College Player Props Week 11: Best College Football Prop Bets This Week

With a Saturday slate that includes several games that should have a major impact on the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday, my college player props for Week 11 focus on my favorite plays in the four biggest games.

From fading a freshman QB against a top-ranked defense to backing the most underrated running back in the SEC to carry the load against an undefeated team, my college football Week 11 predictions have you covered for the four can't-miss matchups on Saturday.

🏈 College player prop bets for Week 11

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11 based on the latest college football odds.

💰 Best college football prop bets this week

⬇️ Bear Bachmeier Under 193.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The emergence of true freshman QB Bear Bachemeier has completely changed the outlook of BYU's season, but Texas Tech is the Cougars' toughest opponent of the season, and it doesn't help them that this is in Lubbock ... and it's the College GameDay matchup. Even if the Red Raiders fans can no longer throw tortillas, this atmosphere could shake BYU's young QB.

Bachmeier, who plays QB more like a fullback (he also wears No. 47), has been sporadic as a passer this season, with his physical running style proving to be his most valuable asset. Against Texas Tech, he could struggle to get into a rhythm. The Red Raiders' defense is No. 6 in the country in EPA per pass behind a pass rush led by David Bailey and Romello Height.

Those two have Texas Tech ranked seventh in the Power Four in sacks, and they should put plenty of pressure on Bachmeier, who has thrown for Over 193.5 passing yards in only three of eight games this season. If he goes under 193.5 again (53.27% probability), a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit.

⬆️ Ahmad Hardy Over 89.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Missouri is down to its third-string QB (freshman Matt Zollers), which means star running back Ahmad Hardy is going to have to be a bell cow against undefeated Texas A&M if the Tigers are going to keep this ranked SEC matchup close. We're talking 30-plus carries like it's the 1970s and Bear Bryant is calling plays, not Eliah Drinkwitz.

Coming off a bye, Drinkwitz will surely have Zollers as prepared as he can be, but going to the ground game early and often makes the most sense for Missouri. Not only because Hardy ranks top three in the country in rushing yards after contact (722), forced missed tackles (61), and 15-plus-yard runs, but because the Aggies have been susceptible against the run.

Mike Elko's defense is just No. 90 in EPA per rush and Hardy is the best running back the Aggies have faced since Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price combined for 162 rushing yards. If Hardy can go Over 89.5 on the ground for the seventh time in nine games, a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit.

⬇️ Mark Gronowski Under 132.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Iowa is about as Iowa as it gets this season, with an elite defense and an offense that can't seem to complete a pass. Even with Mark Gronowski transferring into Kirk Ferentz's program, nothing seems to have changed. The former South Dakota State star has seemingly been infected by the Hawkeyes and has completely forgotten how to play QB after throwing for over 8,000 yards with the Jackrabbits.

Not even Josh Allen pulling a Chad Powers and suiting up for Iowa on Saturday could fix this passing attack, if you can even call it that ... it's like if the goal of the air raid offense was to throw incompletions. Oregon is No. 1 in the country in EPA per pass and allowing the fewest passing yards per game in the nation (124.6).

Remove Oregon's matchup with Heisman Trophy odds contender Fernando Mendoza, and Big Ten QBs have averaged just 109.2 passing yards per game in the Ducks' other four conference matchups.

Time is a flat circle, and Iowa will never be a competent passing team ... which is why Gronowski is averaging just 118.2 passing yards per game this season. If this Under hits, a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit. 

🔥 Germie Bernard anytime TD (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Talk about a tough first game following the firing of Brian Kelly at LSU, and if that weren't a big enough distraction, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry has gone and made this coaching search a whole lot messier. And while former LSU and Alabama head coach Nick Saban is among the favorites by the LSU next coach odds, I can't imagine he'll want the gig ... especially after what the Crimson Tide are poised to do against the Tigers on Saturday.

Alabama is a double-digit favorite against an LSU team that has given up a combined 80 points in its last two games, losses to Texas A&M and Vanderbilt. In those games, the Tigers allowed seven different players to find the end zone. So, Alabama do-it-all playmaker Germie Bernard should have no problem finding pay dirt with the creative ways Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb have been getting him the ball lately.

Bernard, a potential first-round pick in April, is Ty Simpson's go-to target, and he's been deployed in the run game as of late. Across his last seven games, Bernard has caught six touchdowns and run for two more. If he can put six on the board against LSU, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.