Top Over/Under College Football Bowl Odds, Picks: Marshall Defense to Stifle Scoring Against Run-Heavy UConn
We comb through the college football bowl game slate to find value in the Over/Under markets.
College football bowl games can be tricky when it comes to identifying the differences in personnel and motivation for teams compared to the regular season. We looked at the ledger to search for an edge on totals in bowl season.
Below, we look at our top Over/Under college football bowl bets (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Top Over/Under College Football Bowl Bets
- Wake Forest-Missouri Over 60.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
- UConn-Marshall Under 41 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Oregon-North Carolina Over 70.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
Top Over/Under College Football Bowl Predictions
Wake Forest-Missouri Over 60.5 (-105) ★★★★
The Tigers finished the regular season with the 24th-ranked defensive efficiency, but we won’t be seeing the same Mizzou defense in the Gasparilla Bowl. Three key members of the unit, Isaiah McGuire, D.J. Coleman, and Martez Manuel, have opted out of the bowl game to prepare for the NFL Draft.
That leaves a lesser group to defend against a Wake Forest offense that ranked 15th in the country at 36.2 points per game. Wake’s No. 73 defensive efficiency also faltered down the stretch as the Demon Deacons gave up 30-plus points in each of their final five games.
That’s a fortuitous combo for the Over against a Mizzou offense that looked much better after head coach Eli Drinwkitz turned play-calling duties over to an assistant coach down the stretch. Quarterback Brady Cook looked like a completely different player, throwing for seven touchdowns and running for 315 yards over his last three games.
DraftKings offers the best value on the Over, beating BetMGM with a lower total (60.5 vs. 61) and FanDuel with lower odds (-105 vs. -110).
Marshall-UConn Under 41 (-110) ★★★★
Despite featuring two teams that rank outside the FBS top 100 in points per game this season, the total for the Myrtle Beach Bowl is listed above 40 points. That makes it a target for Under bettors, as seven of the last nine Marshall games have fallen short of that number.
UConn appears in its first bowl game since 2015 despite one of the worst passing offenses in the country. The Huskies average barely more than 100 passing yards per game but boast a top-40 rushing offense. Running on Marshall should prove difficult, though, as the No. 4-ranked defensive efficiency in FBS is elite at stopping the run.
Marshall ranks 10th in the nation by allowing just 101.6 rushing yards per game. Because the Huskies are so one-dimensional, it’s difficult to imagine UConn finding much traction.
Though UConn games went 9-3 on Overs this season due to the Huskies’ 96th-ranked defensive efficiency, Marshall is even worse on the offensive end at No. 114 in FBS.
BetMGM and DraftKings offer -110 odds on a 41-point total, while FanDuel lists a less favorable number (40.5) with more attractive odds (-105 on the Under).
Oregon-North Carolina Over 70.5 (-110) ★★★★
A whopping seven of Oregon’s 12 games this season reached 70-plus total points, so it’s not far-fetched to imagine it happening in the Holiday Bowl against a North Carolina offense that expects to have Drake Maye active at quarterback.
Although both offensive coordinators have departed for other roles prior to the game, these are two offenses that ranked among the top 13 most efficient units in the nation this season.
Wide receiver Josh Downs is a notable loss for the UNC passing offense, as he opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft, but the bulk of the other opt-outs have come from the defenses on both sides of the matchup, which could further boost the environment for scoring.
Though the Tar Heels may struggle to carry their weight on the total after averaging just 18 points per game over their final three contests, UNC’s porous defense (119th in efficiency) should allow a Ducks team averaging 36.9 points to feast.
DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM all list the total at 70.5 with standard -110 odds.
Where to Bet on College Football Over/Under Bowl Picks
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College football Over/Under bowl picks made 12/13/2022 at 8:46 p.m. ET.
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