BYU vs. Texas Tech Prediction & Opening Odds for Big 12 Championship

The Big 12 Championship will serve as a rematch between two programs that have been atop the conference all season, and with a College Football Playoff berth on the line, my BYU vs. Texas Tech prediction expects another low-scoring game.

No. 5 Texas Tech is a 13-point betting favorite against No. 11 BYU for Saturday's Big 12 Championship at noon ET (ABC) from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, but my early picks and college football conference championship predictions are focused on the game total with such a large spread.

Early BYU vs. Texas Tech prediction & betting preview

Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football picks for conference championship week.

Under 50.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Texas Tech is a near two-touchdown favorite after beating BYU 29-7 at home in Lubbock, Texas, a month ago. And while I expect the Red Raiders to once again cruise to a victory, the Under is a play I'm more comfortable with, given how both of these defenses stack up in the Big 12 Championship.

Led by Heisman contender Jacob Rodriguez at linebacker and one of the best defensive lines in the country, Texas Tech is No. 4 in defensive SP+ and has allowed more than 17 points just twice this season. The Red Raiders are poised to pressure BYU freshman QB Bear Bachmeier once again and frazzle the 19-year-old in a championship atmosphere.

BYU's defense should do its part, too, with its back seven playing elite football right now - the Cougars are allowing the second-fewest PPG (17.8) in the Big 12 behind Texas Tech (11.3). These are two of the best defenses in the country, and these teams combined for just 36 total points to hit the Under on a game total of 50.5 the first time around.

If the Under cashes this time (52.38% probability), a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.

Live BYU vs. Texas Tech odds: Big 12 Championship

See the latest college football odds for every game for conference championship week.

BYU vs. Texas Tech opening odds

• Moneyline: BYU +325 | Texas Tech -425
• Spread: BYU +11.5 (-110) | Texas Tech -11.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 50 (-110) | Under 50 (-110)

BYU vs. Texas Tech line movement

Texas Tech opened as an 11.5-point betting favorite at our best college football betting sites, but with the public all over the Red Raiders, this spread has ballooned. Clearly, early bettors love Texas Tech after they beat BYU by 22 on Nov. 8, and it certainly helps that this neutral-site championship game is far closer to Lubbock than Provo.

With Tech handling business the first time around, having the edge on paper as the No. 3-ranked team by SP+, plus likely having more of the crowd behind it, I'd bet the Red Raiders to cover at any number under 14 points. However, this game total remains between 50 and 50.5, and I think that's the better play. I'd take the Under on anything above 47.5.

BYU vs. Texas Tech trends & betting notes

• Texas Tech is 6-3 betting the Under against Power Four programs
• The Red Raiders are 10-2 ATS, including 6-0 when favored by double digits against Power Four teams
• BYU is 9-3 ATS overall, and 5-3 betting the Under when an underdog or favored by single digits
• Texas Tech has allowed just 9.8 PPG in games played in Texas this season

How to watch BYU vs. Texas Tech

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
• Kickoff: Noon ET
• Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
• TV: ABC