Duke vs. North Carolina Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 13 Betting Preview
The Victory Bell is on the line when storied rivals Duke and North Carolina face off today at 3:30 p.m. ET (ACC Network) in a critical game for both teams' bowl eligibility - and potentially the last home game for Bill Belichick at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, N.C.
As rumors continue to swirl about the legendary coach's future at UNC, my Duke vs. North Carolina prediction expects the visiting Blue Devils to cover the spread as a 6.5-point betting favorite and end the Tar Heels' postseason hopes as part of our college football Week 13 predictions.
✅ Duke vs. North Carolina prediction & expert picks
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 13.
💵 Best Duke vs. North Carolina bets
🏈 Duke vs. North Carolina preview & score prediction
Both of these teams are trending in the wrong direction ahead of a crucial rivalry matchup that neither team can afford to lose - especially Belichick and the Tar Heels, who seem headed toward an inevitable divorce amid a season plagued by personal drama and reports of a dysfunctional locker room.
The results have spilled onto the field with North Carolina losing five of its last seven games. Its only two wins have come against Syracuse (which started a lacrosse player at QB) and Stanford, two of only four teams with a worse ACC record than UNC. And the team effectively ran out of gas by the end of last week's 28-12 loss to rival Wake Forest.
That doesn't bode well for a meeting this week with the Blue Devils, who profile as one of the worst matchups for UNC all season.
Expect bounce back for ACC's top passing attack
The best unit on the field in this matchup is easily Duke's offense, which ranks eighth nationally in passing yards per game (302.9) and 21st in yards per play (6.6) behind former Tulane star Darian Mensah, who leads the ACC in yards (3,007), passing TDs (25), and passer rating (159.9) while throwing just four interceptions in 10 starts.
The Blue Devils' up-tempo attack was stifled each of the last two weeks to effectively stall Duke's chances at a conference title, but I expect offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer to get Mensah back on track with quick throws to help neutralize the Tar Heels' burgeoning pass rush and force their linebackers and defensive backs to make tackles.
If UNC gets behind early, its offense simply isn't built to exploit Duke's shaky secondary with Gio Lopez's struggles to throw on target and the offensive line's inability to keep him clean. It all has me doubtful that North Carolina can keep its archrival within a touchdown. If Duke wins by at least seven points, a $10 bet at Caesars' -114 odds would return a $8.77 profit.
Score prediction: Duke 34, North Carolina 21
💡 More Week 13 predictions
Want more college football betting advice? Check out all of our college football analysis and expert predictions for Week 13.
🆚 Duke vs. North Carolina matchup to watch
Darian Mensah vs. North Carolina pass defense
Mensah is coming off his worst two-game stretch of the season against UConn and Virginia, both limiting the ACC passing leader below 225 yards on 35 or fewer attempts. It was the only time he'd been held under 265 yards all year long and followed two games in which he'd combined for 734 yards and six touchdowns on 85 attempts.
I'd be shocked if he's held down for a third straight game after averaging 321.5 passing yards through his first eight starts. UNC's defense has been stout against the run and has enjoyed a resurgent pass rush with 22 sacks over its last five games, but it hasn't been tested on the back end by a quarterback playing at Mensah's level.
Much like with our best bet on the spread, Caesars is offering the best odds for Mensah to clear his passing yards prop total of 272.5 yards - three yards lower than BetMGM with the same -115 odds (53.49% probability), which would turn a winning $10 bet into an $8.70 profit.
Best prop bet: Darian Mensah Over 272.5 passing yards (-115 via Caesars)
📊 Duke vs. North Carolina odds
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📈 Duke vs. North Carolina betting trends
| Duke | Statistic | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| 5-5 | W-L record | 4-6 |
| 4-6 | ATS record | 5-5 |
| 7-3 | O/U record | 3-7 |
| 6.6 | Yards per play | 4.9 |
| 6.2 | Yards allowed per play | 4.9 |
| +3 | Turnover margin | -2 |
| 2-3 | Last 5 games | 2-3 |
| L, 34-17 va. Virginia | Previous result | L, 28-12 vs. Wake Forest |
🌤️ Duke vs. North Carolina weather
After a night of thunderstorms and dense fog extending into the morning, the conditions should clear by the afternoon with mostly cloudy skies for this 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff in Chapel Hill. The temperature is expected to sit around 75 degrees with 7 mph winds blowing toward the northwest end zone and a 60% chance of rain.
📺 How to watch Duke vs. North Carolina
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 22
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Kenan Stadium (Chapel Hill, N.C.)
- TV: ACC Network
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