Heisman Trophy Odds 2025: Can Arch Manning Rebound After Week 1 Struggles?
What makes college football such a polarizing sport is how much it changes from one week to the next. Last week, Arch Manning's Heisman Trophy odds sat as short as +600 before he'd ever even thrown a pass on the road. Now, after his first start as Texas' QB1, his betting odds to win the Heisman Trophy are as long as +1800 (5.26% implied win probability).
Was it just playing the defending champion Ohio State Buckeyes on the road against a Matt Patricia defense that had months to prepare for Manning and Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian? Or was the Manning hype always overblown and never worth being the focus of so many college football picks?
One week into the season, the Heisman Trophy odds race is as wide open as ever following the disappointing start to the year from the latest edition of football's first family of quarterbacks.
๐ Heisman Trophy odds 2025
The latest Heisman Trophy odds; college football odds update in real time:
๐ Arch Manningโs Heisman odds after Week 1
๐ Arch Manning Heisman Trophy odds (+1800)
The Heisman Trophy odds for Manning were always way too short for a quarterback who had played about two and a half games of FBS football, with 76% of his passes coming last season against UTSA, Mississippi State, and UL Monroe. Those three teams all finished No. 98 or worse in SP+ on defense, while Ohio State entered the season as the preseason No. 3 defense by SP+.
Sure, there was speculation that the Buckeyes defense would drop off from last year's unit that finished No. 1, with the Buckeyes sitting No. 87 in returning defensive production and replacing Jim Knowles with Patricia, but to assume Manning would go into Ohio Stadium and torch the college football championship odds favorite was short-sighted.
Among my favorite player props for Week 1 was the Under on Manning's passing yards (239.5), and the former No. 1 recruit didn't come close to touching that number, going 17-for-30 with 170 yards. Outside of a touchdown pass to Parker Livingstone and a deep ball down the left sideline to Jack Endries, Manning's most productive plays came as a runner.
Manning's Heisman odds have nearly tripled since the 14-7 loss to Ohio State. Peyton and Eli's nephew was sitting at +700 to win the Heisman Trophy at most of our college football betting sites before kickoff against the Buckeyes, implying a 12.5% probability he would do what his uncles never did in college. His odds now imply just a 5.26% probability he will win the award.
๐ฎ Can Manning still win the Heisman?
In short, yes, of course he can still win the award. The buzz was off the charts for a reason just last week, with NFL draftniks like Dane Brugler and Field Yates projecting Manning to be the top QB in the NFL draft. And it's fair to assume it will take time for Manning to hit his stride, having just 95 career pass attempts heading into the Ohio State game.
While there were moments where his throwing motion was wonky, his accuracy was sporadic (especially on crossing routes), and his decision-making looked more like Eli's than Peyton's. He was still credited with four big-time throws - including that perfect deep ball to Endries. You could see the talent on Saturday; you just had to squint.
With that said, would I bet on Manning to win the Heisman? No, not this year at least. Sarkisian clearly didn't trust him, and it's not like you can blame the four new offensive line starters - Ohio State didn't get consistent pressure, sacking Manning once and never hitting him on a hurry. Patricia certainly deserves credit for how he deployed Caleb Downs, his coverage disguises, and his blitzes (particularly the coffee house stunts), but Manning's accuracy on layups was the biggest concern.
The Longhorns have a schedule that ranks No. 12 in strength of schedule, and they look like a team that should rely more heavily on their run game. So while a $10 winning bet on Manning to win the Heisman pays a $180 profit, I don't think this is his year.
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๐ Heisman Trophy odds favorite after Week 1
๐ฏ Garrett Nussmeier, LSU (+700)
When the Heisman Trophy odds opened months ago, it was Garrett Nussmeier who sat atop the board before Manning mania got out of control. On Saturday night in Death Valley, though I'm not sure Clemson can claim to be the real Death Valley anymore, Nussmeier looked like the guy who deserves all the publicity he's received.
Wearing LSU's prestigious No. 18, Nussmeier truly played like a future first-round pick - he leads the 2026 NFL Draft odds by a hefty margin. From his command at the line of scrimmage to his jaw-dropping ball placement to his subtle movements in the pocket, Nussmeier was the most impressive passer in the country on Saturday ... even if the numbers aren't spectacular.
Jayden Daniels' former backup went 28-for-38 (73.7%) with 230 yards and a score. Nussmeier was credited with just one big-time throw (should have been two had the refs not robbed him of the touchdown to Barion Brown), but he didn't have a single turnover-worthy play. That was his biggest issue last season as a first-time starter when he had 18 of them. He took what was there against a Clemson team that was No. 10 in SP+ and led by three potential first-round picks on defense.
I'm absolutely all aboard the Nuss Bus when it comes to him as an NFL QB. However, these odds are too short for me to feel comfortable with, given his limitations as a runner; something Heisman voters have favored in recent years.
