Heisman Trophy Odds 2025: Dante Moore Leads as Simpson, Beck Close Gap After Week 6

In a Week 6 of college football that featured several major upset losses, Heisman Trophy odds favorite Dante Moore was unscathed with Oregon on a bye week. 

While the Ducks' star quarterback saw his Heisman Trophy odds lead grow, he also watched as his most significant competition - Miami's Carson Beck and Alabama's Ty Simpson - pulled off statement wins.

As it becomes increasingly clear the three QBs are in the driver's seat to win the Heisman, who's the best bet to back with your college football picks?

📊 Live Heisman Trophy odds 2025

Latest Heisman Trophy odds; see the best college football odds in real time.

🚨 Heisman Trophy odds movement after Week 6

• Despite being on a bye in Week 6, Oregon's Dante Moore saw his Heisman Trophy odds shorten from +750 to +600, further tightening his grip on the lead
• Both Alabama's Ty Simpson (+1000 to +800) and Miami's Carson Beck (+1100 to +800) remain just behind Moore after leading their teams to significant Week 6 victories
• Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith remains behind the trio of QBs after his odds (+1000) didn't experience any movement following a two-touchdown performance against Minnesota
• Smith's QB, Ohio State's Julian Sayin, was among the biggest risers (+2000 to +1500) thanks to his best statistical performance of the year against the Golden Gophers
• Oklahoma's John Mateer missed Week 6 while recovering from thumb surgery, but the former Heisman Trophy odds favorite has seen his odds rebound from +10000 to +4000
• Some of the biggest Heisman sliders after Week 6 are Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia (+2000 to +3500), LSU's Garrett Nussmeier (+3500 to +5500), Texas' Arch Manning (+5000 to +12500), and Penn State's Drew Allar (+6500 to +25000)

🏁 Ty Simpson and Carson Beck racing up the Heisman oddsboard

🐘 Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama (+800)

• Key stats: 82.2 QBR, 6% big-time throw rate, 80.1% adjusted completion percentage
• Projected stats (over 12 games): 3,547 passing yards, 31 TD passes, 2 interceptions, 5 rushing TDs
• When to bet: Now ... but with Alabama's schedule, you could wait until a loss (they face four ranked opponents still)

Simpson looked like a young QB making his first start when Alabama dropped its season opener to Florida State. His sporadic play initially turned him into an afterthought in the Heisman Trophy race. However, anyone who watched his tape against Wisconsin knew this was coming. But did any of us expect him to be this good?

Simpson has beaten two ranked opponents in the four games since that loss to Florida State while throwing for 11 touchdowns, putting up a 7.8% big-time throw rate, and accounting for only three turnover-worthy plays. He came out hot against Georgia in Week 5, and Simpson stayed out during the win against Vanderbilt in Week 6 while making numerous NFL-level throws.

As I said last week, the signal-caller is the only player I'd feel confident backing in the Heisman race outside of Moore. And with his odds still being +800 at DraftKings, it's not a bad time to bet him with a $10 winning bet paying an $80 profit. However, Alabama faces four ranked opponents still (Missouri, Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma), and two tough road games remain on its schedule (South Carolina, Auburn).

There's a real chance Alabama loses at least one of those games, and Simpson's odds lengthen to the +1000 range again. But waiting means playing with fire given the level he's been at lately, and since it's not an overly strong Heisman race.

It's also worth considering betting on Simpson to be the No. 1 pick in April. His 2026 NFL Draft odds are still +3000 through BetMGM, and Moore has lost a lot of value in that market since his odds shortened from +2500 to +550 last week.

🌴 Carson Beck, QB, Miami (+800)

• Key stats: 84.4 QBR, 1.3% turnover-worthy play rate, 79.3% adjusted completion percentage
• Projected stats (over 12 games): 2,911 passing yards, 26 TD passes, 7 interceptions, 2 rushing TDs
• When to bet: Never

This season couldn't have gotten off to a better start for Beck, who looks like the QB we saw two years ago at Georgia that generated first-round pick buzz. The senior has been thriving in Shannon Dawson's offense while making Miami into a serious college football national championship odds contender.

The Hurricanes might be the best team to bet on outside of the Big Ten thanks to Beck, freshman phenom Malachi Toney, and dominant trench play on both sides of the ball. But just because the U might be back doesn't mean Beck is a good Heisman bet. He's actually an especially bad Heisman bet with his best price being +800 at BetRivers.

Beck may be playing himself back into top 50 consideration for the NFL draft while making Mario Cristobal's program look like an obvious College Football Playoff choice. But his numbers just aren't there to win the Heisman. His predecessor, Cam Ward, also threw for 13 more touchdowns and over 1,000 more yards than Beck is on pace for this season. Ward finished fourth in Heisman voting.

Numbers matter to voters, and Beck's counting stats are good, but not Heisman-worthy. And the advanced stats say the same thing, as he's posting a 4.1% big-time throw rate thus far.

In the last 10 years, seven QBs have won the Heisman, and all but one put up a big-time throw rate of at least 6%. The was Lamar Jackson, who ran over 1,500 yards and 21 touchdowns to go with over 3,500 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. Beck will be nowhere near those numbers. He's on pace for 43 rushing yards.

