Heisman Trophy Power Rankings Week 11: Best College Football Prop Bets for Heisman Contenders

With less than a month left in the season, there are just four players with Heisman Trophy odds shorter than +3000, and those four lead our Heisman Trophy power rankings heading into Week 11.

While Texas A&M's Marcel Reed is taking on a ranked Missouri team and could potentially crack the top three, it seems unlikely, which is why our college football Week 11 predictions and Heisman contender player props focus on the three obvious leaders in this year's Heisman race.

🏆 Heisman Trophy power rankings & odds

Our Heisman Trophy power rankings are based on a combination of performance and Heisman Trophy odds to rank our top 12 Heisman contenders this season.

💰 Heisman player props & best bets for Saturday

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11 based on the latest college football odds.

🔴 Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana: Over 1.5 passing TDs (-130)

Though Fernando Mendoza led the Heisman Trophy odds for much of the season, he's now slipped to No. 2 on the oddsboard behind Ohio State's Julian Sayin. The reason? Sayin lit up an underachieving Penn State team to the tune of four touchdown passes in Week 10. Luckily for Mendoza Heisman bettors, he gets to take on that same Nittany Lions team this week.

With Penn State's season falling apart amid a five-game losing streak, Mendoza is poised to embarrass the Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. Curt Cignetti's team has routinely routed its non-ranked opponents, outscoring teams like Illinois, Michigan State, UCLA, and Maryland by an average of 43.7 points. So expect Mendoza to continue padding his stats and his Heisman hopes against Penn State.

The Nittany Lions rank outside the top 50 in EPA per pass on defense, and Mendoza is No. 3 in the country in QBR (90.0) and No. 10 in adjusted completion rate (79.5%). He has a plethora of weapons around him, one of which I'm backing to score in my college football anytime touchdown scorer predictions, and should be able to throw two-plus TDs for the seventh time in his last nine games.

Our Indiana vs. Penn State prediction expects the Hoosiers to win with ease, and to do that Mendoza will need to shine, so play this player prop at BetMGM, where a $10 winning bet pays a $7.69 profit.

🌰 Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State: Over 293.5 passing yards (-114)

It's been a meteoric rise to the top of the Heisman Trophy odds for Ohio State's Julian Sayin. The second-year QB went from throwing for just 126 yards in the Buckeyes' season-opening win against Texas to throwing for eight touchdowns and completing over 85% of his passes in his last two games. It doesn't hurt that he has the best wide receiver duo in the country to throw to, either.

With Jeremiah Smith among the top non-QBs on my Heisman Trophy power rankings and Carnell Tate playing like a potential top-20 pick, Purdue doesn't stand a chance. The Boilermakers are ranked No. 116 in EPA per pass on defense while allowing the third-most passing yards per game in the Big Ten (234.4). And they haven't played a QB as efficient as Sayin yet - he leads the country in QBR (90.9) and adjusted completion rate (86.1%).

Throwing to a pair of unstoppable receivers has helped Ryan Day's young QB throw for over 300 yards in three of his last four games while averaging 294.6 passing yards per game over his last seven outings. That's why this is a must-play Heisman player prop, with a $10 bet at FanDuel paying an $8.77 profit.

🐘 Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama: Over 2.5 TD passes (+186)

There's a lot of buzz around LSU following the firing of Brian Kelly, especially with Nick Saban now being one of the favorites by the LSU next coach odds. Those distractions will only hurt an underachieving Tigers team that takes on an Alabama program coming off a bye and trending toward a top-four seed in the College Football Playoff, thanks to star QB Ty Simpson.

Simpson's been so hot that his line on TD passes at our best college football betting sites is set at 1.5 but with odds as short as -210. That implies a 67.74% probability he'll throw at least two TDs against LSU. However, those odds don't pay well, and rightfully so, since he's thrown at least two TDs in every single game this season. Instead, I'm playing the alt-line at DraftKings for a three-score day.

These odds pay a $18.60 profit on a $10 winning bet if Simpson throws three or more TDs for the fourth time in nine games - this pairs well with my college football player props for Week 11, where I have Alabama's Germie Bernard as my TD pick. And while LSU's defense had been stout earlier in the season, it's fallen apart as of late, allowing a combined 80 points in its last two games.

Those losses came to fellow Heisman-contending QBs, Reed and Diego Pavia, who both accounted for at least three total TDs when they beat LSU.