Big Ten Best Bets for Week 11: Expert ATS Predictions & Player Props This Week

My Big Ten best bets for Week 11 look to take advantage of this weekend’s seven-game conference slate.

Three of my college football Week 11 predictions include games involving the three Big Ten teams ranked in the top six of the AP poll (No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Indiana, No. 6 Oregon).

🏈 Big Ten best bets & expert picks: Week 11

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11 based on the latest college football odds.

🔮 My best Big Ten predictions this week

🐾 Northwestern +14.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Northwestern looks to end a 12-game losing streak against AP-ranked opponents, while USC is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite in games played in California. Despite both of those trends working against the Wildcats, there is a path for them to use a stout defense to stay within this big number.

Northwestern is 5-2-1 ATS this year, with its biggest road upset being the win at Penn State that led directly to James Franklin’s firing. 

Before the Wildcats’ bye last week, they held Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola to 6.4 yards per attempt and a 54.3 QBR. Considering the Cornhuskers entered that game ranked in the top 20 in passing down Success Rate and Passing Success Rate, that bodes well for Northwestern being able to slow down USC’s vaunted passing attack.  

Caesars is one of the only best sports betting sites charging the standard -110 juice at 52.38% implied odds to back Northwestern at +14.5. If it covers, my $10 wager would net $9.09 in profits.

⬇️ Oregon-Iowa Under 41 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

When Iowa is an underdog, it knows how to turn those games into rockfights. The Under has cashed in each of Iowa’s last eight games as ‘dogs, and the five games at Kinnick Stadium this season have seen an average of 44.6 points scored. 

Ducks quarterback Dante Moore is expected to start after leaving the team’s last game against Wisconsin with a facial injury. But Moore has struggled since the team’s bye, averaging just 216 yards per game with a 5-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a completion percentage 10 points lower than before the bye.

The total at most best sports betting apps is a half-point lower at 40.5. I am taking advantage of the best number and price at Caesars, whose -110 odds at a 52.38% implied probability would return $9.09 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

🐻 UCLA -1.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

UCLA is 3-1 in its last four games, with its only loss in that span coming against an Indiana team that could be the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff.

While the Bruins could have shown better than losing by 50 points, it was a bad matchup for them, given how reliant they had been on explosive plays. UCLA combined for 29 explosive plays in wins over Maryland, Michigan State, and Penn State, but Indiana had held all opponents to 15 combined rushes of 10-plus yards.

UCLA should get back to creating chunk plays against Nebraska, which will help it buck the trend of going 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite.

I am backing the Bruins despite the line movement going away from them (-2.5 to -1.5). FanDuel is charging -110 odds at a 52.83% implied probability to lay the points with the favorite.

💰 My best Big Ten player props this week

⬇️ Ethan Grunkemeyer player prop: Under 144.5 passing yards (-117) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Penn State faces an Indiana team that is soaring to heights the program has not seen in decades. The Hoosiers are coming off their first road win as an AP top-five team since 1945, and a menacing defense that entered last week with an FBS-best 11.4% sack percentage has been a big reason for their success.

Grunkemeyer has thrown for 93 and 145 yards in his two starts. While his 82.3 QBR against Ohio State was respectable, Penn State should be able to rely on its ground game more by staying closer early than it did in Columbus last week.

Though one must pay up more to back the Under through Caesars’ -117 price at 53.92% implied odds, it has the best number, as Grunkemeyer’s O/U is slightly lower at 143.5 elsewhere. If he finishes with 144 or fewer passing yards, my $10 winning wager would net $8.55 in profits.

⬇️ Julian Sayin player prop: Under 2.5 passing touchdowns (+132) ⭐⭐⭐

Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin has thrown for three or more touchdowns in three of the last four games, and his five games with 300-plus passing yards are the most of any Big Ten quarterback.

However, I find the plus-money price of +132 at 43.10% implied odds for this wager appealing, as it should not take a full-throttle offensive approach to dispatch Purdue, one of the conference’s two 0-6 teams in league play.

The Boilermakers have allowed just one passing touchdown over the last three weeks. In addition, no quarterback has thrown for three or more touchdowns against them in any game this season, even amid a three-game losing streak earlier this year when they allowed an average of 47.3 points per game.

A $10 winning wager through FanDuel’s best odds would return $13.20 in profits if Sayin finishes with two or fewer passing touchdowns.