Beck is efficient, but he's not electric. He's a great QB for a potential CFP team and could even hear his name called on Day 1 of the draft in April. But he won't be the one hearing his name called at the Heisman ceremony in December.

🏆 Dante Moore remains the Heisman favorite

🦆 Dante Moore, QB, Oregon (+600)

• Key stats: 79.8 QBR, 7% big-time throw rate, 1.3% turnover-worthy play rate, 81.7% adjusted completion percentage
• Projected stats (over 12 games): 2,904 passing yards, 34 TD passes, 2 interceptions
• When to bet: Either now, or after the Ducks play Indiana on Oct. 11

The Heisman race is Moore vs. Simpson through six weeks. And it will remain that way for the foreseeable future, unless Ohio State turns Julian Sayin loose in a meaningful game. No passer is playing quarterback at a higher level than those two this season, and that's why you'll start seeing their names far more frequently atop NFL mock drafts going forward.

Moore is the obvious choice to win the Heisman right now because he checks every box. He boasts the numbers, and the passer is efficient and aggressive while making "Heisman moment" type plays out of structure. The Ducks are looking like the best bet to win it all. I've been banging the table for Moore since Oregon beat Oklahoma State 69-3 on Sept. 6. But back then Moore was priced around +2500. Now he's at +600.

There's no harm in betting on him now, with a $10 bet bringing in a $60 profit, especially with how weak the Heisman race looks overall. But with a top-10 opponent in Indiana featuring another Heisman-contending QB (Fernando Mendoza) on the horizon, it's not the worst idea to wait. While I don't think the Ducks will lose that game, it's against the best defense Moore is going to see this year (No. 6 in SP+).

Could a sluggish game from the 20-year-old against a playoff contender help lengthen these odds back to the +800 range the price was at a week ago? The risk is that if he thrives against the Hoosiers, Moore's odds will probably be closer to +400 the next day. And then the Ducks are playing six unranked teams to close out the season.

👀 Week 6 Heisman stock report

📈 Stock up

• Julian Sayin, Ohio State (+1500): The Buckeyes' first-year starter produced the highest QBR of Week 6 (97.4), ranks top 10 in TD passes (13), and he's No. 1 in adjusted completion percentage (86.7%) ... he's the best bet after Moore and Simpson
• Gunner Stockton, Georgia (+3000): Though he didn't light up Kentucky, Stockton finished with the seventh-highest QBR of the week (92.8), and his mobility is his X-factor
• Josh Hoover, TCU (+8000): Hoover continues to be one of the most slept on QBs in the country, and he now sits No. 4 nationwide in TD passes (15) after tossing four against Colorado
• Darian Mensah, Duke (+25000): Mensah's transfer to Duke is going well, with the sophomore ranking top five in the country in passing yards (1,838) and TD passes (15), and he put up one of the top QBRs of the week against California (86.6)
• Blake Horvath, Navy (+30000): The Midshipmen's triggerman just put up an all-time passing performance for a triple-option QB in the win over Air Force (339 passing yards), and he's second among all QBs in rushing yards this season (485)
• Nico Iamaleava, UCLA (+30000): Before Iamaleava transferred from Tennessee, he had +1100 Heisman Trophy odds, and his addition to the Bruins finally paid off after UCLA upset Penn State behind Nico's play and Jerry Neuheisel's play calling
• Colton Joseph, Old Dominion (OFF): The best QB in the country nobody's talking about isn't even on the oddsboard, but Joseph leads the country in big-time throw rate (9.2%) and had the fifth-highest QBR of the week in the Monarchs' win over Coastal Carolina (94.8)

📉 Stock down

• Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (+3500): It's hard to blame Pavia for not taking down Alabama for a second straight year, but he finished with just a 53.9 QBR and couldn't get anything going downfield in the passing game
• Arch Manning, Texas (+12500): This just isn't going to be Texas's year, and it's because Manning clearly isn't an elite QB after another dud performance in the loss to Florida (four turnover-worthy plays)
• Drew Allar, Penn State (+25000): Allar has always been better in theory than in practice, but with the Nittany Lions playing so poorly that James Franklin's job security is in question, there's no point in talking about the team's QB1 as even a Heisman long shot

❓ Heisman Trophy FAQs

Who is the Heisman Trophy favorite?

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore is the Heisman Trophy odds favorite with his odds shortening from +750 to +600 following Week 6. His odds (+600) imply a 14.29% probability he will win the award.

What are Arch Manning's Heisman Trophy odds?

After opening with Heisman odds of +950 and seeing them shorten to no longer than +700, Arch Manning's Heisman Trophy odds lengthened to +1800 following Week 1. They then shortened to +1600, following Week 2, but plummeted to between +3000 and +4000 after Week 3.

Manning's Heisman Trophy odds are now +12500 following Week 6, implying a 0.79% probability he'll win the award.

When will the Heisman Trophy be decided?

The 2025 Heisman Trophy ceremony will be Saturday, Dec. 13, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.