games, none of the team’s recent opponents are anywhere near as capable offensively as Kent State.

Buffalo is arguably the best offensive team that the Falcons have faced to date. The Bulls gashed Bowling Green for 280 yards on the ground in a 34-7 victory. Bowling Green has not faced a quality offensive opponent since. The Falcons also caught a break against Central Michigan as reigning MAC Freshman of the Year, Lew Nichols, missed the game with an injury.

Case in point, there is absolutely no concrete evidence to suggest that the BGSU defense will be able to slow down Cooper and the Kent State rushing attack in this game. If Schlee proves to be healthier than a week ago, the Golden Flashes will be even more likely to surpass this team total prop line of 28.5 points.

Where to Bet on Kent State vs. Bowling Green

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Kent State vs. Bowling Green picks made 11/8/2022 at 2:45 p.m. ET

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.