College Football Playoff Odds: Best G5 Bets After Boise State’s Loss to South Florida
Even with Ashton Jeanty set to play on Sundays for the Las Vegas Raiders, Boise State was the most popular choice aong the Group of Five to earn a College Football Playoff spot coming into the season ... even with the Broncos' College Football Playoff odds being just +180.
That didn't last long after the Broncos' 34-7 loss on the road against South Florida in Week 1, busting plenty of college football picks on the opening night of the first full slate of the season.
So now what? Well, the College Football Playoff selection committee doesn't make its final decision until Dec. 7, and there's still plenty of college football to be played, but Boise State now has a loss to a fellow Group of Five team.
Are the Broncos really the best G5 bet to make the CFP? Or is there value to be found elsewhere?
📊 College Football Playoff odds: Group of Five
College football odds to make the CFP as of Friday, Aug. 29; odds subject to change.
| Group of Five team | CFP odds | Profit ($10 bet) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | +550 via Caesars | $55 | 15.38% |
| Liberty | +650 via Caesars | $65 | 13.33% |
| Tulane | +800 via DraftKings | $80 | 11.11% |
| Memphis | +800 via DraftKings | $80 | 11.11% |
| Navy | +1000 via bet365 | $100 | 9.09% |
| James Madison | +1200 via bet365 | $120 | 7.69% |
| South Florida | +1200 via Caesars | $120 | 7.69% |
| UTSA | +1400 via Caesars | $140 | 6.67% |
| Toledo | +1800 via bet365 | $180 | 5.26% |
| Army | +1800 via FanDuel | $180 | 5.26% |
| UNLV | +2000 via DraftKings | $200 | 4.76% |
| Ohio | +2000 via Caesars | $200 | 4.76% |
| Buffalo | +2000 via Caesars | $200 | 4.76% |
| Texas State | +2200 via FanDuel | $220 | 4.35% |
| Louisiana | +2200 via Caesars | $220 | 4.35% |
🏆 Best Group of Five College Football Playoff bet
🌊 Tulane (+1200)
Tulane doesn't have a Jeanty it can lean on to carry it to the College Football Playoff; star running back Makhi Hughes left for Oregon in the transfer portal. However, the Green Wave do have a star in the making - he just happens to spend his time on the sideline.
Jon Sumrall is a future SEC head coach, and everybody knows it. The 43-year-old posted a 23-4 record in two seasons at Troy before a 9-5 campaign in his Tulane debut last season. Now, Sumrall has a chance to take his team to the CFP before setting himself up for a major payday from the SEC.
The former Kentucky linebacker has the defensive pieces to win the American Conference, with transfers like Santana Hopper (Appalachian State) and Mo Westmoreland (UTEP) joining a unit led by Kameron Hamilton and Bailey Despaine. Tulane needs transfers on offense - Jake Retzlaff (BYU), Maurice Turner (Louisville), Omari Hayes (FAU) - to step up, though, to win a vicious G5 conference.
While the American is the best Group of Five conference in terms of talent, that could work against its winner earning a CFP spot, as the conference potentially cannibalizes itself during the regular season. That's the biggest reason why the Green Wave have longer odds than Boise State (Mountain West) and Liberty (Conference USA), despite joining the Broncos as the only two G5s to be ranked top 50 by SP+ entering the season.
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💰 Best Group of Five College Football Playoff value bets
👑 James Madison (+1200)
The only Group of Five teams ranked higher than James Madison by SP+ entering the season are Boise State, Tulane, and Memphis. Unlike those three, the Dukes have an easier path with a schedule that sits No. 104 in strength of schedule rating.
In his first season leading JMU last year, Bob Chesney managed to go 9-4, even after Curt Cignetti took most of the Dukes' best players with him for Indiana's run to the College Football Playoff. The downside, though, is that Chesney's star from last year, QB Alonza Barnett III, suffered an ACL tear in the regular season finale. That made his and the Dukes' outlook cloudy entering the season.
But just days ago, Chesney announced Barnett is cleared for contact. And even if Barnett takes time to get back to the same level he was at, Chensey brought in his former starting QB at Holy Cross, Matthew Sluka. The Dukes also have a dangerous ground game led by running back George Pettaway and offensive lineman Pat McMurtrie, and a defense with All-Sun Belt caliber players like Jacob Thomas and Trent Hendrick.
