Houston vs. UCF Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 11 Betting Preview
My best Houston vs. UCF prediction for Friday’s 8 p.m. ET (FS1) matchup at Acrisure Bounce House in Orlando, Fla., focuses on UCF’s defensive struggles against good offenses. Houston is a 1-point betting favorite, although some sportsbooks are listing this game as a pick 'em.
After losing four of its last five, this is an absolute must-win for UCF, which still needs two victories for bowl eligibility. My college football predictions for Week 11 examine whether running back Myles Montgomery and his teammates can get it done against Houston's defense.
✅ Houston vs. UCF prediction & expert picks
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💵 Best Houston vs. UCF bets
📊 Houston vs. UCF odds
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🏈 Houston vs. UCF preview & score prediction
UCF scored just three points last week. It marked the second time in two weeks that UCF scored 11 or fewer points, but it was just the second time they failed to score at least 20 with quarterback Tayven Jackson under center.
Though Jackson has thrown for 151 yards or fewer in three of his last four games, UCF is still averaging 29.5 points per game with him at quarterback, and a few weeks ago, the Knights put up 45 on the same West Virginia team that beat Houston last week.
UCF can’t slow down Houston
UCF is averaging 191.4 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry, but won’t control time of possession against a rush defense that allows just 134.3 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per attempt.
Though UCF is allowing just 18.8 points per game, the Knights have allowed at least 27 in three of their five Big 12 games. Conner Weigman and Houston are averaging 29.4 points per game, and they’ve scored at least 31 in three of four.
BetMGM’s price of -105 implies a 51.22% chance this Over hits. A $10 bet would profit $9.52.
Score prediction: Houston 31, UCF 27
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🆚 Houston vs. UCF matchup to watch
Myles Montgomery vs. Houston rush defense
Montgomery leads UCF with 572 rushing yards, as he’s averaging 5.1 yards per carry. While he has three games with at least 79 yards, including two where he topped 100, he’s rushed for 56 yards or fewer in two of his last three.
He has now averaged 4.4 yards per attempt or less in five of his eight games this season. In fact, a 10-carry, 119-yard game against Kansas State is greatly skewing Montgomery’s average yards per carry this season.
Houston’s rush defense has been very good. Though the unit gave up 246 rushing yards last week, they’d held three consecutive opponents to 112 yards or fewer before that game. During that three-game span, only one running back topped 50 yards against them, as Arizona State’s Raleek Brown managed 64.
Caesars’ price implies a 53.27% chance that Montgomery rushes for fewer than 64.5 yards. A $10 bet would profit $8.77.
Best prop bet: Myles Montgomery Under 64.5 rushing yards (-114 via Caesars)
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📈 Houston vs. UCF betting trends
| Houston | Statistic | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | W-L record | 4-4 |
| 6-3 | ATS record | 4-4 |
| 6-3 | O/U record | 3-5 |
| 5.61 | Yards per play | 6.10 |
| 5.05 | Yards allowed per play | 4.73 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | +1 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 1-4 |
| L, 45-35 vs. West Virginia | Previous result | L, 30-3 vs. Baylor |
🌤️ Houston vs. UCF weather
Friday night’s weather in Orlando shouldn’t impact this game at all. The low for the evening is 64 degrees, with winds of just 5 mph, and only a 25% chance of precipitation.
📺 How to watch Houston vs. UCF
- Date: Friday, Nov. 7
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: FBC Mortgage Stadium (Orlando, Fla.)
- TV: FS1
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