Indiana vs. Penn State Prediction: Today's College Football Week 11 Betting Preview & Odds

No. 2 Indiana puts its unblemished record on the line today when it visits Penn State in a Big Ten showdown at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pa. My best Indiana vs. Penn State prediction looks at whether Indiana can take care of business as a 14.5-point betting favorite, leaning heavily on its impressive rush defense. Kickoff is set for noon ET (FOX).

Penn State may have dropped five straight, but four of those were one score games. My college football Week 11 predictions don't expect the upset, but investigate if they can keep this one closer than expected.

✅ Indiana vs. Penn State prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11.

📊 Indiana vs. Penn State odds

See live college football odds for every game in Week 11.

🏈 Indiana vs. Penn State preview & score prediction

Penn State has lost five consecutive games, but last week was the first time the Nittany Lions lost by more than six points. While Penn State trailing just 17-14 against Ohio State at halftime may give some bettors confidence in them Saturday, I don’t see how they cover 14.5 against Indiana.

Indiana leads the nation in scoring, averaging 46.4 points per game, while the defense is allowing just 10.8 points per contest. Additionally, the Hoosiers already have wins at Iowa and at Oregon, so they won’t be overwhelmed by the Penn State crowd.

Indiana’s run defense sets the tone

Without Drew Allar, Penn State has no passing attack. Ethan Grunkemeyer has yet to top 145 yards in a game, and he’s got another tough matchup against a defense allowing just 168.3 passing yards per game.

However, it’s Indiana’s rush defense that will dictate the outcome of this game. The unit is allowing just 80.0 yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry. Indiana will totally neutralize an offense dependent on the run (155.3 yards per game).

Caesars’ price indicates a 52.38% chance that Indiana covers. A $10 bet would profit $9.09.

Score prediction: Indiana 38, Penn State 10

🆚 Indiana vs. Penn State matchup to watch

Kaytron Allen vs. Indiana rush defense

Allen’s rushing yards have accounted for 42% of Penn State’s total offense over the last three weeks. He’s rushed for at least 76 yards in all three games, and he even managed 21 carries last week in a 24-point loss.

While Allen’s performances have been impressive, he faces his toughest matchup of the season on Saturday. Indiana is allowing just 80 rush yards per game, and with Penn State huge underdogs, I don’t see how Allen gets enough carries to overcome a defense allowing just 3.1 yards per carry.

Allen is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, but last week, he set a season low with 3.6 yards per attempt. To make matters worse, Allen opened last week’s game with a 26-yard run, then only managed 50 yards on his next 20 carries.

FanDuel’s price implies a 53.27% chance that Allen hits this Under. A $10 bet would profit $8.77.

Best prop bet: Kaytron Allen Under 68.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

📈 Indiana vs. Penn State betting trends

🌤️ Indiana vs. Penn State weather

The weather should be great on Saturday, with temperatures expected in the mid-to-high 50s. While rain isn’t expected, wind gusts could reach up to 21 mph, which may impact some throws for both teams.

📺 How to watch Indiana vs. Penn State

• Date: Saturday, Nov. 8
• Kickoff: Noon ET
• Location: Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pa.)
• TV: FOX