Kansas State vs. Alabama Odds, Picks, Predictions College Football: Will Tide Stay Motivated in Sugar Bowl?

Get our best Kansas State vs. Alabama Sugar Bowl college football odds, picks and predictions!

Last updated: December 31, 2022 4:05 AM EST • 4 min read

A rare two-loss season leaves the Alabama Crimson Tide on the outside looking in at the national championship, but they are still favored in Saturday's Sugar Bowl against the Kansas State Wildcats.

Below, we offer up our best Kansas State-Alabama college football pick based on the NCAAF odds for the Sugar Bowl.

Kansas State (10-3) knocked off College Football Playoff participant TCU in the Big XII Championship Game to earn its spot in the Sugar Bowl.

After being underrated at every turn throughout the season, can the Wildcats pull off one more upset when they take on Alabama (10-2) on Saturday?

Here is our best Kansas State vs. Alabama college football pick for the Alamo Bowl (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our college football best bets and all of our top odds and picks for college football's bowl season.

Kansas State vs. Alabama Game Info

Date: Saturday, Dec. 31, noon ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Weather: Indoors

Kansas State vs. Alabama Odds

Kansas State vs. Alabama Odds Analysis

Alabama opened as a consensus favorite of 6 points and that's grown to 7 points as of Saturday morning. Always the popular side, the Crimson Tide are backed by 77% of the tickets against the spread but just 64% of the betting handle.

The consensus Over/Under is up from an opening line of 55.5 to 57 as of Saturday morning with 86% of the tickets making up 91% of the cash wagered on the total.

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Kansas State vs. Alabama Pick

Kansas State +7 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I don’t necessarily subscribe to the notion of Alabama lacking motivation in the Sugar Bowl given that none of its big names have opted out of the contest. However, it would not be wise to overlook a Kansas State team that had to win its conference championship game to earn this opportunity. Whether it’s Will Howard or Adrian Martinez at quarterback, the Wildcats' offense has remained steady

Kansas State was one of the top teams for sports bettors on the season, going 9-3-1 ATS. It feels like a mistake to gift a full touchdown to a team that has ample motivation and has already exceeded expectations at every turn. Though the Crimson Tide have not played a neutral site game this year, it’s notable that Bama was 4-2-1 ATS at home and 1-4 ATS outside the comfort of Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Situation suits K-State

Both teams have a defense that ranks higher in the FPI efficiency rankings than their respective offenses, but the offenses still rank within the top 20 in FBS. Alabama has a narrow edge in virtually every statistical category but rushing offense. The Tide still rank among the top 30 in the category, so it’s not a weakness.

If pressed into an outright pick, I’d probably take the Crimson Tide to win the game. But 7 points is simply too large of a margin between two teams with such similarities on a neutral site, especially given the way the underdog has thrived against the spread this season. This should be one of the most closely-contested bowl games of the season, which means I’m taking the points.

Check out our TCU vs. Michigan picks and our Ohio State vs. Georgia picks for the College Football Playoff!

Kansas State vs. Alabama Best Odds

Check out our best Sugar Bowl odds.

DraftKings (-110)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	PointsBet
+7	+7	+7	+7	+7
-110	-110	-110	-110	-110

Well, this is a rarity. As of Saturday morning, the odds for Kansas State on the point spread are completely identical across our five recommended sportsbooks. The Wildcats are +7 with standard -110 odds across the board.

Earlier in the week, some of the books had Kansas State at +6, but all the lines have since assimilated to ensure there’s really no benefit at one sportsbook over another.

Kansas State-Alabama pick made 12/29/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer

Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.