If the American eats itself alive, and JMU handles business against Liberty in nonconference play and Louisiana and Texas State in the Sun Belt, it will be about as good of a G5 CFP option as there is come December.
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🐂 South Florida (+1200)
Two years ago, Byrum Brown was getting NFL draft buzz following a jaw-dropping sophomore season in which he and Heisman winner Jayden Daniels were the only two players in the country to throw for 3,000-plus yards and rush for 800-plus yards. Then Brown dealt with injuries last season that derailed South Florida's breakout year under Alex Golesh.
Could this be the year? And could Brown be this year's version of Jeanty, as a transcendent talent that wills a team to the CFP? It certainly looked like it during the Bulls' Week 1 win over Boise State in which Brown repeatedly ran through defenders, and even had his best run called back, while hitting deep shots down the field.
Two years ago, the 6-foot-3, 232-pound Brown forced 48 missed tackles and averaged 4.33 rushing yards after contact while accounting for 20 big-time throws. If he puts up those types of numbers again, South Florida could make a CFP run. Todd Orlando's defense looked much improved against the Broncos, too, with players like Jhalyn Shuler, De'Shawn Rucker, and Jonas Duclona shining - it helps that the Bulls are No. 12 in returning production.
While the Bulls already have one of the best G5 wins of the season, their schedule could be the death of them. They have to play Florida and Miami next and have Memphis, UTSA, and Navy in conference play. Brown is the transcendent talent capable of carrying USF to the CFP, but they'd essentially have to go undefeated the rest of the way if they can't upset the Gators or Hurricanes.
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🎯 Best Group of Five College Football Playoff Long Shot bet
🎈 Western Kentucky (+3500)
There aren't a lot of great options to trust outside of the American, James Madison, Boise State, and Liberty when betting on the Group of Five CFP team. There's just such a noticeable talent difference between those teams and the rest, - but as we saw last season when Liberty lost to Kennesaw State, anything can happen in college football.
That's what makes Western Kentucky an interesting long-shot option with these +3500 odds via bet365. The Hilltoppers play in arguably the easiest G5 conference, Conference USA, which is why Liberty's odds are so short despite having a new starting QB in Ethan Vasko and ranking outside the top 50 in returning production.
Although Western Kentucky doesn't return a ton from last season's 8-6 team, that's nothing new for head coach Tyson Helton, who has a history of getting the most out of new coordinators and transfer QBs. This time, he went to Abilene Christian to land both offensive coordinator Rick Bowie and QB Maverick McIvor.
In Week 0, we got a taste of how good this offense can be when the Hilltoppers defeated Sam Houston, 41-24, behind a 401-yard passing performance from McIvor. Former FCS All-American Matthew Henry (Western Illinois) was also uncoverable. Could this offense carry the Hilltoppers to a historic CFP berth? It's unlikely, but it's not impossible with a schedule that ranks No. 101 in strength of schedule.
❓ College Football Playoff FAQs
Which teams have the shortest College Football Playoff odds?
Ohio State (-380), Penn State (-330), Texas (-320), and Georgia (-250) have the shortest College Football Playoff odds. Their odds imply they all have better than a 71% probability of making the CFP.
Which Group of Five team is the favorite to make the College Football Playoff?
Boise State remains the favorite to make the College Football Playoff among Group of Five teams. The Broncos' +550 odds imply a 15.38% probability they'll earn a CFP bid.
How many teams make the College Football Playoff?
The College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams last season, with the top five ranked conference champions automatically qualifying for the CFP. The College Football Playoff selection committee decides the remaining seven at-large bids.
The four highest-ranked teams will receive a first-round bye in the playoff, with the CFP switching to straight seeding this year.
Who made the College Football Playoff last year?
Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, Arizona State, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Tennessee, Indiana, SMU, and Clemson were the programs selected to participate in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.
When does the College Football Playoff start?
The 2025-2026 College Football Playoff begins Friday, Dec. 19, with the first of four first-round games; the other three will be played Saturday, Dec. 20. The quarterfinal games will then be played on Wednesday, Dec. 31, and Thursday, Jan. 1.
The semifinal games will be Thursday, Jan. 8, and Friday, Jan. 9, with the championship game slated for Monday, Jan. 19, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
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