For the first time ever under head coach Marcus Arroyo, the UNLV Rebels will go off as a betting favorite Saturday against Idaho State. Read on for our Idaho State-UNLV picks.

Idaho State begins a new era under head coach Charlie Ragle. For the past decade, Ragle has been an assistant within the Pac-12 Conference. He will be tasked with trying to turn around a Bengals program that has only had three winning seasons since winning the Big Sky Conference in 2002.

Like their Week 0 opponent, UNLV also sustained double-digit losses last season. This marks the Rebels’ third year with Marcus Arroyo leading the program. UNLV has gone just 2-16 in the first two seasons under Arroyo. 

Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 0 matchup between Idaho State and UNLV (odds via Barstool Sportsbook, Tipico; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale)

Idaho State vs. UNLV Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Aug. 27, 1:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBSSN
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Weather: 96℉, 0% chance of precipitation, 6-mph winds (blowing south-southwest)

Note: Weather will only impact conditions if the Allegiant Stadium roof is open for the game.

Idaho State vs. UNLV Odds Analysis

So far, the college football betting market has moved the point spread for this game in favor of the underdog. UNLV first opened up as a 21.5-point favorite for this Week 0 matchup. Consensus odds have since moved one full point so that the Rebels are now laying 20.5.

The total has also seen an adjustment relative to opening odds, albeit a small one. Bookmakers initially posted the Over/Under at 51.5. The market has since bet the total up a half-point to a consensus line of 52 at the time of writing.

Idaho State vs. UNLV Picks

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Idaho State vs. UNLV Predictions

UNLV -20.5 (-108)

No doubt, many bettors will be reluctant to lay 20+ points with UNLV this week. After all, the Rebels have not been to a bowl game since 2013. UNLV still has a ways to go to improve its football program.

All of that being said, positive strides are expected for the Rebels in Arroyo’s third year in charge. The official word is that UNLV has not yet decided on a starting quarterback for Saturday’s game. However, Tennessee transfer and redshirt freshman Harrison Bailey is fully expected to secure the starting spot over the returning Cameron Friel. Stability at the position will be key to UNLV maximizing its offensive potential.

The Rebels will be tasked with overcoming the loss of running back Charles Williams, but they do have six starters returning on offense. Solid offensive line play to go along with 69 career starts worth of experience suggests that UNLV will have a healthy advantage in the trenches. Nine of the top 11 tacklers are back on defense as well.

The outlook is ugly for Idaho State. A full-scale culture reset is needed in Pocatello on the heels of three very poor seasons. 

The Bengals did add Oregon State transfer, Damir Collins, to the backfield, but it will take more than one player to save ISU in 2022. 

Over 51.5 (-113)

The Bengals allowed 31 points or more defensively in seven of their 10 losses last year. ISU offered virtually no resistance to Nevada and BYU, their two FBS opponents. They surrendered 49 points to the former and 59 to the latter. In both cases, the opposition virtually accounted for all of the current game total on their own.

Last season, UNLV only averaged 20.8 points per game offensively. However, they fared much better against lesser competition. No disrespect to Idaho State’s Big Sky Conference brethren Eastern Washington, but the Eagles are technically an FCS program. UNLV scored 33 against them in last year’s season opener. 

Considering the gap that exists between Eastern Washington and Idaho State, one has to like UNLV’s chances of scoring plenty again on Saturday. UNLV will likely amass most of this betting total independently.

UNLV Team Total: Over 35.5 (-108)

In addition to our total pick, it’s also worth considering a play on the UNLV team total. Yes, it’s true that the Rebels have not exceeded 35.5 points since the penultimate game of the 2019 season. But Idaho State represents by far the weakest opponent that the Rebels have faced under Arroyo. With six starters back on both sides of the ball, UNLV is generally expected to make progress in 2022. 

An opening matchup against a lowly FCS opponent could wind up being a major statement game for the Rebels football program. Given the lack of recent success, UNLV could very well keep its foot on the gas pedal even after things get out of hand on Saturday.

Where to Bet on Idaho State vs. UNLV Picks 

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Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

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Idaho State-UNLV picks made 8/25/2022 at 7:28 p.m. ET