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TCU vs. Michigan SGP Odds, Picks, Predictions College Football: Running Backs to Dominate Fiesta Bowl

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: December 31, 2022 7:45 AM EST • 2 min 30 sec read.

Donovan Edwards of the Michigan Wolverines runs the ball against the Purdue Boilermakers at Lucas Oil Stadium on Dec. 03, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Donovan Edwards of the Michigan Wolverines runs the ball against the Purdue Boilermakers at Lucas Oil Stadium on Dec. 03, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images via AFP.

Saturday's Fiesta Bowl pits the TCU Horned Frogs against the Michigan Wolverines with a trip to the College Football Playoff National Championship on the line. Read on for our top TCU vs. Michigan SGP picks based on the best college football odds.

Despite a loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game, TCU (12-1) can win a national title. Standing in the way is an unbeaten Michigan (13-0) defense that could hinder TCU’s high-octane offense.

Here are our best TCU vs. Michigan SGP Fiesta Bowl picks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our college football best bets and our TCU vs. Michigan picks.

TCU vs. Michigan SGP Picks Week 17

  • Under 58.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Donovan Edwards Over 129.5 rushing yards (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Kendre Miller Over 69.5 rushing yards (-160) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Combined Odds: +600 (via DraftKings)

TCU vs. Michigan Odds

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SGP Predictions for TCU vs. Michigan

Under 58.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Though both offenses rank among the NCAAF's top 12 in offensive efficiency and can pile on points, neither was a dominant force for Over bettors this season. TCU games are 7-6 on Overs. Only four Horned Frogs games fell below this 58.5-point total in 2022.

The Frogs allow 25.7 points per game but it’s Michigan’s defense that can truly carry the day for the Under Saturday. The Wolverines gave up just 13.4 opponent PPG this year. Michigan’s elite D led to a 4-8-1 record for the Over in matchups involving the Wolverines.

Michigan runs one of college football's most deliberate offensive paces, averaging 29.6 seconds per play. Its ability to use the run to control time of possession shortens games and puts its defense in favorable spots. It fell throughout the week, but the current SGP number at DraftKings (58.5) beats the FanDuel value line at 57.5.

Check out our College Football Playoff expert picks!

Donovan Edwards Over 129.5 rushing yards (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Bet Over on offensive player props to gain a bonus for contrarian plays within our SGP. Michigan running back Donovan Edwards is an obvious horse to back as he's taken charge following fellow RB Blake Corum’s season-ending injury.

Edwards piled up 47 carries for 401 yards and three touchdowns against Ohio State and Purdue combined, reaching 185 rushing yards in both games. The Horned Frogs give up 154 opponent rushing YPG. Edwards says he won’t let a hand injury limit him in the Fiesta Bowl--believe him.

Set at 129.5 yards with +105 Over odds, take DraftKings' offering on Edwards’ rushing total. FanDuel’s number is slightly lower at 126.5, but the -114 odds pale in comparison to DK's prop.

Kendre Miller Over 69.5 rushing yards (-160) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Michigan's run defense is one of the best, but RB Kendre Miller cleared this rushing line in 10 of his last 11 contests. He’s a talented player who will play a featured role in TCU's game plan despite the matchup concerns.

Under DK's alternate rushing lines, Miller is -160 to eclipse 69.5 yards and +105 to clear 79.5 yards. Though TCU can keep this game competitive, betting the riskier rushing line for an underdog back isn't prudent. The more conservative offer still gets combined odds to a respectable +600.

At FanDuel, you’ll need Miller to get Over 73.5 rushing yards. FD's +848 combined parlay odds are tempting, but the game total difference has us leaning toward DraftKings. If the total drops down any lower at DK, switching the parlay to FD is more than justified. 

TCU-Michigan SGP picks made 12/30/2022 at 4:16 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Since graduating from the University of Missouri in 2016, Brenden Schaeffer has covered the St. Louis Cardinals and Blues hockey as a writer for KMOV in St. Louis. He also co-hosts 'The Big Show' on KTGR radio in Columbia, Missouri. The show airs in afternoon drive, weekdays from 4-6 p.m. Brenden has contributed to SBR since 2021, providing insights on NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, and the NBA. You can download his daily baseball podcast, B-Schaeff Daily, on Spotify or Apple podcasts, and you can find Brenden across social media @bschaeffer12.