Auburn vs. Maryland Prediction, Pick & Odds: Music City Bowl
Don't expect a barn-burner when the Auburn Tigers and Maryland Terrapins face off Saturday in the 2023 Music City Bowl, as we detail in our top Auburn vs. Maryland prediction based on the best college football odds at the best college football betting sites.
Opt-outs are nearly unavoidable during bowl season, and Saturday's Music City Bowl between the Auburn Tigers (6-6) and Maryland Terrapins (7-5) is no exception. A high-profile opt-out is defining this showdown for Saturday's underdogs.
Concluding his career with the Terrapins, Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has secured the title of the Big Ten's all-time leading passer. Last week, he decided not to participate in the 2023 Music City Bowl.
As a result of Tagovailoa's absence, the betting market at our best sportsbooks shifted in Auburn's favor, though it still has its own issues on the offensive side of the ball.
As part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here is our best Auburn vs. Maryland prediction and our college football picks for Saturday's Music City Bowl (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Auburn vs. Maryland prediction: Music City Bowl
Under 47.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The total for this game opened at 48.5 and reached as high as 50.5 across our best sports betting sites before last week's news that Tagovailoa would opt out of the Music City Bowl. That sent this total tumbling to 47 at most books - though we're targeting a rogue 47.5 at BetMGM, which hasn't gone far enough ahead of this potential rock fight.
As talented of a passer as Tagovailoa is, he didn't set the Big Ten passing record by accident. The Terrapins built their offense around his arm, ranking 11th in passing rate while running it just 349 times all season - tied for the eighth-fewest attempts in college football.
Without him, Maryland hands the reins to QB Billy Edwards Jr., a 6-foot-4 sophomore who had more rushes (16) than dropbacks (10) in 2023 but scored six times on the ground. That said, his 10 passes netted two yards and an interception, and he didn't show much in his one legitimate start (166 yards, 1 TD) in 2022, either.
Coach Mike Locksley has said the plan is to run the same offense with Edwards, except without top tight end Corey Dyches (49 catches, 491 yards). That's a tough ask against an Auburn defense that is down two corners but still features two NFL-bound safeties in Jaylin Simpson and Zion Puckett - both of whom are playing on Saturday.
Auburn's issue faces the opposite issue, ranking 16th in rushing success rate but an abysmal 103rd in passing success rate with the bottom-15 pass rate. The Tigers averaged just 157.1 passing yards per game in the regular season - the fewest by any SEC team since the shortened 2020 season.
This offense clearly prefers for QB Payton Thorne - who has picked up 520 of his 2,191 total yards with his legs - to keep the ball on the ground alongside top rusher Jarquez Hunter (865 yards), who is one of five Auburn players with 200-plus yards rushing. That'll be even truer Saturday without four receivers from an already thin positional group.
That offensive approach from Auburn won't be a major issue for Maryland, which allowed the ninth-lowest explosive run rate and ranked 26th in fewest rushing TDs allowed (13). The Terrapins suffered more attrition in the secondary, but the Tigers are ill-suited to take advantage.
With this total of 47.5 at BetMGM, we're catching a number just one point lower than it opened, despite Tagovailoa opting out and both offenses looking like poor fits to capitalize on what vulnerabilities do exist. The clock may even play a factor here if these teams lean into the run game as much as I suspect they might.
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Auburn vs. Maryland best odds
BetMGM (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 47 | Under 46.5 | Under 47.5 | Under 47 | Under 47 |
| -110 | -105 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
All of our best sports betting apps moved this total significantly after Tagovailoa opted out for Maryland, but BetMGM remains the only book offering Under 47.5 with standard -110 odds. That's the wager we'd recommend making for the 2023 Music City Bowl.
If you like the Over - no offense taken - your best number is a rogue 46.5 at FanDuel, which has been an outlier throughout the college football bowl season.
Either way, I'd recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to see which book has the best bonus for betting on the Music City Bowl.
Editor's note: Get ready for the launch of Vermont sports betting with our best Vermont sportsbook promos, and be sure to download the best Vermont sports betting apps! 21+ and present in VT. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Auburn vs. Maryland odds
Auburn vs. Maryland odds analysis
Auburn opened as a 2.5-point favorite across our best sportsbooks, but Tagovailoa's absence highlighted a rash of opt-outs that nudged this line in favor of the Tigers.
While we're looking to target the total on this game, you have plenty of options as a spread bettor. Those backing the favorite can still find Auburn -6.5 at FanDuel, and it's the only book offering -110 odds at that number. Underdog bettors can catch Maryland +7 with -110 odds at either Caesars or bet365.
Music City Bowl game info
- When: Saturday, Dec. 30 at 2 p.m. ET
- Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville
- How to watch: ABC
- Weather: 48 degrees, 7-mph winds, 0% chance of precipitation
Auburn-Maryland prediction made Wednesday at 4:20 p.m. ET.
Check out our best college football betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
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