James Madison vs. Air Force Prediction, Pick & Odds: Armed Forces Bowl
James Madison plays in its first collegiate bowl against Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl, and we're breaking down Saturday's matchup with our James Madison vs. Air Force prediction for the Armed Forces Bowl based on the best college football odds at the best college football betting sites.
James Madison (11-1) nearly went undefeated in only its second year at the FBS level. It enters its first-ever collegiate bowl game this Saturday against Air Force (8-4), which makes its second straight appearance in the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, TX.
Although this might appear as a mismatch on paper, the teams on the field won't exactly mirror the ones that earned a berth in this game, as is typical during bowl season. And the market has already responded sharply in favor of the underdogs.
As part of our look at all college bowl game odds and our college football prop picks for Saturday, here is our best James Madison vs. Air Force prediction and our college football picks for Saturday's Armed Forces Bowl (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
James Madison vs. Air Force prediction: Armed Forces Bowl
Air Force +2.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In theory, James Madison, initially favored by 7 points in this matchup, presents a strong matchup against Air Force. The Dukes boast the nation's most stringent run defense, allowing just 61.5 yards per game, and sit in the top 20 for scoring defense, conceding 19.9 points per game. Despite possessing one of the weakest secondaries nationally, these strengths seem well-tailored to counter the Falcons' distinctive triple-option offense.
Offensively, JMU slots in the top 15 in points per game (34.9) and per play (0.5) behind former Arizona and USF QB Jordan McCloud, one of four players in the country with at least 3,400 passing yards and 300 rushing yards. His 40 total touchdowns helped earn him Sun Belt Player of the Year honors, and he was one of 20 semifinalists for the Davey O'Brien Award.
It's hard to properly contextualize those stats for James Madison, which isn't your typical 11-1 team entering Saturday.
For one, the Dukes feasted on one of the nation's easiest schedules in the Sun Belt, which has gone 1-4 SU / 0-4-1 ATS in bowl season with some truly wretched performances thus far. Even so, four of JMU's 12 games were decided by three or fewer points, including its 26-23 loss to Appalachian State in Week 12.
James Madison also enters this game with a patchwork coaching staff after Curt Cignetti and all but four of his assistants - including both coordinators - left for Indiana. Offensive line coach Damian Wroblewski, who will serve as interim head coach and offensive play-caller, had to hire five temporary replacements just to field a functional staff for Saturday.
Several of the Dukes' best players, including McCloud, have entered the transfer portal but are still expected to suit up for the bowl game. If they do, they'll be led by a majority coaching staff that they've never met and likely won't play for again, and I wouldn't be surprised if Wroblewski and Co. use Saturday's game as a chance to scout those expected to stick around next season.
I can't think of a worse time to lose virtually your entire coaching staff than a few weeks before facing the most vaunted triple-option scheme in the country. Air Force also quietly ranks sixth in total defense (277.2 YPG) with top-15 marks in scoring defense (17.9 PPG) and yards allowed per play (4.85), a tall task to prepare for on short notice.
The Falcons are also expecting the return of starting QB Zac Larrier, who led the team to an 8-0 start before a knee injury contributed to the team's 0-4 finish. Assuming the senior dresses on Saturday, he could be vital to attacking James Madison's 127th-ranked pass defense (278.1 YPG).
Air Force has won four consecutive bowl games (4-0 ATS) with an 8-4 ATS bowl record under Troy Calhoun, who led this team to a 30-15 win over Baylor in last year's Armed Forces Bowl. His group is especially suited for Saturday's game, which is expected to feature rain and up to 15 mph winds.
This is one of my favorite sides of bowl season, and the market movement strongly agrees with this point. There's still value at this price, and the moneyline (+105 via FanDuel) is worth a play, too, at the best college football betting sites, in arguably the biggest coaching mismatch of the college football postseason.
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James Madison vs. Air Force best odds
FanDuel (-114)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force +1.5 | Air Force +2.5 | Air Force +1.5 | Air Force +1 | Air Force +1.5 |
| -110 | -114 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
After opening as a touchdown underdog, Air Force is catching under a field goal at all of our best sports betting sites, though the value of your wager varies greatly across the market.
We're targeting the rogue +2.5 at FanDuel, which is often a favorable outlier when shopping around. It's worth checking our best sportsbook promos to get the most out of this bet at FanDuel or elsewhere.
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James Madison vs. Air Force odds
James Madison vs. Air Force odds analysis
James Madison opened this game as a 7-point favorite across our best sports betting apps, which came before the Dukes saw virtually all of their coaching staff leave and many of their key skill players hit the transfer portal.
Those moves also attracted the attention of Under bettors, who bet this total down from an opening 45.5 to as low as 40.5 at most of our best sportsbooks, though you can still bet Under 41.5 at FanDuel at -120 odds.
Armed Forces Bowl game info
- When: Saturday, Dec. 23 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
- How to watch: ABC
- Weather: 66 degrees, 11-mph winds, 75% chance of precipitation
James Madison-Air Force prediction made Thursday at 2:15 a.m. ET.
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