Florida vs. LSU Prediction, Odds & Picks: College Football Week 3 Best Bets
When it's Saturday night in Death Valley, it's hard to bet against the home team, which is why my Florida vs. LSU prediction is backing the Tigers to cover as a 7-point betting favorite as part of my college football picks.
The action gets started on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) from Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, La., in one of the biggest matchups of our college football predictions for Week 3.
🏈 Florida vs. LSU prediction
College football expert picks for Saturday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: LSU (-275 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: LSU -7 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 47 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Best bet: Garrett Nussmeier Under 281.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Florida vs. LSU best bet
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
🐯 LSU -7 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
It's difficult to get a read on either program heading into this game after Florida was upset at home by South Florida last week, essentially ending the Gators' College Football Playoff odds, and LSU looked discombobulated in a win against Louisiana Tech. But given how well LSU played on the road against Clemson to open the season, the Tigers likely won't be caught playing with their food again this week.
LSU's much-improved defense under Blake Baker will be the key to covering, with the Tigers ranked No. 26 in SP+ on defense behind the play of Whit Weeks, Harold Perkins Jr., and Mansoor Delane. That trio should give DJ Lagway issues with the Gators' offense ranking outside the top 50 in both EPA per pass and rush, epecially with the Tigers' defense ranking No. 10 in early downs EPA per play.
The Tigers are also expected to have center Braelin Moore back on offense, which should make a huge difference for an offense that has the Heisman Trophy odds favorite at QB in Garrett Nussmeier. With more consistency on offense and home-field advantage, LSU should be able to win a low-scoring game by more than a touchdown. If the Tigers do, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
💰 Best Florida vs. LSU player prop bet
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬇️ Garrett Nussmeier Under 281.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Yes, Nussmeier leads the Heisman Trophy odds and has LSU among the top college football championship odds contenders, but his numbers haven't been eye-popping. Though he's looked like a future first-round pick, the Nuss Bus has stalled out at times with LSU's offensive attack ranked No. 86 in EPA per pass.
He's also averaging well Under this 281.5-yard line being offered at BetMGM - the line is a few yards lower at our other best college football betting sites. Nussmeier has thrown for 232 and 237 in two games this season, and Florida's allowing just 156.0 passing yards per game.
In a matchup that could be defined by defense, a ball control approach from LSU wouldn't be shocking, and it would help this Under hit. If Nussmeier does throw for Under 281.5 yards for the third straight game, a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit.
📊 Florida vs. LSU odds: Week 3
Florida vs. LSU odds update live in real time.
📈 Florida vs. LSU opening odds
- Moneyline: Florida +250 | LSU -323
- Spread: Florida +8.5 (-110) | LSU -8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-110) | Under 49.5 (-110)
🔍 Florida vs. LSU odds analysis
LSU opened as an 8.5-point betting favorite, but a poor showing last week against Louisiana Tech has helped to drive this line down to -7, despite Florida coming off a loss to South Florida. Don't expect this line to see much more movement with LSU not playing up to its No. 3 ranking last week. The Over/Under likely won't see much more movement either, with it already dropping several points down to 47.
🚑 Florida vs. LSU injury report
| Florida | LSU |
|---|---|
| Dallas Wilson, WR (out) | Trey'Dez Green (questionable) |
| LJ McCray, EDGE (out) | Braelin Moore, OC (probable) |
🔢 Florida vs. LSU stats
Season stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
| Florida (1-1) | Statistic (per game) | LSU (2-0) |
|---|---|---|
| 35.5 | Points | 20.0 |
| 9.0 | Points allowed | 8.5 |
| +0.5 | Turnover margin | -0.5 |
| 236.5 | Passing yards | 242.5 |
| 166.5 | Rushing yards | 118.0 |
| 156.0 | Passing yards allowed | 163.0 |
| 82.5 | Rushing yards allowed | 44.5 |
| +1.4 | Net yards per play | +1.3 |
📺 Florida vs. LSU game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 12
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Tiger Stadium (Baton Rouge, La.)
- How to watch: ABC
❓ Florida vs. LSU FAQs
Who is favored to win Florida vs. LSU?
LSU is a -275 moneyline favorite against Florida.
What is the spread for Florida vs. LSU?
LSU is a 7-point betting favorite against Florida.
What is the Over/Under for Florida vs. LSU?
The Over/Under for Florida vs. LSU is 47.
What are the best bets for Florida vs. LSU?
The best bets for Florida vs. LSU are taking the Tigers to cover as a 7-point betting favorite and the Under on Garrett Nussmeier's 281.5 passing yards line (-115).
When is the Florida vs. LSU game?
The Florida vs. LSU game is Saturday, Sept. 12, at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, La., with kickoff slated for 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
How do college football odds work?
When betting on college football, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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