Heisman Trophy Odds 2025: Betting Takeaways as Moore, Simpson Surge in Week 5

In one of the best weeks of college football in recent memory, the Heisman Trophy odds have a new favorite coming out of Week 5 after a less flashy showing from Indiana's Fernando Mendoza against Iowa on Saturday.

Oregon first-year starting QB Dante Moore now sits alone atop the Heisman Trophy odds after leading the Ducks to a double overtime victory on the road against Penn State. Moore overtakes Mendoza, who still has the fourth-shortest odds, after the Indiana triggerman took the top spot from Oklahoma's John Mateer following news that he needed thumb surgery earlier in the week.

With Moore sitting as the sixth new favorite since late August, is he the best Heisman contender to bet with your college football picks following Week 5?

 📊 Live Heisman Trophy odds 2025

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🏆 New Heisman Trophy odds favorite after Week 5

🦆 Dante Moore, QB, Oregon (+750)

• Key stats: 83.0 QBR, 7% big-time throw rate, 81.7% adjusted completion rate
• Projected stats (over 12 games): 2,904 passing yards, 34 touchdown passes, 2 interceptions
• Toughest opponents remaining: vs. Indiana (Oct. 11), at Iowa (Nov. 8), vs. USC (Nov. 22), at Washington (Nov. 29)

For a few weeks, I've been banging the table for Moore to win the Heisman, ever since Oregon's 69-3 win over Oklahoma State in which he looked like a future first-round pick. (Related note: you can still get Moore at +2500 by the 2026 NFL Draft odds to be the No. 1 pick in April.)

Back then, the former five-star recruit was priced around +2000. Now a $10 winning bet on him pays just a $75 profit after he took down Penn State in a white out game. There were numerous plays from Moore in that win over the Nittany Lions that could be labeled as "Heisman moments," from his ridiculous poise late in the game to his consistent ability to avoid pressure and make a play out of structure.

In the end, Moore finished with three touchdown passes, three big-time throws, an 85.7% adjusted completion rate, and an 80.7 QBR on the road against a defense thas was ranked top five in SP+.

Moore remains my favorite Heisman bet, but with his odds so much shorter now, is it really the best time to back him?

⏰ When is the best time to bet Moore?

Unlike some of the other top Heisman-contending QBs, Moore has already played his toughest game of the year ... at least on paper. With two months still left in the season, I think it's worth waiting to bet Moore to win the Heisman now that his odds have dipped below +1000.

We've already seen several QBs fall from the top spot on the oddsboard, where they were once listed shorter than +1000. Those quarterbacks include Mendoza, Mateer, Beck, Nussmeier, and Arch Manning.

So while the Ducks look poised to be one of the college football national championship odds favorites all season with shorter than +1000, I think we could see Moore's Heisman odds lengthen.

This Heisman race is still wide-open, and a huge week from any of the brand-name QBs or a lesser performance from Moore in one of his remaining big games (like against Indiana) could lengthen these odds.

It's not as if he's putting video game numbers up, so hold off on betting him for now, even if, like me, you think he'll be hoisting the Heisman - something Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel couldn't do for the Ducks.

🎯 Best Heisman bet beyond Dante Moore

🐘 Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama (+1000)

• Key stats: 84.2 QBR, 78% adjusted completion rate, 1.3% turnover-worthy play rate
• Projected stats (over 12 games): 3,414 passing yards, 39 total touchdowns, 0 interceptions
• Toughest opponents remaining: vs. Vanderbilt (Oct. 4), at Missouri (Oct. 11), vs. Tennessee (Oct. 18), at South Carolina (Oct. 25), vs. LSU (Nov. 8), vs. Oklahoma (Nov. 15), at Auburn (Nov. 29)

The secret is out: the Crimson Tide have one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and Alabama's performance against Florida State was clouding everyone's ability to see it. Simpson, a former blue-chip recruit and son of UT Martin head coach Jason Simpson, is one of the most efficient pocket passers in the country - and Georgia found that out on Saturday night.

