Duke vs. Boston College Picks, Predictions College Football Week 10: Can Eagles Cover a Big Number?

The Duke Blue Devils are 1-9 both straight up and against the spread in their last 10 games against ACC Atlantic Division opponents. Read on for our Duke-Boston College picks and predictions.

Henry John

Last updated: November 4, 2022 4:53 AM EDT • 4 min read

The Duke Blue Devils, 5-3, visit the 2-6 Boston College Eagles in one of three college football games on Friday night of Week 10. Check out our top Duke-Boston College picks below.

Boston College routed Duke to the tune of a 26-6 victory as a 3.5-point underdog in their last meeting in 2020. However, the Blue Devils, fresh off of a bye and a 45-21 rout of Miami two weeks ago enter the 2022 meeting as the much better team. The Eagles were dropped in a 13-3 loss to UConn last week.

Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 10 matchup between Duke and Boston College (odds via BetMGM and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Check out our top college football picks for Week 10.

Duke vs. Boston College Game Info

Date: Friday, Nov. 4, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Location: Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, MA
Weather: 57 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 7-8 mph winds S

Duke vs. Boston College Odds

Duke vs. Boston College Odds Analysis

Bettors are aligned on the Blue Devils and that helped the spread grow in their favor through the week. Duke opened as a consensus 9.5-point favorite but is now laying 11 points as of Friday morning. Seventy-four percent of the tickets account for 54% of the money on the visitors.

The Over/Under has dropped from 49 to 46. However, this appears to be reverse line movement with 60% of the tickets accounting for 97% of the handle on the Over.

Duke vs. Boston College Picks

Side: Boston College +10 (-110 via BetMGM)
Total: Under 47.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Prop: Duke Under 28.5 (-108 via FanDuel)

Duke vs. Boston College ATS Pick

Boston College +10 (-110) ★★★

For as bad as Boston College has been this season, it’s tough to fathom any scenario in which Duke is laying double-digits on the road against a Power 5 opponent. The Blue Devils might be coming off a 24-point win, but they were aided by eight turnovers from the Hurricanes in that game.

In fact, turnovers have been a key element of the Blue Devils’ success all season long. Duke enters Friday’s contest with a turnover margin of +1.9 per game. This ranks second in all of college football behind only USC.

For as disappointing of a season as it’s been for Eagles quarterback Phil Jurkovec, bettors can safely assume that he won’t commit eight turnovers in this game. Boston College will also be able to load up to stop the run defensively as the Blue Devils lack much in the way of a consistent passing attack.

Meanwhile, after failing to make any sort of impact in last week’s loss to UConn, star receiver Zay Flowers is due for a bounce-back performance. He figures to have a favorable matchup against a Duke defense that ranks 111th in passing yards allowed per game (280.9) this season.

Duke vs. Boston College O/U Pick

Under 47.5 (-110) ★★

The ineptitude of Boston College’s offense certainly is part of the decision to play the Under here. The Eagles have been held to 15 points or fewer in five of seven games against FBS-level competition this season. The upset win over Louisville is the only game in which Jeff Hafley’s offense has scored more than 21 points.

While BC has gone up against a number of defenses that are seen as being superior to Duke’s unit, the opposite is true for the Blue Devils. In addition to benefiting from such a lopsided turnover differential, Duke has enjoyed a pretty easy schedule to date.

It is worth noting that Duke only scored 20 points when it went up against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets won in the trenches and held Duke to only 142 yards rushing, more than 60 below the team’s average on the season.

Boston College has been very average when it comes to defending the run this season, but it’s difficult to trust Riley Leonard and the Duke passing attack to generate much of anything on a week-to-week basis.

Both teams also rank in the bottom half of college football in total plays per game. Bettors shouldn’t anticipate Friday’s game being played at a breakneck pace offensively.

Duke vs. Boston College Prop Pick

Duke Under 28.5 (-108) ★★★

Can the Blue Devils’ offense be trusted in the absence of multiple short-field setups off of turnovers? If Boston College can merely take care of the football, this game could very easily become a defensive battle.

It’s also worth rehashing the fact that BC’s defense is not a pushover. The numbers may not look great coming in, but the Eagles have also played teams with what are arguably four of the ACC’s best offensive attacks.

While the Eagles’ defense is not without its issues, Duke has yet to face really any sort of quality defensive competition. As such, surpassing 28 points feels like a lot to ask.

Where to Bet on Duke vs. Boston College Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Duke-Boston College picks made 11/1/2022 at 5 p.m. ET

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.