Brian Kelly doesn't need him to put up numbers like he needed Daniels to a few years ago, so with a $10 winning bet on Nussmeier paying just a $70 profit, I'd hold out to get a better idea of the Heisman landscape before betting anyone shorter than +1000.
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๐ Top Heisman Trophy odds contender after Week 1
๐ John Mateer, Oklahoma (+1400)
Six of the last eight Heisman Trophy winners have been transfers, and John Mateer certainly stated his case to be the next one in his first start for Oklahoma. Obviously you can't put too much stock into Mateer's debut with the Sooners, given they played an FCS program (Illinois State).
Still, he did break former Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield's record for passing yards in a season opener by throwing for 392 against the Redbirds. The Washington State transfer also added three scores through the air and one on the ground while accounting for five big-time throws and finishing with an adjusted completion rate of 81.1%. Not too shabby for a QB who wasn't even ranked in the top 100 at his position coming out of high school.
Could Mateer be the next Washington State transfer QB to put up Heisman-level numbers after Cam Ward did for Miami last year? I wouldn't bet against it with Ben Arbuckle, his offensive coordinator with the Cougars, calling plays for him in Norman. Turning around Brent Venables' program helps with the narrative aspect of the Heisman race, too.
He's the type of electric talent that sets social media ablaze with his mobility and aggressiveness as a passer. But Mateer jumping to the second-shortest Heisman Trophy odds after carving up an FCS program is too rich for my blood. Let's see how he fares against Michigan in Week 2 before betting on a first-year SEC starter, especially when a $10 winning bet returns less on him ($140) than it does on more proven SEC QBs like LaNorris Sellers ($160) and DJ Lagway ($220).
๐ The best of the rest of the Heisman options
- LaNorris Sellers (+1600): Arguably the most physically gifted QB in the country, Sellers' combo of arm talent and explosiveness as a runner makes him one of the best Heisman bets after he made 16 big-time throws and forced 47 missed tackles as a redshirt freshman last season
- Cade Klubnik, Clemson (+1600): Week 1 was tough for Klubnik truthers (me), but he bounced back from an ugly game against Georgia last year to finish fifth in the country in big-time throws (28) and he still has a loaded wide receiver room, plus the ACC schedule is a lot weaker than the SEC
- Dante Moore, Oregon (+2200): The last two Oregon starting QBs were Heisman finalists, and Moore looked strong in his first start with the Ducks - three touchdowns, 82.6% adjusted completion rate - against a top-tier FCS team (Montana State), and two years ago as a freshman at UCLA, he had an impressive big-time throw rate (6.4%)
- DJ Lagway, Florida (+2200): As a true freshman, Lagway saved Florida's season last year and had an absurd big-time throw rate (8.8%) ... now as the clear QB1 in Gainesville, he's due for a breakout season, and we got a taste of it against an FCS team (LIU) in Week 1 with his three touchdown passes
- Tommy Castellanos, Florida State (+3000): If Manning's performance was the most shocking of Week 1, Castellanos' was second with the way he cooked Alabama in Gus Malzahn's offense - throwing for 152 and rushing for 78 - and his juice as a runner could help turn the Seminoles around
- Devon Dampier, Utah (+3500): Dampier was the most underrated transfer portal addition in the country after he ran for 19 touchdowns and threw 12 more for New Mexico last year, and Kyle Whittingham look like a genius for bringing him and offensive coordinator Jason Beck to the Utes - Dampier dazzled against UCLA with three touchdowns and five forced missed tackles
- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, California (OFF): If you stayed up for what we used to call Pac-12 After Dark viewing, you saw Cal's true freshman QB put on a show against Oregon State - Sagapolutele is tied with Mateer for the most big-time throws of Week 1 (5) - and it was so out of nowhere he's still not on the Heisman oddsboard
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โHeisman Trophy FAQs
Who is the Heisman Trophy favorite?
LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier (+700) is the new Heisman Trophy odds favorite. He initally opened as the favorite before Arch Manning surpassed him in the lead up to the season. Nussemeier's odds imply a 12.5% probability he will win the award.
How much did Arch Manning's Heisman Trophy odds move?
When the Heisman Trophy odds opened, Arch Manning had the second-shortest odds at +950 behind Garrett Nussmeier. In the months leading up to the season, Manning overtook Nussmeier as the favorite with +700 odds.
Manning's odds have since lengthened to +1800 following Texas' Week 1 loss to Ohio State. Those odds imply a 5.26% probability he will win the award.
Who won the Heisman Trophy last year?
Colorado's Travis Hunter was named the 2024 Heisman Trophy winner. His preseason odds were +3500.
When will the Heisman Trophy be decided?
The 2025 Heisman Trophy ceremony will be Saturday, Dec. 13, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
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