Army vs. Navy Game Total Trends: Is the Under Still the Best Bet?
Among the most jaw-dropping stats in the history of betting is the Army vs. Navy game total trends, with the Under hitting for 16 straight years from 2006 to 2021. But does the trend still hold up nowadays as both of these triple-option offenses modernize?
With the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy on the line for Saturday's 3 p.m. ET (CBS) matchup from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, I'm breaking down the history of the Army vs. Navy game total trends and making my college football predictions for this year's Over/Under in one of college football's most prestigious games.
Army vs. Navy game total history
| Year | Game total | Final score (winner) | Result (O/U) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 39.5 | 31-13 (Navy) | Over |
| 2023 | 28 | 17-11 (Army) | Push |
| 2022 | 32 | 20-17 (Army) | Over |
| 2021 | 35.5 | 17-13 (Navy) | Under |
| 2020 | 36 | 15-0 (Army) | Under |
| 2019 | 41.5 | 31-7 (Navy) | Under |
| 2018 | 38.5 | 17-10 (Army) | Under |
| 2017 | 44.5 | 14-13 (Army) | Under |
| 2016 | 46.5 | 21-17 (Army) | Under |
| 2015 | 50 | 21-17 (Navy) | Under |
| 2014 | 55.5 | 17-10 (Navy) | Under |
| 2013 | 49.5 | 34-7 (Navy) | Under |
| 2012 | 55.5 | 17-13 (Navy) | Under |
| 2011 | 55 | 27-21 (Navy) | Under |
| 2010 | 52.5 | 31-17 (Navy) | Under |
| 2009 | 41 | 17-3 (Navy) | Under |
| 2008 | 43 | 34-0 (Navy) | Under |
| 2007 | 64.5 | 38-3 (Navy) | Under |
| 2006 | 50 | 26-14 (Navy) | Under |
Army vs. Navy total odds movement
- Opening total: Over 39.5 (-110) | Under 39.5 (-110)
- Current total: Over 38.5 (-108) | Under 38.5 (-112)
- Percentage of bets and handle on the Under: 53.8%/77.7% (via theScore Bet)
- Percentage of bets and handle on the Over: 46.2%/22.3% (via theScore Bet)
Based on early public action, the Under is once again a massively popular bet for the Army-Navy game. That's led to our best college football betting sites already dropping the game total down a point, and I don't suspect the public will back off betting the Under, with the history of it hitting and both of these service academies being known for running the triple-option.
However, I don't expect sportsbooks to move the game total much more, if at all. Despite the public loving the Under because of the history of it hitting, and the perception of these programs' offenses, it's already set lower than it should be based on how these teams stack up this season.
Army vs. Navy total prediction
See the latest college football odds for every college football game in real time.
What caused the Under trend?
There are a couple of reasons the Army-Navy game has a history of the Under hitting. First of all, the game total closed at 50 or higher seven times between 2006 and 2015, and was never lower than 41 between 2006 and 2017. That was due in part to Navy pretty consistently having a prolific QB and Army being a horrendous program that got blasted by the Midshipmen most years.
During the first 10 years of the Under trend, Navy won every single game, but during the tail end of the Midshipmen's win streak, Jeff Monken took over at Army (2014) and rebuilt the Black Knights into a competitive program. Army getting good coincided with Navy taking a dip under former head coach Ken Niumatalolo.
From 2016 to 2022, Army went 5-2 against Navy, with Niumatalolo putting together a 41-46 overall record leading the Midshipmen during that stretch, a far cry from his 68-36 record between 2008 and 2015. But Brian Newberry replaced Niumatalolo in 2023 and is 24-12 as head coach.
Why has it changed?
At the same time, our best sports betting sites started to adjust to the Under trend. From 2006 to 2017, the average closing game total for Army vs. Navy was 50.6. From 2018 to 2024, it clocked in at 35.9.
And after 16 straight years of the Under hitting, it's gone 0-2-1 in the last three seasons, thanks to both teams adapting their triple-option offenses to succeed in the modern age of college football.
Best bet: Over 38.5 (-108)
Though Army doesn't have the offense this year that it did last year with Bryson Daily gone, the Black Knights have enough to take advantage of Navy's defense. The Midshipmen are allowing 26.9 points per game, the fifth-most yards per game in the American Conference (398.7), and rank just No. 88 in defensive SP+.
Meanwhile, Navy's offense remains dynamic thanks to QB Blake Horvath, slotback Eli Heidenreich, and fullback Alex Tecza; those three have the Midshipmen sitting No. 27 in offensive SP+ and averaging 32.5 points and 434.7 yards per game.
Navy has been one of the best Over teams in the country this season at 8-3 because its offense is potent and its defense is lackluster. That should help Army do its part for the Over to hit, and it doesn't hurt that the Black Knights have found their offensive groove in recent weeks, and have hit the Over in two straight.
If the Over in the Army vs. Navy game hits for the third time in four years (51.92% probability), a $10 bet at Caesars pays a $9.26 profit. SP+ projects the game total to hit 56 points.
How to watch Army vs. Navy: 2025 Commander-In-Chief's Trophy
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 13
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
- TV: CBS
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