Duke vs. Virginia Prediction & Opening Odds for ACC Championship

My Duke vs. Virginia prediction breaks down the ACC Championship that kicks off on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET (ABC) from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C.

The opening odds have No. 18 Virginia as a 2.5-point betting favorite, but my early picks find value in the underdog Blue Devils as surprise participants after California beat SMU in Week 14. It’s all part of our college football conference championship week predictions.

Early Duke vs. Virginia prediction & betting preview

Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football picks for conference championship week.

Duke +2.5 (+100) ⭐⭐⭐

Duke needed three things to happen in Week 14 to punch its ticket to the ACC Championship. And now that it did, the Blue Devils are likely to be an overlooked bunch despite playing this game less than 150 miles from campus. 

Virginia beat Duke in Durham 34-17 just three weeks ago, while limiting the Blue Devils to just 255 total yards and 11 first downs. The Blue Devils were a 4.5-point betting favorite in that game, suggesting that oddsmakers viewed Duke as the better team at the time if that game were to have been played on a neutral field.

The Cavaliers certainly did not need an offensive breakout to beat Virginia Tech in the regular season finale after holding the Hokies to six first downs and 197 total yards. But it is concerning that Virginia could only complete 22 of 36 passes for 5.1 yards per pass against a Virginia Tech defense that entered ranked 119th or worse in yards per pass and completion percentage allowed. 

Duke backers are wise to hold out for a better number (+3 or better), as the line is likely to move in the direction of the regular season champion. 

But since FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering plus-money odds at a 50% implied probability, I am laying down an early $10 wager on the Blue Devils in the hopes of netting the same amount in profits.

Live Duke vs. Virginia odds: ACC Championship

See the latest college football odds for every game in conference championship week.

Duke vs. Virginia opening odds

• Moneyline: Duke +115 | Virginia -135
• Spread: Duke +2.5 (-110) | Virginia -2.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 57.5 (-110) | Under 57.5 (-110)

Duke vs. Virginia line movement

Virginia is a 2.5-point betting favorite across the market, but its juice to lay the points ranges from -110 to -122. That, coupled with the fact that the early wagers are 2/1 in favor of the Cavaliers, suggests that this line has a great chance to get to -3 or higher. 

I would certainly back Duke with more wagers if the line got to +3, and make my biggest wagers if it reached as high as +3.5.

The O/U thus far is the sharper of the two lines, with a 52/48 betting split slightly favoring the Over. 

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting apps with a total a full point higher than the rest at 58.5 compared to 57.5. But the even betting splits, and the fact that two of Virginia’s last three games have seen 34 or fewer total points scored, suggest that 58.5 would be the ceiling for this total throughout the week.

Duke vs. Virginia trends & betting notes

• Duke has not covered the spread in three games against ranked opponents this year
• Virginia has won nine of the last 10 head-to-head meetings against Duke with an average point differential of +14.2
• Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah has a 20-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the last nine games
• Duke and Virginia are each looking for their first ACC Championship Game victories in their second appearances since 2005

How to watch Duke vs. Virginia

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
• Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, N.C.)
• TV: ABC