Illinois vs. Michigan Picks, Predictions College Football Week 12: Will Wolverines Avoid Trap?
Ahead of next week's marquee showdown with Ohio State, the Michigan Wolverines play host the Illinois Fighting Illini in Week 12. We're breaking down the betting angles with our Illinois-Michigan college football picks.
Illinois (7-3, 4-3) controlled the Big Ten West division race, but after back-to-back home losses against Michigan State and Purdue, the Fighting Illini are in a four-way logjam for first place. Meanwhile, Michigan (10-0, 7-0) is one of two non-SEC teams with at least a 60% chance of making the College Football Playoff, per ESPN.
The Wolverines covered last week as -29 point favorites against Nebraska, the Cornhuskers' second-biggest spread as underdogs since the FBS/FCS split.
Here are our top college football Week 12 Illinois vs. Michigan picks (odds via PointsBet, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 12.
Illinois vs. Michigan Game Info
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 19, noon ET
- TV: ABC
- Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
- Weather: 27 degrees, 5% chance of precipitation, 14-mph SW wind
Illinois vs. Michigan Odds
Illinois vs. Michigan Odds Analysis
Michigan opened as a consensus 17-point favorite but is laying 17.5 points as of Friday afternoon. Not unexpectedly, the Wolverines have drawn 67% of the tickets and 65% of the handle on spread bets.
The Over/Under has come down from the opening line of 44 to 42 as of Friday afternoon. However, it's the Over that has drawn 67% of the tickets and 74% of the handle.
Illinois vs. Michigan Picks
Illinois vs. Michigan ATS Pick
Illinois +18 (-110) ★
This is one of the more contrarian plays of the weekend, as most bettors jumped off the Illini bandwagon after two home favorite losses of at least six points. Michigan is 10-0 for the first time since 2006, and a potential top-three showdown with fellow undefeated Ohio State looms next week. While the Wolverines likely look ahead to that possible CFP elimination game, we're backing the underdogs in a tricky scheduling spot for Michigan.
Illinois head coach Bret Bielema's bunch can muck it up with the best of them, which the Fighting Illini need to do to hang with Michigan. This spread is subject to change if college football's leading rusher, Chase Brown, is ruled out. Brown left in the final minute of last week's loss to Purdue with a right leg injury, but Bielema hinted that Brown is trending in the right direction. We're only giving the Illini a one-star play in case Brown, who amassed 1,442 yards and is Illinois' second on the all-time rushing list with 3,000, can't play.
Illinois vs. Michigan O/U Pick
Under 43 (-110) ★★★★
Illinois is a surprise AP top 25 team entering Week 12 that's been buoyed by a rock-solid defense all year. The Fighting Illini ranked an NCAAF top six last week in Defensive Line Yards, Rush Success, Havoc, and Finishing Drives. In comparison, Illinois' offense averaged 20.0 PPG after averaging 29.4 through its first five games.
Head to Caesars to make this bet, as it's one of the few sportsbooks offering more value for Under backers instead of the 42.5-point total that many of its competitors are currently trading at.
Illinois vs. Michigan Prop Pick
Michigan team total Under 30.5 (-125) ★★★★★
Michigan ranks 20th in Offensive SP+, the lowest of any team in the top six overall. In addition, the Under is 2-7-1 in Wolverines games this year, the highest Under percentage in the conference. Illinois may not sustain drives if Brown is ruled out, but expect Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh to take the air out of the ball if they have a comfortable lead, especially in frigid temperatures.
The Under is 8-3 in Michigan's last 11 matchups and cashed in 12 of its previous 16 at home. While its stout defense (No. 3 in Defensive SP+) is mainly responsible, expect the Wolverines' scoring to decrease this week, especially since they don't want to give Ohio State much to scout them with in Week 13's showdown.
Where to Bet on Illinois vs. Michigan Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Illinois-Michigan picks made 11/16/2022 at 5:57 a.m. ET
Related Articles
