Indiana vs. Ohio State Prediction & Opening Odds for Big Ten Championship

In the only conference championship game on Saturday that isn't a regular-season rematch, my Indiana vs. Ohio State prediction expects the top two defenses in the country to shine in what should be a low-scoring Big Ten Championship.

No. 1 Ohio State is a 5.5-point betting favorite against No. 2 Indiana for Saturday's Big Ten Championship at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis (8 p.m. ET, FOX). And while the top two Heisman favorites are taking the field in this massive matchup, my early picks and college football conference championship predictions have the battle for the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff turning into a defensive slugfest. 

Early Indiana vs. Ohio State prediction & betting preview

Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football picks for every conference championship.

Under 48.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Don't let the narrative that this game could decide the Heisman Trophy distract you from the fact that these are the two best defenses in the country. Whichever QB survives four quarters in Indianapolis and comes out a winner will potentially win the Heisman, but these two defenses are so dominant that both Fernando Mendoza and Julian Sayin could turn in their worst performances of the season. 

Ohio State has a historically dominant defense under Matt Patricia, with first-round talents like Caleb Downs, Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, and Kayden McDonald helping the Buckeyes hold opponents to just. 7.8 PPG, best in the country. This defense is ranked No. 1 by SP+ and allows the fewest yards per game in college football (203.0).

Meanwhile, Indiana's defense isn't far behind. The Hoosiers are No. 2 in defensive SP+, No. 2 in points allowed per game (10.9), and No. 4 in yards allowed per game (251.8). Indiana has given up more than 20 points just once this season, and it was to an Oregon team that's ranked No. 4 overall by SP+.

So despite Mendoza and Sayin being arguably the top two QBs in the country, these are by far the best defenses they've faced. And in games Indiana has played against teams ranked top 40 in defensive SP+, the Under is 3-0-1. If the Under cashes again (52.38% probability), a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.

Live Indiana vs. Ohio State odds: Big Ten Championship

See the latest college football odds for every conference championship game.

Indiana vs. Ohio State opening odds

• Moneyline: Indiana +185 | Ohio State -225
• Spread: Indiana +6 (-115) | Ohio State -6 (-105)
• Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-110) | Under 49.5 (-110)

Indiana vs. Ohio State line movement

Unsurprisingly, the line has seen minimal movement at our best college football betting sites. Ohio State is a 5.5 to 6.5-point betting favorite as the No. 1-ranked team in college football, with 57% of early bettors taking the Buckeyes to cover. Given the blue blood weight that Ohio State carries and the fact that Ryan Day's program won it all last year, I'd expect the public to continue to back the Buckeyes.

So, if you're planning to take Indiana, it could be worth waiting - I'd bet the Buckeyes at -6.5, but I wouldn't want to take Ohio State if it's favored by more than a touchdown.

As for the game total, it's already dropped a full point from 49.5 to 48.5, and with both of these teams having elite defenses, I could see it getting down to 47.5 by Saturday. Even if it drops that low, I'd still be willing to take the Under. But if it gets lower than 47.5, I'd stay away.

Indiana vs. Ohio State trends & betting notes

• Ohio State has the best ATS record in the country at 10-1-1
• Indiana is 7-5 ATS, but has failed to cover in two of its last three games
• The Hoosiers are 7-4-1 betting the Over, but 1-3-1 when they fail to cover the spread
• The Buckeyes are 8-4 betting the Under, including 3-0 betting the Under against ranked opponents

How to watch Indiana vs. Ohio State 

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
• Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
• TV: FOX

Early conference championship predictions

• Early Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State prediction: Conference USA Championship
• Early Troy vs. James Madison prediction: Sun Belt Championship
• Early North Texas vs. Tulane prediction: American Conference Championship
• Early UNLV vs. Boise State prediction: Mountain West Championship
• Early BYU vs. Texas Tech prediction: Big 12 Championship
• Early Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan prediction: MAC Championship
• Early Duke vs. Virginia prediction: ACC Championship
• Early Georgia vs. Alabama prediction: SEC Championship
• Early Indiana vs. Ohio State prediction: Big Ten Championship