Skip to main content

TCU vs. Michigan Odds, Picks, Predictions College Football: Fiesta Bowl Fight Offers Championship Berth

Henry John

Last Updated: December 31, 2022 7:44 AM EST • 3 min 34 sec read.

Head coach Jim Harbaugh of the Michigan Wolverines celebrates following the game against the Purdue Boilermakers in the Big Ten Championship at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 4, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Head coach Jim Harbaugh of the Michigan Wolverines celebrates following the game against the Purdue Boilermakers in the Big Ten Championship at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 4, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images via AFP.

An opportunity to play for the national championship is at stake when the TCU Horned Frogs meet the Michigan Wolverines in the Fiesta Bowl, the first of two national semifinal games in the College Football Playoff. Read on for our top TCU-Michigan Fiesta Bowl college football picks based on the best NCAAF odds. 

TCU (9-3-1 ATS, 7-6 O/U) has already had a storybook season just to make it to this point. Despite receiving countless scares from several quality opponents, the Horned Frogs managed to find a way to go 12-0 during the regular season. Despite losing in overtime to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game, TCU still earned the 3-seed in the final College Football Playoff rankings.

It’s safe to say that Michigan (8-4-1 ATS, 5-8 O/U) has proven its doubters very wrong. In fact, this year’s team might be even better than the group that advanced to the College Football Playoff a year ago. After pummeling rival Ohio State on the road, the Wolverines solidified their status as the 2-seed with a 21-point victory over Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Here is our pick for the Fiesta Bowl CFP Semifinal matchup between TCU and Michigan (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Check out our college football best bets, our TCU vs. Michigan SGP Picks, and all of our top odds and picks for college football's bowl season.

TCU vs. Michigan Game Info

Date: Saturday, Dec. 31, 4 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Weather: Indoors

TCU vs. Michigan Odds

TCU vs. Michigan Odds Analysis

Oddsmakers weren’t shy about declaring Michigan as a strong favorite for this CFP Semifinal matchup. Opening lines had the Wolverines favored by 9 points or more, but the spread has moved in TCU’s direction since then. Despite more than 60% of all ATS bets and 58% of the handle at DraftKings Sportsbook being on the favorite, the consensus line has settled in at Michigan -7.5.

The game total has also come down a notch after most books opened up at 59.5. At the time of writing, most of the major shops in the market are listing the Over/Under at 58, though FanDuel is down to 57.5. At DraftKings, 39% of the tickets and 55% of the money are on the Under.

Editor's note: Hey Ohio! Welcome to legal sports betting. Check out the best sites for Ohio sports betting and the best Ohio sportsbook promos!  

TCU vs. Michigan Pick

Michigan -7.5 ⭐⭐

One of the keys in Saturday’s CFP Semifinal matchup will be how well TCU’s defensive front is able to hold up against the Michigan run game. To date, not a single opponent has been able to physically match up against the Wolverines’ offensive line for a full four quarters. Unless the Horned Frogs buck that trend, they could be hard-pressed to stay within a touchdown.

Michigan’s offensive line was able to take home the Joe Moore Award for the second year in a row. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s commitment to the run has resulted in the Wolverines’ physically-dominant O-line wearing down opposing defenses. The byproduct of this was a second-half scoring average of 21.5 points per game, the second-most in the country. 

Without question, Ohio State has been the toughest defensive opponent that Michigan has faced to date. The Buckeyes boast more size in their defensive front seven than TCU, yet still weren’t able to keep the dam from breaking in the latter stages of The Game. The same thing happened in the Big Ten title game against Purdue as Donovan Edwards once again ran wild in the second half.

  Check out our College Football Playoff expert picks!  

Strength meets weakness

What’s more, the Horned Frogs have already struggled to stop opposing rushing attacks on prior occasions. Most recently, Kansas State gashed them for 205 yards on the ground in the Big 12 Championship Game. While TCU was able to stymie Texas running back Bijan Robinson in a mid-November matchup, the Longhorns’ offensive line is a far cry from that of the Wolverines.

TCU also can’t exactly stack the box in this matchup as quarterback J.J. McCarthy is more than capable of finding playmakers like wideout Ronnie Bell down the field. QB Max Duggan and the Frogs’ offense may be able to keep pace for a while, but doing so for 60 minutes is a tall order.

Check out our Ohio State vs. Georgia picks!

TCU vs. Michigan Best Odds

Check out our best Fiesta Bowl odds.

FanDuel (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
-7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5
-110-112-110-110-110

With Michigan -7.5 representing the best line available in the market, shopping the odds boils down to locating the cheapest price. FanDuel was offering the Wolverines at -108, but has shifted to -112 while the other top sportsbooks remain at -110 on the Wolverines -7.5.

It should be noted that there are a couple of sportsbooks listing Michigan as an 8-point favorite. In some cases, the accompanying odds may present the opportunity to lay less juice than FanDuel’s offering. However, bettors are encouraged to obtain the additional half-point of value as opposed to laying a larger number.

TCU vs. Michigan picks made on Thursday, 12/29/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related Pages

Written By:
Henry John
Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.