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College Football Playoff Player Props: CFP Predictions, Picks for New Year's Day

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: January 1, 2024 3:34 PM EST • 4 min 19 sec read.

Michael Penix Jr. #9 of the Washington Huskies passes as we make our College Football Playoff player props predictions and picks for Monday's CFP slate on New Year's Day.
Michael Penix Jr. #9 of the Washington Huskies passes against the Utah Utes during the second quarter at Husky Stadium on November 11, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images via AFP.

The College Football Playoff has arrived, and we have you covered with our best college football player props for Alabama vs. Michigan and Texas vs. Washington based on the best NCAAF odds at the best college football betting sites of Monday's CFP slate on New Year's Day.

The College Football Playoff starts Monday with two incredible New Year's Day tilts: Alabama vs. Michigan and Texas vs. Washington in the CFP semifinals.

As emphasized in our New Year's Six predictions, both underdogs present live betting opportunities on Monday at the best sports betting apps due to key mismatches involving the core offensive players. There's clear value in the player props market prior to what will surely be an entertaining sendoff for the four-team CFP setup.    

In addition to our Alabama vs. Michigan prediction and our Texas vs. Washington prediction, here are our best college football player props for the College Football Playoff on Monday (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College Football Playoff player props for New Year's Day (Monday)

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College Football Playoff player props for Monday's CFP

Blake Corum Under 81.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is my favorite prop bet across the CFP semifinals, as it feels like name value is boosting this total higher than it should be for Michigan's top back.

Corum has been among the nation's best at finding the end zone (24 total TDs), but he's averaged just 79.1 yards per game on 4.7 YPC - both well below his season averages from 2022. In fact, he's cleared this total just five times all season, and it took him 20-plus carries to get there in four of those games.

I don't see him getting that type of workload - or production - against an Alabama defense that held Georgia to 78 rushing yards on 31 carries (2.5 YPC) and ranks 19th in rushing success rate entering the CFP. If the game gets away from Michigan early, as I suspect it might, this won't stand a chance.

Jalen Milroe Over 194.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is a disrespectful line for Milroe, whose passing prop is just four yards short of Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy's (190.5) despite outplaying him for months.

This number is depressed because of the Wolverines' statistically elite defense, which ranks first in scoring (9.5) and second in total defense (239.7 YPG) and pass defense (152.6 YPG). As I laid out in my preview of this game, I'm not sure I'm buying that at face value given the lack of quality offenses across the Big Ten this season.

Michigan surely hasn't faced a player like Milroe, who elevated his game midseason and averaged 235 passing yards over his final eight starts. He's tallied more than 190 yards in all but one game this season, and he threw for 192 yards against Georgia's vaunted defense in the SEC final.

The mismatch to exploit here is Milroe's cannon arm against the Wolverines' vulnerable secondary, which ranked 41st in explosive pass plays allowed despite facing seven teams ranked outside of the top 100 in passing explosiveness. That sounds like a recipe for disaster on Monday.

Xavier Worthy Under 73.5 receiving yards (-114 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Make no mistake, Worthy is one of the best receivers in college football and has first-round pick written all over him. That said, this is a tough matchup for the Longhorns star, who already enters Monday at less than full strength.

Though Worthy has cleared this total in eight of 12 games, he injured his ankle in the Big-12 final and has been limited in practice. He admitted Friday that he's not "100%" and that he still feels pain when running routes.

That's a bad sign ahead of Monday's matchup with the Huskies' pass defense, which doesn't appear formidable on paper but also faced a murderer's row of future NFL QBs in the Pac-12. There's still talent on the back end - namely star corner Jabbar Muhammad, who helped lock down Oregon star wideout Troy Franklin (34 yards) in the Pac-12 Championship.

In those eight games with at least 75 receiving yards, Worthy had a catch of 39-plus yards in six of them. That'll be a tall task against Muhammad & Co., which ranked in the top 20 at preventing explosive plays and creating "havoc" plays in the secondary.

I'd expect Texas to lean more on the run game and limit QB Quinn Ewers from forcing it into tight windows against this opportunistic secondary. That doesn't bode well for Worthy's chances of a big game in the Sugar Bowl.

Michael Penix Over 309.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is my least confident of the four prop plays for Monday's semifinals, if only because of how inconsistent Penix has been over the back half of the season. Still, I love the matchup against a tattered Texas secondary.

Entering Monday, the Longhorns rank 93rd in passing yards allowed (40.8 YPG) and surrendered 300-plus passing yards on four of their final seven games of the season. This group also struggles to prevent explosive gains through the air - which will be exacerbated by the first-half absence of safety Derek Williams Jr., who drew a targeting ejection in the Big-12 final.

That deep-ball vulnerability is a death knell against Penix, who had the highest average depth of target (11.1) and most attempts of 20-plus yards downfield (100) among QBs with at least 400 dropbacks - a key reason why he finished second in Heisman Trophy voting in 2023.

The strength of Texas' defense is its interior defensive line, so I'd bet on Washington coach Kalen DeBoer putting the ball in Penix's hands and spreading the field to mitigate the Longhorns' biggest strength. That's a good sign for this prop: in nine games with 35-plus attempts, Penix has thrown for 310-plus yards in seven of them.

Monday's College Football Playoff player props made Friday at 4 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is an award-winning sports writer, reporter, and editor with nearly a decade of experience in the industry, with previous stops at theScore, Action Network, Forbes, and ESPN before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's written about sports betting for the last five years, with a specialty in NFL, NBA, MLB, and collegiate futures markets and a weakness for novelty props and betting on the eventual runner-up. He's also an avid fantasy sports manager and commissioner and runs a sports card business on the side. He's a fiercely proud Oregon native and UNC alumnus, and he can't seem to stop betting on Ben Simmons to win MVP.