I was enamored with Simpson after diving into his tape against Wisconsin from Alabama's Week 3 win, in which Simpson threw four touchdowns, and he became one of my favorite Heisman value plays. That's why I projected the Crimson Tide to win, and my favorite player prop of the week was Simpson throwing Over 1.5 touchdown passes against the Bulldogs.

Now, his Heisman odds have cut from the +2500 range to +1000 - paying a $100 profit on a $10 winning bet - and while that does hurt the value, I think he's the most obvious Heisman candidate outside of Moore. And our best college football betting sites agree.

He just dissected a Georgia team that was ranked top 10 by SP+ and finished with three total touchdowns and one of the 10 highest QBRs of Week 5 (90.1). But unlike Moore, Simpson has a gauntlet to go through, playing six teams that are currently ranked or were ranked in the top 25 at some point.

That can work for or against Simpson, with quality of opponent being an interesting argument in his favor vs. Moore. Still, if you aren't betting on Moore and want to back an SEC player - the conference has claimed four of the last six Heisman winners - I'd suggest waiting to get a clearer picture of the Heisman race. He's bound to throw an interception at some point, and he has to face some nasty defenses in October and November.

👀 Week 5 Heisman stock report

📈 Stock up

• Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss (+1800): While he's only started three games, Chambliss has proven to be among the most dynamic QBs in the country - he's fifth in QBR (87.6) - and the Ferris State transfer just cooked an LSU team that was ranked No. 4.
• Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State (+1900): Though Ohio State seems to be bringing Sayin along slowly, the former five-star leads the country in adjusted completion rate (87.1%) and put up an 88.9 QBR on the road against Washington in Week 5.
• Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt (+2000): The king of Nashville continues to reinvigorate the Commodores, who remain undefeated after a six-touchdown performance from Pavia in Week 5. Vanderbilt will look to upset Alabama this week for the second year in a row.
• CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame (+2500): After a slow start to the season, CJ Carr has been one of the best QBs in the country as of late. He sits No. 2 in QBR (88.4) after torching Arkansas for four touchdowns in Week 5.
• Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame (+4000): Two of Carr's TD passes against the Razorbacks went to Love, who put up four touchdowns in Week 5 to take his season total to eight in just four games. Love has already forced 19 missed tackles this season.

📉 Stock down

• Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (+1400): While he did have some NFL-level throws against Iowa, Mendoza was sporadic at times, and his counting stats didn't help his Heisman case after he registered his lowest QBR of the season (68.5).
• Drew Allar, QB, Penn State (+3500): Had Allar led Penn State to the win, instead of throwing a game-losing interception, his Heisman odds probably would have shortened far too much. However, these odds are still too short given his quality of play ... he's 87th in QBR (48.4).
• Jayden Maiava, QB, USC (+3500): This has less to do with Maiava's play and more with the perception around USC after the Trojans lost to Illinois. Maiava still leads the country in QBR (93.4), and this would actually be a good time to bet him if you believe a star QB on a mid team can win the award.
• Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU (+3500): It's crazy that Nussmeier was ever the favorite, and much of that was likely based on his pro prospects rather than his numbers. After losing to Ole Miss and throwing several head-scratchers, there's no way he's winning the Heisman.
• Tommy Castellanos, QB, Florida State (+8000): The Seminoles' loss to Virginia on Friday night gave way to one of the most iconic field storms in recent memory. It also closed the door on FSU's CFP hopes and Castellanos' Heisman case.

❓ Heisman Trophy FAQs

Who is the Heisman Trophy favorite?

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore is the new Heisman Trophy odds favorite with his odds shortening from +1000 to +750 following Week 5. His odds (+750) imply an 11.76% probability he will win the award.

What are Arch Manning's Heisman Trophy odds?

After opening with Heisman odds of +950 and seeing them shorten to no longer than +700, Arch Manning's Heisman Trophy odds lengthened to +1800 following Week 1. They then shortened to +1600, following Week 2, but plummeted to between +3000 and +4000 after Week 3. Manning's Heisman Trophy odds are +4000 following Week 5, implying a 2.44% probability he'll win the award.

When will the Heisman Trophy be decided?

The 2025 Heisman Trophy ceremony will be Saturday, Dec. 13, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.